HoarfrostHubb Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Looks like a storm with decent amounts of precip will be affecting most of New England Saturday and Sunday. Details remain to be seen 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 12-24" Boston 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: 12-24" Boston Can always adjust up if needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Now we know who to blame when this trends into a turd for most of us. But....no guts, no glory. Anyways, all joking aside, the EPS have been remarkably consistent. GEFS have been pretty consistent too, but definitely have ticked south since 12/18z yesterday when they were bringing the ULL up into NW PA and right over SNE/CNE. Still, even with the south trend, differences remain between the EPS and the GEFS. EPS are bringing in the ULL at a lower latitude and also sliding it more ENE while the GEFS bring it in higher and also move it more NE....they swing it from central PA up to SE MA and into the gulf of Maine while the EPS move it from near the PA/MD line ENE to just south of LI to ACK. These are trends/tracks to keep in mind today and going forward. If you are in SNE, you really want to keep the ULL at the latitude of about Philly while it is still on land...it can swing more north once it;s moving offshore, but you don't want the ULL over, say, AVP (Scranton, PA) while it is still that far west. On the flip side, an AVP to SNE track of the ULL would work for NNE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 This has Dec 3rd written all over it and given that Hunchie started the thread, it has been said it shall be done. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 The differences are even more stark in the OP runs at 06z....I showed them side by side below. Notice how much more ridging is bending back north of the ULL on the Euro....this is basically acting as a pseudo block. It forces the ULL more eastward with time underneath it. It will get resistance if it tries to lift north into that block so it takes the path of least resistance which is more eastward. The GFS doesn't have as much....also note how much further north the ULL is on the GFS. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Now we know who to blame when this trends into a turd for most of us. But....no guts, no glory. Anyways, all joking aside, the EPS have been remarkably consistent. GEFS have been pretty consistent too, but definitely have ticked south since 12/18z yesterday when they were bringing the ULL up into NW PA and right over SNE/CNE. Still, even with the south trend, differences remain between the EPS and the GEFS. EPS are bringing in the ULL at a lower latitude and also sliding it more ENE while the GEFS bring it in higher and also move it more NE....they swing it from central PA up to SE MA and into the gulf of Maine while the EPS move it from near the PA/MD line ENE to just south of LI to ACK. These are trends/tracks to keep in mind today and going forward. If you are in SNE, you really want to keep the ULL at the latitude of about Philly while it is still on land...it can swing more north once it;s moving offshore, but you don't want the ULL over, say, AVP (Scranton, PA) while it is still that far west. On the flip side, an AVP to SNE track of the ULL would work for NNE. This is why i'm not sold on this for NNE, If it ends up on that track, It will end up moving the SLP ENE past 40/70 while we need it to track Into the GOM or just east of there on a more NNE track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Not sure how much this means for down the road and for us but one thing I've noticed is the NAM (and even Euro) seem to be much stronger with this system as it develops and slowly moves through the Missouri Valley. In fact, both the NAM and Euro are indicating the possibility of a pretty hefty band of snow setting up across parts of MO, IA, and IL. Some definitive differences between the NAM and GFS begin to develop through the day Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This has Dec 3rd written all over it and given that Hunchie started the thread, it has been said it shall be done. I'll take 30" again. Wicked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The differences are even more stark in the OP runs at 06z....I showed them side by side below. Notice how much more ridging is bending back north of the ULL on the Euro....this is basically acting as a pseudo block. It forces the ULL more eastward with time underneath it. It will get resistance if it tries to lift north into that block so it takes the path of least resistance which is more eastward. The GFS doesn't have as much....also note how much further north the ULL is on the GFS. Will is the High pressure spot/ any shifting east l play a significant part in wether and where a CF showed up seems it may be key for my area (lower elevation) on GEFS seems it definitely is in less favorable spot last run , not unworkable but if it trends more guess my point is, doesn’t the 495 into Nashua area need a good positioned high with this storm given deep E flow and marginal airmass 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will is the High pressure subtly shifting east last 24 hours and does that positioning play a significant part in wether and where a CF showed up seems it may be key for my area (lower elevation) I haven't seen much of a shift on the EPS in the past 36 hours...if anything it shifted west since yesterday at 12z....but the 12z EPS run had the high pretty far east compared to all its other runs. The more important trend is the low has trended east....on both the EPS and GEFS....GEFS have trended east more...the EPS have been fairly consistent. But even the EPS hae trended form a low position near ACY at 06z Sunday to about 75-100 miles offshore. The GEFS have trended from a low near Trenton NJ at 06z Sunday to south of LI now....north of the EPS still, but not nearly as far west of the EPS that it was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: This has Dec 3rd written all over it and given that Hunchie started the thread, it has been said it shall be done. That was cold though. We don’t have that with this. That’s why” It’s Tricky” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 gfs improving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 12z GFS is going to be pretty amped this run and further west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 We should have a semantics- based rule that no noun in the ilk of the word "threat" shall be used in a topic header regarding a weather event, unless the target occurrence actually threatens us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Might want to be New Ipswich to Mitch on this run. Maybe down to ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS is going to be pretty amped this run and further west too. Looks further south with the ull and pops the secondary earlier. Could be a hugger with the secondary though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That was cold though. We don’t have that with this. That’s why” It’s Tricky” Well now that was just a remarkably lucid, well-reserved .. polished, analytic consideration on your part. Considering the source ? impressive - Obi Wan has taught you well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 It’s stronger so at least more dynamics at play for interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Well now that was just a remarkably lucid, well-reserved .. polished, analytic consideration on your part. Considering the source ? impressive - Obi Wan has taught you well We know our stuff. We like to have fun. Correct the terrible FV3 thermals and that’s a boob sagger, Deck snapper for many with elevation away from beaches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 NE coastline crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 The GFS is an absolute crush job up north...smoked with snow. SOme prolific totals with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Crush job ORH to srn NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looks further south with the ull and pops the secondary earlier. Could be a hugger with the secondary though. Yeah the ULL definitely trended south....it's wobbling around though on the orientation of it, so it does spawn a secondary closer to the coast initially. But eventually it ends up further south than the 06z run....verbatim still a bit warm for most in SNE in the lowest 100mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 pretty juiced up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Yeah ...anyway, I realize I've been mentioning 1992 in my own rites as of late, but my inclusion of that - for the record - was purely objective in that just at a 'superficial impression' it does bare resemblance. Not sure how far to take that though. I don't know if this event will pull anything close to that... there were tides and coastal wind problems with 1992 that were making that a multi-facet impact, and adding to its historic profile. etc..etc.. I think that was a spring tide too? Don't quote but something helped elevate the seas - yes it may have just been longevity/long shore fetch lasting for 30 hours and maybe just a bigger ISE than usual that did it too.. Anyway, this system is lacking surface and critical thickness depth, baroclinic gradients ( different subject matter than geopotential height compression) . We have amorphous frontal slopes and definitions and you really need that in the total cyclone genesis antecedence. We can make up for it by two ways - the way I see it.. The models could be too normalized as an error, and we end up with more low level thickness and thermal packing than is/was presently indicated... The other way is more top down, and suppose there is a bigger correction than normal as this relays off the Pacific, and we end up with more mechanical forcing aloft and destablizing the column that way. If this thing looks like the the 00z guidance, tomorrow though, it's a forgettable probably and the boring idea has to be considered most probable. The GFS ( am aware the 12z ..>) has been vacillating between that 'crush' look -vs- a more pallid light cold rain and paw blats on the windshield - so we'll see if this hold when that data gets on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 gfs handing 30 burgers for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s stronger so at least more dynamics at play for interior. 4ish days out, it's the GFS with a developing coastal, I will assume that it gets the right idea Friday night....We are somewhat close to 32 degree power problems, we shall see. It is January and not March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: NE coastline crushed. Is it an improvement overall for SNE away from the shore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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