• Member Statistics

    15,751
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Leesville Wx Hawk
    Newest Member
    Leesville Wx Hawk
    Joined
Rjay

Mid to Long Range Threats

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

still a chance that all the confluence up in eastern Canada will help develop stronger high pressure at the surface and model runs are trending south with LP both at 850 and the surface so this is still a work in progress for the weekend - dynamics - track and the development of HP to the north will determine rain versus snow in the metro area - chance it could start as rain and then transition to snow IMO

sfcmslp.conus.png

What’s cool about this event is it’s still about 6 days away and it’s supposed to be a long lasting event!!

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Going to northeast PA this weekend. Rented a ski house by big bear. So I’m pretty sure whatever happens Saturday there will be snow so I’m excited. 

That could be a really good spot for this one, west of NYC Metro and with some elevation. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

we can only hope...…….

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

Looks like a more powerful, slightly east version of your Monday post snip.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like a more powerful, slightly east version of your Monday post snip.

Gfs is really active

Let's hope we start cashing in.

  • Like 5
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro paints a more interesting picture. It also looks substantially better than what it showed 2 days ago. 

With a lot of luck something good could come out of this. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Euro paints a more interesting picture. It also looks substantially better than what it showed 2 days ago. 

With a lot of luck something good could come out of this. 

what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

30% chance of a 3 plus event.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

I wouldn't say slim. Let's see where we are after this weekend. Pattern looks better as alluded by Coastalwx in the SNE thread.

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, EastonSN+ said:

30% chance of a 3 plus event.

the place to be is on a fishing boat parked in the middle of that dark red area off the Monmouth County NJ coast - 30 miles or so:snowing:

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Snow88 said:

I wouldn't say slim. Let's see where we are after this weekend. Pattern looks better as alluded by Coastalwx in the SNE thread.

was he referring to SNE and or here ? - they can end up with a boat load of snow and we get zip...……...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

what does everybody think the chances are of this verifying ? My prediction is slim to none and Slim just left town...……….

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

EPS Idv have some hits around the 30th to 1st. The better look is around the 5th-6th when we have a colder airmass. 
 

I would say we have a chance but better shot inland.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

was he referring to SNE and or here ? - they can end up with a boat load of snow and we get zip...……...

He thinks the pacific will be better than what it is now.  Of course we also need the cold. Having the MJO possibly go into 1 and 2 will help if it does go into those phases.

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

was he referring to SNE and or here ? - they can end up with a boat load of snow and we get zip...……...

And of course the opposite happens quite often too. Especially for areas N & W of the city. People only remember the ones SNE cashes in on. When their to far east and in the warmer air everyone forgets those, especially in southern coastal CT, RI and MA.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can`t get any closer to p8 than that

Verification for the previous 7 days

 

 

7-Day MJO index verification from the GFS

The GFS gets this into p8 for a day.

So let`s see if that happens and that idea was at least right as the wave is collapsing. 

They agree on the next 7 days that we are in the middle of the Null p 

 

Phase diagram of the MJO index from the operational GFS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Models really like the Jan 31 through Feb 2 time frame for storminess. There's a good +PNA spike ahead of it that helps with the two branches phasing. 

GFS has consistently shown some sort of east coast storm for 5+ consecutive runs now.

A bombing coastal is one way to get snow in a poor airmass. 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models really like the Jan 31 through Feb 2 time frame for storminess.

GFS has consistently shown some sort of east coast storm for 5+ consecutive runs now.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/19/2020 at 2:39 PM, Snow88 said:

A week out and you know this ?

he did

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

540 down in southern VA but still liquid - not going to get it done with this lousy setup - this is probably closer to reality IMO

prateptype.conus.png

 

  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

maybe this one will happen!

Extremely marginal PAC airmass in place and that’s putting it nicely, no arctic high in SE Canada, +EPO, no strong 50/50 low, no -NAO block to stop it from becoming an inland runner/lakes cutter should it amp up....what could possibly go wrong??

  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

the place to be is on a fishing boat parked in the middle of that dark red area off the Monmouth County NJ coast - 30 miles or so:snowing:

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

Of course it will happen because I'll be in Florida for a Bar Mitzvah. As long as this isn't a coastal storm that runs all the way up the few days before so I have good weather for the drive down leaving here Thursday the 30th.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Of course it will happen because I'll be in Florida for a Bar Mitzvah. As long as this isn't a coastal storm that runs all the way up the few days before so I have good weather for the drive down leaving here Thursday the 30th.

You wouldn't be missing much from the looks of that.....

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No but every week it doesn't snow 5" or so I fall that much further behind average from here on out. This would get me pretty close to 20" on the season which is just about right for the beginning of Feb, a little short but not bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...