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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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Mid 60's for an extended period of time in mid February - just so amazing - residents of the TN Valley will be sorely surprised when the larger scale pattern eventually flips; if we were to have a winter season like we had in my child hood -1970's-1980's - people would not know what to do not to mention if we had one similar to the 1960's where almost every season in that decade had at least one big storm and several seasons had seasonal totals well over 12" - just amazing! Anyone have any idea when we break out of this multi-year crap pattern?

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9 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Mid 60's for an extended period of time in mid February - just so amazing - residents of the TN Valley will be sorely surprised when the larger scale pattern eventually flips; if we were to have a winter season like we had in my child hood -1970's-1980's - people would not know what to do not to mention if we had one similar to the 1960's where almost every season in that decade had at least one big storm and several seasons had seasonal totals well over 12" - just amazing! Anyone have any idea when we break out of this multi-year crap pattern?

April

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4 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Figured as much, why would this year be any different? The NAO will suddenly go negative in the Spring

Epic west-based -NAO on the way.

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_4.png

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36 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Mid 60's for an extended period of time in mid February - just so amazing - residents of the TN Valley will be sorely surprised when the larger scale pattern eventually flips; if we were to have a winter season like we had in my child hood -1970's-1980's - people would not know what to do not to mention if we had one similar to the 1960's where almost every season in that decade had at least one big storm and several seasons had seasonal totals well over 12" - just amazing! Anyone have any idea when we break out of this multi-year crap pattern?

How bout them Titans!!!

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30 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That should set up some pretty epic severe in the NE and MA.

Yeah more weather we love to track but perpetually fail at lol.

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58 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Epic west-based -NAO on the way.

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_4.png

Yes -NAO April to Late October then back to positive November to February about time some see the overall pattern over the past 10 years with this important indicie. 

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Call me the eternal optimist but I could see how we could at least land a decent event between now and the middle of the month.  There’s cold nearby. Multiple waves. All it would take is for the boundary to be south of us for one wave. I know it’s unlikely given the trend this winter. I think we’re probably at the height of our skepticism so far this year. Which will make it all the better if we actually can land an event.

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Looks like both Euro and Gfs came in warmer for Wednesday evening/ Thursday am . Only the Ukmet held serve and actually is a nice frozen event but it's on it own .
Of course they did. Every time we needed one more good trend it the exact opposite way

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@psuhoffman jb just uncancellled winter. He has zero accountability

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Just now, Ji said:
1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:
Looks like both Euro and Gfs came in warmer for Wednesday evening/ Thursday am . Only the Ukmet held serve and actually is a nice frozen event but it's on it own .

Of course they did. Every time we needed one more good trend it the exact opposite way

This should probably be the expectation given the Pacific is garbage and we have a raging +AO/NAO. That being said, we have the law of averages on our side, it's February, and the advertised pattern, while pretty awful, is not a complete shutout look.

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This should probably be the expectation given the Pacific is garbage and we have a raging +AO/NAO. That being said, we have the law of averages on our side, it's February, and the advertised pattern, while pretty awful, is not a complete shutout look.
Yea I notice eps got pretty cold last night toward mid feb

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Just now, Ji said:
2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
This should probably be the expectation given the Pacific is garbage and we have a raging +AO/NAO. That being said, we have the law of averages on our side, it's February, and the advertised pattern, while pretty awful, is not a complete shutout look.

Yea I notice eps got pretty cold last night toward mid feb

Verbatim it looks like a very workable gradient pattern for the MA. Problem is it's in the LR and these decent looks tend to morph into something less favorable as we move closer to reality when we are stuck in an overall crap pattern.

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Even though last night's runs sucked, I still think that we will score this month, possibly during the next ten to fifteen days. A small adjustment in the track of the next two or three storms is all we need to get on the right side of things. We've done it before. I like this setup.

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33 minutes ago, Ji said:

@psuhoffman jb just uncancellled winter. He has zero accountability

Now we know why things trended wrong then 

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40 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Call me the eternal optimist but I could see how we could at least land a decent event between now and the middle of the month.  There’s cold nearby. Multiple waves. All it would take is for the boundary to be south of us for one wave. I know it’s unlikely given the trend this winter. I think we’re probably at the height of our skepticism so far this year. Which will make it all the better if we actually can land an event.

The window feb 6-14 has been highlighted for over 2 weeks now. It is still a period worth watching but the window isnt as wide open as it once was.

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15 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Looks like a possible legit frozen event midweek unfolding.  Inside 5 days . Trend across almost all guidance has been colder . Eps ,Gefs, Euro,Gfs,UK all colder . 

 

There is a line between eternal optimism and rampant delusion, and I sometimes wonder with you...

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This is me just being a bright side guy, but the one thing I enjoy about dud winters is that I know we will make up for it at some point with a big winter. It's just the way things work around here. 

Some of our worst winters have come directly ahead of or behind some of our most historic winters. To be honest, sometimes I feel like we're still making up for the 2009/2010 LOL

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How about a Nina next winter ........ 

Very unwise to talk about such things a year in advance, but I guess it is one option. 

Not even going to speculate about the implications, unless we get hit with mega clippers and Manitoba Maulers.      

Some mets are going with another Nino next winter, first I heard about a Nina. However, look at the model that is going in that the direction, the CFSv2, ha ha, that model has hardly any skill at all. It can not predict anything with even remote accuracy.  Even at the door step of a new month it crumbles in regards to temps.

More interesting to ponder this than look at the current AO progs.   

 

 

 

 

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Yep, anomalies we are looking at , but still, it is remarkable the extent of above average air masses. 

 

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