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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Shocking. NE MD pummeled. :lol:

i might stay for this storm...and then as it winds down...take a flight to New England and call it a winter

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Since it is hard to figure out where to find it on pivotal I included a wider view:

 

image.thumb.png.558a5be5e9ec96a65eca4b28dc45356b.png

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

This is the only map we care about...

21C16CDF-020C-421F-8580-5A3FAFA1DC0F.thumb.png.92392d7d93d403e895d0866e485b079f.png

dude i dont care of boston gets 41...id take this

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And you seem keep holding that over my head despite the fact that the last several years I have been very new to this, but have been learning year by year. Look I get it...I'm learning our region's tendencies. I've learned how la Nina's suck. I'm learning how much of a tightrope it can be to get snow around here (and what a classic storm looks like). I am learning how much chaos there is, and how we sometimes need multiple swings to get something.

The difference with my outlook this year was solely based on our every 3-4 history with footers--but I am very aware that trends can break anytime (as I've said) But my goodness, is it so wrong for me to at least HOPE it continues? (while under no delusion that anything HAS to happen).

P.S. Yes, I like to be able to have things to look at as predictors of other things...but I've been growing understand how much "chaos" there can be in weather.

Stick around for a few more years/decades and you come to understand that while statistics have helped to make great strides in this sport, coming at it from an A +B=C mindset will drive you off the ledge.  Look at the last 2 years for example.  Stats can surely help, but a changing environ/base state are not able to be accurately factored in, and with so so many variables with any given event,  IMO it is really a blended approach of statistics/physics/models/and a keen understanding of how it all comes together.  While statistics are a big help, they also can lead to false hope/despair.  Think about it.  

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

dude i dont care of boston gets 41...id take this

Yea...it’s one thing when we get totally shafted but as long as I get a warning level event obsessing over “who got more” seems silly. Just ruins what is a rare opportunity to be happy as a snow weenie. 

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13 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Textbook definition of a forum divider.  

 

A42F57AB-9E3C-47BD-883A-1D4049D7A466.png

What happens after this panel?  One before it (shown in another post above) had a sleet line through the DC area.  Does the cold air wrap back in, or does that rain line just push farther northwest?  I know, not that it should matter dissecting minutia for a day 8-10 deterministic model...but curious all the same!

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea...it’s one thing when we get totally shafted but as long as I get a warning level event obsessing over “who got more” seems silly. Just ruins what is a rare opportunity to be happy as a snow weenie. 

That mindset plagues the human race. lol. At every single step of your life there are people more successful than you, richer than you, luckier that you, etc. Appreciate what you have at all times because in the same vein there are always people less successful, less wealthy, unluckier, etc. 

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@Ji look at the h5 track. Base of the upper level trough goes across the TN/KY border through southern VA then closes off as it passes just under us. That’s the “Goldilocks” upper level look I was talking about yesterday and this morning.  This was close to the perfect run. Only thing that could have maxed it out more would be a little weaker NS system initially and stronger STJ wave to wrap up the coastal 6 hours sooner...then you get that 12-24” area down here...but that’s getting really picky and if you wrap the low up too early you get the rain solution again so it’s a thin margin for error with barely any cold in place. 

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It is a great look for sure. Temps are a bit iffy at the start verbatim. But it is way too early to be even thinking about that. I would also prefer the phase to happen a bit further south. At least for my area. But exciting run overall

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33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro is showing such a basic and easy setup that I can't imagine anything going wrong 

If the wires are routed properly it will snow, what could go wrong?

 

 

wires.png

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12z EPS is better than 0z but not really close to supporting the op. EPS supports a forum divider or all rain more than a flush hit along the piedmont. Still an improvement run over run and there is a cluster of I95 hits in the mix. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z EPS is better than 0z but not really close to supporting the op. EPS supports a forum divider or all rain more than a flush hit along the piedmont. Still an improvement run over run and there is a cluster of I95 hits in the mix. 

It was better than I expected at that range. 

Obvious improvement from 0z.  This isn’t the best way to illustrate it but it’s the easiest and I’m busy  

72 hour mean snowfall

0z

159F7510-B177-44F7-8C52-2D71CACB58F6.thumb.png.06c0810699052d922dd1dc8d32352d9c.png

12z

4554B192-BD1C-4948-AAD5-65C4C27A3E2C.thumb.png.d3571c3bff56b32e1794f0ee700e9519.png

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z EPS is better than 0z but not really close to supporting the op. EPS supports a forum divider or all rain more than a flush hit along the piedmont. Still an improvement run over run and there is a cluster of I95 hits in the mix. 

Ironically the GEFS moved away from this system. Still there but past runs were better. Euro op might be out to lunch, just a hunch, we've seen this a bunch....the gutpunch.

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@psuhoffman Under the hood there are 10 out of 50 that hit the piedmont/I95 corridor. Some big hits and some lame ones. I expected more than 10 given that it's d8-10 now and not way out there. I wasn't expecting the majority to suddenly jump on the big hit parade but I was also expecting a bit more support than what it shows. An improvement is an improvement though so trend is friend and stuff. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

@psuhoffman Under the hood there are 10 out of 50 that hit the piedmont/I95 corridor. Some big hits and some lame ones. I expected more than 10 given that it's d8-10 now and not way out there. I wasn't expecting the majority to suddenly jump on the big hit parade but I was also expecting a bit more support than what it shows. An improvement is an improvement though so trend is friend and stuff. 

I guess I had lower expectations. There are flaws. Just because this one op run spit out the damn perfect set of permutations we need to make this work doesn’t make that suddenly likely imo. It just means it’s within the envelope of possible. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I guess I had lower expectations. There are flaws. Just because this one op run spit out the damn perfect set of permutations we need to make this work doesn’t make that suddenly likely imo. It just means it’s within the envelope of possible. 

Given the general setup I would think there are mulitple ways for it to work out. Op was a unicorn. I think we can all agree there. Not seeing a number of 1-3/2-4 deals implies that this may be an all or none type of scenario. Crapload of time before it all starts really mattering. Would feel better if ens consolidate towards a more unified solution by the end of the weekend. 

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12 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

what are folks using to view the Euro ensemble these days.   TT is very limited.

I think mostly weatherbell and pivotal weather

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@Bob Chill I did see material improvement wrt the h5 setup though. 

Leading into it look at the 50/50 signal.  That 50/50 Hudson Bay ridge combo puts us in the game at least  

7B8158CE-3B8C-44DF-ABDD-4F6FEA1C1042.thumb.png.793fb3edfb8a22f5e6a59725a71a9025.png

There is enough to like here...

nice western ridge, that h5 track is classic.  The 50/50 departs a bit faster then ideal and I’d prefer the ridge centered by Hudson not east but it’s close enough to the +AO big storm composite look actually  

D56E8CF9-D874-4BEE-8AA6-4C6EB3B5174C.thumb.png.6c485ee1bfadd6b106a414b5a7818e67.png

Its a shame the airmass is atrocious. That’s why the results are lackluster. Every variable has to be spot on perfect to work. If we had a colder antecedent airmass I bet the ensembles would be lit up like a Christmas tree right now. 

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Given the general setup I would think there are mulitple ways for it to work out. Op was a unicorn. I think we can all agree there. Not seeing a number of 1-3/2-4 deals implies that this may be an all or none type of scenario. Crapload of time before it all starts really mattering. Would feel better if ens consolidate towards a more unified solution by the end of the weekend. 

Right now at least, guidance is indicating there isn’t enough cold air for a marginal setup to work. Light precip will be rain. A questionable track will be rain. A perfect track but not amplified enough will be rain. The only snow scenario is a perfect track amplified storm that CCBs the living hell out of us such that dynamic cooling overcomes the thermal deficiencies. That’s why you’re seeing the mediocre ensemble results imo. 

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Well add the eps to the “flip up top” camp. Again I don’t care what the day 15 details are. Seeing all guidance weakening the death grip the PV has up top is good news. 

46BAFCE7-4101-4E7B-AFA9-DAC6CC184AF9.thumb.png.d637341bc0889dbaaf0897cf9d71b661.png

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