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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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25 minutes ago, Ji said:

why would the SS energy lag back 6-12 hours? thats an eternity? 

You realize that that would amount to about 15 minute every 6 hours at this range. These pieces are flying around all over the place. Thinking that the modeling could be off by six hours over 4 days is easily feasible.

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5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB DAY 10 500MB anomalies.....hmmm.....with a little more blocking over Greenland, a little more ridging over the west coast, and a slightly deeper trough in the east we are in business...now everyone can tell me why I am wrong.

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-1076800.png

How much deeper do you want the trough? As it is now it is all the way down into central Mexico. So are you talking like Central America deep? :)

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I personally am not troubled by the warm start to next week. Living here, I could list so many times substantial snows followed very warm days. I know because I've had to explain to the people in my life way too much about how it can be warm today, and still snow tomorrow. 

"Yeah right, it's going to snow tomorrow? Pssh it's 60 degrees. There's no way!" 

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's a MECS setup right there imho.

I would think so too...but at the same time, isn't that ridging off the coast and up into the northeast kind of not ideal?  But we're talking day 10, so I shouldn't parse such details.  The setup is showing up, and has been showing up, for a little while now in the general time frame.

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Not that it means much on a 10 day OP but for the sake of content I am seeing the same issues with this week as next weekend...Where is the cold air?  The vortex over Alaska is still planted there.  The main "shot" of cold air dumps west before east but look North of us.  Above normal anomalies.  Maybe the -NAO will help more in this case but for now it looks more of the same.

 

The EPS from 0z did show some ridging into Alaska that helped bully that vortex out of there, so that's more promising than that op run.

(Doesn't help that the 850 anoms look like they are giving us the middle finger, lol)

ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

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3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I would think so too...but at the same time, isn't that ridging off the coast and up into the northeast kind of not ideal?  But we're talking day 10, so I shouldn't parse such details.  The setup is showing up, and has been showing up, for a little while now in the general time frame.

Bingo. Overall look solid. Analyzing precise details right now not worth the time.

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27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Entire mid atlantic on the wrong side of the boundary. Shift the boundary south and we have an epic 10 day stretch. Frustratingly guidance has trended N with that feature. 

Like I posted a bit ago. Look at this am 6z and you are flush. 

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1 hour ago, Ji said:

Eps shows some of the coldest anomalies I've seen this winter at 360. Of course we are in the battleground 2e9b97930e583849deff26a6d2e93559.jpg

This is actually a very good look for getting progressive waves with cold around...this has worked before..the key is getting the SE ridge suppressed just enough.  That can happen various ways...a well times TPB lobe rotating across to our north... a series of waves where the first knocks down heights, that was how we got so many waves in 2014 and 2015.  It isn't an HECS look but it is a snowy one.  The GEFS and GEPS not so much...so lets bank on the EPS dominance right now.  

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Let it go. Incoming on 18z gfs. 1041 high on top of a stj wave train. 

I like the look on the ens. Don't trust it yet though. We've had a number of LR looks like this last few years and they have an annoying habit of transitioning from confluent W-E oriented h5 patterns to the standard progressive N-S oriented cold fronts as leads shorten.

If we get a week of a compressed W-E gradient pattern it will prob snow. Maybe more than once... It will be annoying AF if the period of interest loses the zonal gradient and turns into cold fronts and highs running away 36 hours after they get here. 

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Let it go. Incoming on 18z gfs. 1041 high on top of a stj wave train. 

Yeah, that sure is a nice look.  Cold, Arctic high pushing east with a wave underneath that is dumping moisture into the cold air.  Not a HECS, but a nice overrunning event as shown.  Same general time frame that some form of this has been showing up.  And that's some cold air over this area, too, while the precip is ongoing.

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Let it go. Incoming on 18z gfs. 1041 high on top of a stj wave train. 

Question...now when you look at ops past like 200 hrs...why is it all the precipitation look like huge swaths of moisture? (like somebody took a butter knife and slathered streaks of graphics on the map,l Is that basically the computer saying "eh, it might be precip between here and here" or is it because resolution is weaker at that range?

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Question...now when you look at ops past like 200 hrs...why is it all the precipitation look like huge swaths of moisture? (like somebody took a butter knife and slathered streaks of graphics on the map,l Is that basically the computer saying "eh, it might be precip between here and here" or is it because resolution is weaker at that range?

Well, if you're looking at the *total* QPF through that time (I'm looking at TT site), then yeah, it would appear like huge swaths of moisture because it's a total amount over all those hours.  Sort of like a Jackson Pollock painting (I use the term "painting" very loosely, hahaha!).  Much larger area then, of course, would be covered by something, especially when you get out in time.  But if you're looking at the 24-h amounts, you should see more "motion" (for lack of a better word) as a system moves through...it will increase, then decrease, over an area for various 24-h increments.

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