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Rjay

Mid to Long Range Threats

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31 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

What is the date of the last Miller A to hit the east coast?? We were so spoiled it seems like 5 years ago.

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We’ve really been spoiled for the last 20 years. 2000-2019 when all added up and averaged out had way more anomalous cold and snowy winters than the previous 20 year cycle (1979-1999), which by and large were duds minus a few. It seems to go in 20 year cycles for the most part; the 1959-1979 winters were way more anomalous for cold and snow than the winters which followed.....

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We’ve really been spoiled for the last 20 years. 2000-2019 when all added up and averaged out had way more anomalous cold and snowy winters than the previous 20 year cycle (1979-1999), which by and large were duds minus a few. It seems to go in 20 year cycles for the most part; the 1959-1979 winters were way more anomalous for cold and snow then the winters which followed.....

I get it. Weather basically runs in cycles. I know you don't want that cycle back but you'd think just based off luck 1 in 10 or 15 storms would ride that track we got so used to.

 

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9 minutes ago, Barman49 said:

What is the date of the last Miller A to hit the east coast?? We were so spoiled it seems like 5 years ago.

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2018?

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7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Getting out there in the uber long range but I like the 5th-8th timeframe. Better airmass with some blocking. 

Yes I would look for an anafrontal event here around the 5th or so...

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14 minutes ago, Greg g said:

That would mess up a lot of super bowl plans for many many people 

I wouldn’t mind that, I’d just watch the game home! It would be perfect!

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1 hour ago, yankeex777 said:

Image

 

This has my attention.  12z Euro

So pretty to look and better get a good look - the 0z could be all rain the way things flip. I am happy that a consistent long range window seems to be showing up.

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19 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

So pretty to look and better get a good look - the 0z could be all rain the way things flip. I am happy that a consistent long range window seems to be showing up.

If there isn’t a good PNA ridge and/or some blocking, this will likely end up over Detroit. I’m more interested in those over any particular storm. 

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10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If there isn’t a good PNA ridge and/or some blocking, this will likely end up over Detroit. I’m more interested in those over any particular storm. 

The EPS was definitely huggy

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Just now, David-LI said:

Do we really need a mid-long range and a Jan discussion thread?

This one is more :weenie: centric. Hour-240 snow maps, wild conjecture, those sorts of things... it keeps the monthly thread open to more serious pattern analysis.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

If there isn’t a good PNA ridge and/or some blocking, this will likely end up over Detroit. I’m more interested in those over any particular storm. 

 

48 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The EPS was definitely huggy

We look to have a good pna next week. The airmass and position of ridge will be key. A costal hugger or a apps runner isn’t a cutter. I doubt we see a cutter in this pattern. 

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18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Interior should be excited with this setup 

Everyone is in the game this far out but of course the interior always has a bigger chance. 

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22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Everyone is in the game this far out but of course the interior always has a bigger chance. 

If it’s a true coastal bomb I’d like to be in the city for this!

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