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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There was an “or”. Roll with the unpredictability. Maybe my perception is wrong, and if so I apologize, but for several years now you “seem” to really obsess over trying to find predictability to our snowfall chances. Beyond a week or so that’s difficult. We all want that. But it’s just not realistic at long range. 

Truth is we get a few great years time to time but any given year has a higher chance to suck than be good.  Basically I always expect it to suck...I don’t expect snow, and then whenever it comes I appreciate the hell out of it. Less stress that way. 

And you seem keep holding that over my head despite the fact that the last several years I have been very new to this, but have been learning year by year. Look I get it...I'm learning our region's tendencies. I've learned how la Nina's suck. I'm learning how much of a tightrope it can be to get snow around here (and what a classic storm looks like). I am learning how much chaos there is, and how we sometimes need multiple swings to get something.

The difference with my outlook this year was solely based on our every 3-4 history with footers--but I am very aware that trends can break anytime (as I've said) But my goodness, is it so wrong for me to at least HOPE it continues? (while under no delusion that anything HAS to happen).

P.S. Yes, I like to be able to have things to look at as predictors of other things...but I've been growing understand how much "chaos" there can be in weather.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

It was a pretty good run overall. Extremely active just like the ops are showing but man is the spread huge on sensible wx. Keeping it simple is the best approach. Transition into an active pattern with some semblance of a PNA ridge and let the chips fall. I'm starting to think we won't go 15 days without some sort of winter wx. How much and when is above my pay grade. 

Active pattern in first two weeks of February is about as much as we can ask for.  

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Active pattern in first two weeks of February is about as much as we can ask for.  

Some cold to go along with it would be nice...

Maybe it is all we can expect.. that I believe

 

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6 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Active pattern in first two weeks of February is about as much as we can ask for.  

It's nice to see things holding in time as the leads close. Appears to be our best general setup of the winter so far but that really isn't saying much considering how abysmal it's been. lol. My expectations are slowly shifting towards above normal odds of getting some sort of snow event. Temps are going to frustrate us though. No real deep cold being advertised until late in the first week of Feb. I'd hate to have a forum divider storm. General pattern looks like the typical east of the fall line is dicey at best and once you get further NW it looks pretty good. 

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gefs kind of did move towards the op wrt the NAO long range. 

 

jb probably already firing up the delayed but not denied standard line

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The GFS was a pretty big weenie run for out this way. The only thing I am taking away from it is that an active pattern is coming. I dont think we get shut out in our prime climo period if it really end up being that active.

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The chill storm only needs to trend about 400 miles in 5 days to give us a good snowstorm. I've only seen one storm actually do that.......

 

 

In the past week

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Geps gets some NAO ridge day 11-13 but then shifts to a ridge over the top from the epo side. But so long as the guidance agrees to break down the +++NAM state it’s a win imo. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Geps gets some NAO ridge day 11-13 but then shifts to a ridge over the top from the epo side. But so long as the guidance agrees to break down the +++NAM state it’s a win imo. 

So far this winter the JMA  has been doing rather well I believe with features inside of weeks two. Until recently when it forecasted the - EPO to develop and it was a false alarm. 

I feel  the - EPO will not be denied indefinitely.  Would make sense for it to show in Feb. Then, on its coat tale, would be possible - NAO period later in Feb., or more likely in early March based on the seasonal odds. 

 

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After a minor peak upwards the IOD is down to + 0.12 the lowest yet 

20191021,20191027,2.06
20191028,20191103,2.01
20191104,20191110,1.67
20191111,20191117,1.58
20191118,20191124,1.36
20191125,20191201,1.14
20191202,20191208,0.86
20191209,20191215,0.82
20191216,20191222,0.56
20191223,20191229,0.31
20191230,20200105,0.17
20200106,20200112,0.34
20200113,20200119,0.12

 

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Too much northern stream. We need the stj wave to be the dominant player. Right now the NS is in the way wrt the threats next weekend.  Lots of time for that to change. 

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3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

improvements on the Euro....

Yes...it’s very close to a big snow.  It trended this way from 0z...

more STJ and less NS here and this is a big hit  

C62B3D25-0A83-4927-B960-9A24E2901B9C.thumb.jpeg.4ddcddf913473a47b31a5b870d4759de.jpeg

 

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1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Textbook definition of a forum divider.  

 

A42F57AB-9E3C-47BD-883A-1D4049D7A466.png

Shocking. NE MD pummeled. :lol:

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2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Shocking. NE MD pummeled. :lol:

i might stay for this storm...and then as it winds down...take a flight to New England and call it a winter

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Since it is hard to figure out where to find it on pivotal I included a wider view:

 

image.thumb.png.558a5be5e9ec96a65eca4b28dc45356b.png

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

This is the only map we care about...

21C16CDF-020C-421F-8580-5A3FAFA1DC0F.thumb.png.92392d7d93d403e895d0866e485b079f.png

dude i dont care of boston gets 41...id take this

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And you seem keep holding that over my head despite the fact that the last several years I have been very new to this, but have been learning year by year. Look I get it...I'm learning our region's tendencies. I've learned how la Nina's suck. I'm learning how much of a tightrope it can be to get snow around here (and what a classic storm looks like). I am learning how much chaos there is, and how we sometimes need multiple swings to get something.

The difference with my outlook this year was solely based on our every 3-4 history with footers--but I am very aware that trends can break anytime (as I've said) But my goodness, is it so wrong for me to at least HOPE it continues? (while under no delusion that anything HAS to happen).

P.S. Yes, I like to be able to have things to look at as predictors of other things...but I've been growing understand how much "chaos" there can be in weather.

Stick around for a few more years/decades and you come to understand that while statistics have helped to make great strides in this sport, coming at it from an A +B=C mindset will drive you off the ledge.  Look at the last 2 years for example.  Stats can surely help, but a changing environ/base state are not able to be accurately factored in, and with so so many variables with any given event,  IMO it is really a blended approach of statistics/physics/models/and a keen understanding of how it all comes together.  While statistics are a big help, they also can lead to false hope/despair.  Think about it.  

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

dude i dont care of boston gets 41...id take this

Yea...it’s one thing when we get totally shafted but as long as I get a warning level event obsessing over “who got more” seems silly. Just ruins what is a rare opportunity to be happy as a snow weenie. 

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13 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Textbook definition of a forum divider.  

 

A42F57AB-9E3C-47BD-883A-1D4049D7A466.png

What happens after this panel?  One before it (shown in another post above) had a sleet line through the DC area.  Does the cold air wrap back in, or does that rain line just push farther northwest?  I know, not that it should matter dissecting minutia for a day 8-10 deterministic model...but curious all the same!

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