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WinterWxLuvr

Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

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13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS sends it on a Gulf of Mexico tour and out to Bermuda...again I think

The big ones lock in early. That’s what they say in Bermuda anyway 

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Just need to shift the track East by like 75 miles.  Runs it west of Va beach this run.

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do we want this storm to come in earlier vs later in the weekend???   seems like earlier is more favorable for all in our region

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Yeah, a bit inland.  But I don't think it's so much a matter of needing it farther east so much as it is the antecedent air isn't the greatest.  Though that would help I guess.  Euro was offshore, but also a precip bomb.

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Yup.  The only thing missing is the cold air on that run.  Like missing flour in a cake.  Even 75 miles would be just barely cold enough for some.  Apps would get pasted.  Op run so this is folly.  Storm signal.  

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Yup.  The only thing missing is the cold air on that run.  Like missing flour in a cake.  Even 75 miles would be just barely cold enough for some.  Apps would get pasted.  Op run so this is folly.  Storm signal.  

I’ll be in Snowshoe that weekend.  Could be interesting.  Or I could end up missing out on our best event of the winter.  

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5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Just need to shift the track East by like 75 miles.  Runs it west of Va beach this run.

This.   Just a nice 75 mile shift east and this board would be healed if it turned out that way.  ETA:  I missed a panel.  Looked like we need more like 150 miles easter

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@bobchill you said the eps showed 10 of 50 hits. How many would of been big hits if cold air was not an issue

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This.   Just a nice 75 mile shift east and this board would be healed if it turned out that way.
Can we do an emergency 6pm radio show
?
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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This.   Just a nice 75 mile shift east and this board would be healed if it turned out that way.  ETA:  I missed a panel.  Looked like we need more like 150 miles easter

Math was never my strong suit...or something like that.

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I don’t see in that set up how we get this thing East.  West maybe.  Long time to watch. 

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I don’t see in that set up how we get this thing East.  West maybe.  Long time to watch. 

Why do you say that? Dude...it's just Day 8, lol If this comes down to an exact track, ain't now way this is gonna be figured out right now (remember last run when it cut the storm? Lol) But yes, as psu said, we could very well need a perfect track...and if that be the case, keep expecting model swings till err, is don't know...next Thursday? :lol: I'm not even sure the "setup" is in stone yet!

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its a nice hit for the favored areas. Temps are better than the Euro as well. Thats as far west as I want to see it track though. Even out here.

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3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB GFS 18z. EURO and GFS models are very close this far out.  You have to smell the rain to get the best snows.

B823B5D2-09BB-4129-AE86-01F8ACED70BC.png

Do you mind showing this same map through 228 hrs? I'd like to see the additional snow from upslope event in west Virginia.  Thanks 

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20 minutes ago, Ji said:

Can we do an emergency 6pm radio show
?

This made me spit my fry out of my mouth. Never been so happy to see a partial agreement between euro and GFS. I know you commented earlier about not caring if BOS gets smoked. I agree if I can muster 6-8" I'd never complain again. 

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23 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yup.  The only thing missing is the cold air on that run.  Like missing flour in a cake.  Even 75 miles would be just barely cold enough for some.  Apps would get pasted.  Op run so this is folly.  Storm signal.  

i actually somewhat agree...but i'm trying not to lol.  my concern is the amount of room it would have to amplify.  i'd like to see a high pressure build in over top of the system to provide a better cold air source.  as is, it's attacking a weakening high, so we might just want better phasing with the ns.  nice to see a storm, though.

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9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

its a nice hit for the favored areas. Temps are better than the Euro as well. Thats as far west as I want to see it track though. Even out here.

For our i 81 area 50 to 75 miles east  would be perfect but  I aint complaining.   Love that both the euro and GFS have qpf bombs

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

@bobchill you said the eps showed 10 of 50 hits. How many would of been big hits if cold air was not an issue

The 10 count was within areas east of the mountains so a general statement because location matters as usual. 

Here's the 24hr snow meteo for Gburg

tM0ksVf.png

 

Here's the qpf meteo. Lot's of big rainers in the bunch it seems. About 1/3rd have over 1" qpf. 

 

QJjRNcL.png

 

Considering what we're seeing on the ops now it's easy to envision the razor thin margin of error. This can all easily improve with better track/colder air etc but anyone who gets married to this "snowstorm" from long leads is setting themselves of for a disaster.

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27 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said:

Do you mind showing this same map through 228 hrs? I'd like to see the additional snow from upslope event in west Virginia.  Thanks 

 

254990D1-0467-42D0-8454-E9FE2C73B7CE.png

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