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Kmlwx

2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread

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How ironic would it be to have a D1 ENH and 10% tor, but we eind up with some generic tstorm line this afternoon in like central VA?

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...Mid-Atlantic and vicinity...

Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in a regime of prefrontal surface troughing and terrain-aided local lift across the western parts of the outlook areas. Activity then should move eastward while organizing in both strength and coverage, with additional development possible across a well-heated coastal plain. Damaging downdraft winds should be common, with some severe (50+ kt) gusts possible. A few tornadoes also may occur. The most-concentrated area of convective/severe potential still appears to be across a corridor from northern VA across the Delmarva Peninsula and southern NJ, in accordance with the 30%-wind/enhanced area. Much of this activity should occur in a field of height falls, and strengthening large-scale/mid-upper lift of mesoscale spatial coverage, ahead of the ejecting Ozarks/Ohio Valley vorticity field. The associated area of vertical motion has been supporting non-severe convection the past several hours across portions of southern/eastern KY, and will move over the surface trough and across a diurnally destabilizing, richly moist, weakly capped boundary layer today. As the favorable low-level air mass spreads northward up the Delaware Valley and NJ areas, a field of 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE (locally/briefly higher) should develop over lower elevations, amidst 40-50-kt effective shear magnitudes. Favorable speed shear will spread over the region as flow aloft intensifies, and any areas of relatively backed surface winds will yield enlarged low-level hodographs with 200-300 J/kg effective SRH. This supports an all-hazards supercell threat, with low LCL, from north-central VA eastward.

 

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2 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Complete overcast here In fauquier county. Do we ever clear out in the mid Atlantic to maximize any severe potential lol

I've got ~80 percent sun here.  

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36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

How ironic would it be to have a D1 ENH and 10% tor, but we eind up with some generic tstorm line this afternoon in like central VA?

In this region replace ironic with typical.  These outlooks bust more often then winter events in this area.  Which is good and bad.  Bad being that (non weather) peeps are so accustomed to warnings that when a legitimate warning (and absolutely necessary action to protect life/property) occurs, no one will take it seriously.  Boy meet wolf. ;)

I wouldn't be surprised if there is less activity today then yesterday.  Does it mean we should let our guard down?  NEVER!

No doubt with soundings someone will score today, just don't expect it to be a widespread outbreak.

EDIT:  10% TOR, especially our area, is nothing to sneeze at! Don't forget to wear a mask! ;)

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patchy clouds with blue skies 73/72

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

How ironic would it be to have a D1 ENH and 10% tor, but we eind up with some generic tstorm line this afternoon in like central VA?

I wouldn’t complain, the storm yesterday disintegrated and went south as well. Hopefully I’m just far enough north to get a little bit.

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Full sun with only some high cirrus in Arlington.  Looks like we checked off one of more common fails for sever here so we are off to a good start.

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Full sun with only some high cirrus in Arlington.  Looks like we checked off one of more common fails for sever here so we are off to a good start.

84.1 here just a bit west of you.  Plenty of sun now, though it will cloud up for a period soon.  Should be transient, though.

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

84.1 here just a bit west of you.  Plenty of sun now, though it will cloud up for a period soon.  Should be transient, though.

Can confirm is gross out.

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Lot of the short term guidance hitting the QLCS stuff vs. Tornado risk now. Wouldn't shock my if the afternoon update drops the 10%TOR but keeps the 30% WIND.

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12k NAM is discrete cell galore. The HRRR has slightly more linear storms and CAPE isn't too bad although I'd prefer higher CAPE

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Mix of sun and clouds.  Blob of clouds on satellite so if that blows off soon then can see sun's out, guns out.

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When in doubt... Always go with the QLCS mode in this area. More often than not you will win. Doesn't mean a rogue cell can't get it done, and also doesn't rule out QLCS tornadoes, gustnadoes or bookend circulation type things. 

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6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Raining and feels like Kauai outside.

DP at my house in Currituck North Carolina is 82. It's awful. Hopefully you guys fare well today and don't get any real heavy storm damage.

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1 minute ago, Mrs.J said:

Completely covered in thick clouds over here now. No sun coming through. 

Same in Gaithersburg

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Different story here in Goldsboro. Near full sun and a cumulus cloud or two is starting to show up. Perfect conditions for destabilization. Winds light and variable

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4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

When in doubt... Always go with the QLCS mode in this area. More often than not you will win. Doesn't mean a rogue cell can't get it done, and also doesn't rule out QLCS tornadoes, gustnadoes or bookend circulation type things. 

             I agree that QLCS tornadoes are the bigger (although still not a huge) threat.     There is enough shear to get rotation today, but the low-level shear still looks pretty marginal to me.    We need the low-level flow to strengthen and back to have a larger threat, and that's not progged on a large scale, so we'll have to look for mesoscale areas that get their low-level winds modified by nearby ongoing convection.

 

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14 minutes ago, high risk said:

             I agree that QLCS tornadoes are the bigger (although still not a huge) threat.     There is enough shear to get rotation today, but the low-level shear still looks pretty marginal to me.    We need the low-level flow to strengthen and back to have a larger threat, and that's not progged on a large scale, so we'll have to look for mesoscale areas that get their low-level winds modified by nearby ongoing convection.

 

QLCS tornadoes worry me more than stand alone supercell tornadoes. QLCS are harder to predict as they can quickly spin up and do a bit of damage before dying out. 

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Due to veered winds the play is right on the boundary, which as of this writing is between DC and BWI. I make no promises on terrain, lol!

Remarkable that the boundary is un-contaminated and no other junk is forecast until the main event. 700 mb Ts near just right. That is rare in the Mid-Atlantic, and quite notable.

Left front/exit of jet max will pass early; however, right rear/entrance will arrive peak heating. Also a 700 mb vort max. It is already clear on water vapor back in Kentucky. LLJ responds at the right time BWI area too.

If I'm a chaser there, @Ian this is a Go!

Discrete sups are progged. SRH will be there on the boundary. Unseasonably high Tds have promoted over-achievement the past few days here in the Tenn Valley. Should continue there. 

IIRC outside BWI is a little better chasing than around DC; but, it's been a long time since I've been to BWI. Good luck!

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46 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

DP at my house in Currituck North Carolina is 82. It's awful. Hopefully you guys fare well today and don't get any real heavy storm damage.

Was down there last week and beginning of this week. Weather was gorgeous!

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