• Member Statistics

    15,935
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Danny8
    Newest Member
    Danny8
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
stormtracker

January 18th Event

Recommended Posts

NE MD gets absolutely pummeled this run. 6-8'' with 10:1 ratios, but it's likely to be higher initially because of the super cold airmass to the north.

  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, JakkelWx said:

NE MD gets absolutely pummeled this run. 6-8'' with 10:1 ratios, but it's likely to be higher initially because of the super cold airmass to the north.

Warm front snow struggles to get 10:1 no matter what. High ratio stuff is with ULLs or CCBs. 8:1 is usually a good ratio to set expectations with warm fronts. The beginning can be high ratio but everything starts riming and clumping before pellets. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have to like the 1040 HP that's been consistently  modeled. Won't be easy to scour out even without classic blocking. Heck a 1030 HP can get it done in January.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Bob Chill said:

Warm front snow struggles to get 10:1 no matter what. High ratio stuff is with ULLs or CCBs. 8:1 is usually a good ratio to set expectations with warm fronts. The beginning can be high ratio but everything starts riming and clumping before pellets. 

People also seem to have thought process that surface temps are the only thing that determines ratios. It is entirely possible (which I know you know) to have poor ratio snow and have the surface be 18 degrees. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, HighStakes said:

Have to like the 1040 HP that's been consistently  modeled. Won't be easy to scour out even without classic blocking. Heck a 1030 HP can get it done in January.

You said it . Its January...prime climo wins in this situation even with a modest high 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Warm front snow struggles to get 10:1 no matter what. High ratio stuff is with ULLs or CCBs. 8:1 is usually a good ratio to set expectations with warm fronts. The beginning can be high ratio but everything starts riming and clumping before pellets. 
Are we getting that late feb west track snowstorm we had a few years ago. That was nuts lol
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Warm front snow struggles to get 10:1 no matter what. High ratio stuff is with ULLs or CCBs. 8:1 is usually a good ratio to set expectations with warm fronts. The beginning can be high ratio but everything starts riming and clumping before pellets. 

Are we getting that late feb west track snowstorm we had a few years ago. That was nuts lol

I need to be reminded of which storm that was. I have vague memories of it

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Warm front snow struggles to get 10:1 no matter what. High ratio stuff is with ULLs or CCBs. 8:1 is usually a good ratio to set expectations with warm fronts. The beginning can be high ratio but everything starts riming and clumping before pellets. 

Are we getting that late feb west track snowstorm we had a few years ago. That was nuts lol

That was one for the books. May never happen again. Most of the snow fell in the teens and it never got above freezing. I can't think of a single other west track storm that had temps like that. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Ji said:
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
Warm front snow struggles to get 10:1 no matter what. High ratio stuff is with ULLs or CCBs. 8:1 is usually a good ratio to set expectations with warm fronts. The beginning can be high ratio but everything starts riming and clumping before pellets. 

Are we getting that late feb west track snowstorm we had a few years ago. That was nuts lol

JB pulled out the 1982 storm which might actually be a good analog other than that was a colder airmass although this one this weekend is pretty decent airmass too. Capital Weather Gang did an article on that storm a while back.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That was one for the books. May never happen again. Most of the snow fell in the teens and it never got above freezing. I can't think of a single other west track storm that had temps like that. 

I think January 94' but I'll have to look 

 

Edit:

Looks like January 17th and 28th storms both tracked west of us . I remember the temps were teens to low 20s most of the day for each but they were mixed events for sure . Not all snow 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, it is a bit lighter, but for now, I’m more concerned with the cad. 

See that’s where I’m looking at the other ... the cad doesn’t worry me. It’s the depth of that trough in the center of the country. It was deeper this time and the low went north a bit, hence the lighter early precip. Been around long enough to know to not worry about op runs at 5 days, but just being honest the 18z wasn’t the look I had hoped to get.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That was one for the books. May never happen again. Most of the snow fell in the teens and it never got above freezing. I can't think of a single other west track storm that had temps like that. 

Was that the one?  I remember a storm around Feb 20-21, 2015, where the CAD held on longer than expected and we got around 8” before flip to snizzle.  

I think there was a separate storm where snow fell in the teens but we were disappointed because rates were poor (bad snow growth?). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That was one for the books. May never happen again. Most of the snow fell in the teens and it never got above freezing. I can't think of a single other west track storm that had temps like that. 
Snow was as heavy at times as the jan 16 blizzard!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It looks like the timing on the storm has changed a lot over the last two days now comes in Saturday late instead of Friday night .  is this good or bad I don't know 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

It looks like the timing on the storm has changed a lot over the last two days now comes in Saturday late instead of Friday night .  is this good or bad I don't know 

If we take the GFS for what it is, it’s a Saturday morning/midday event 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said:

It looks like the timing on the storm has changed a lot over the last two days now comes in Saturday late instead of Friday night .  is this good or bad I don't know 

Seems like a good thing if the cold high is slowing it down and pushing it south.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

People also seem to have thought process that surface temps are the only thing that determines ratios. It is entirely possible (which I know you know) to have poor ratio snow and have the surface be 18 degrees. 

Exaclty. 800mb temps increase throughout the precip during WAA events. As those temps rise snowgrowth changes for the worse. Best dendrites/ratios happen at the beginning and deteriorate. 

Unlike our last warmfront... surface won't be torched and nothing will be lost to rain/melt. Love when snow sticks from the first flake. Less than half of our events are like that 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Exaclty. 800mb temps increase throughout the precip during WAA events. As those temps rise snowgrowth changes for the worse. Best dendrites/ratios happen at the beginning and deteriorate. 

Unlike our last warmfront... surface won't be torched and nothing will be lost to rain/melt. Love when snow sticks from the first flake. Less than half of our events are like that 

Seems like the rare times we do have 18 degree snow, the flake size sucks and it's basically pixie dust, so I agree people have the wrong impression about this. We almost always overestimate ratios here. They seem to usually end up 10:1 or below on average. Only things more overhyped are ice storms and inches-per-hour expectations.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That is a pretty nice cold blast after the storm passes as well. Single digits west of town. It would turn whatever falls into concrete. 

Was thinking the same. Wintry weekend for sure into early next week! 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

That is a pretty nice cold blast after the storm passes as well. Single digits west of town. It would turn whatever falls into concrete. 

If this weekend works out we have a decent shot at an extended period of snow on  the ground. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Seems like the rare times we do have 18 degree snow, the flake size sucks and it's basically pixie dust, so I agree people have the wrong impression about this. We almost always overestimate ratios here. They seem to usually end up 10:1 or below on average. Only things more overhyped are ice storms and inches-per-hour expectations.

Truth. We usually have a long period of "sand" during our legit cold events that don't have strong upper level dynamics. Pretty much my least favorite kind of snow. 

The only time we get really nice 12-15:1 snow is with a classic track miller A and/or solid upper levels. I remember the Feb 14 storm. "Part 1" was full of crappy snow growth and low ratio snow before the sleet show. Later in the day when the ULL passed there was colorado rockies conditions and the surface temps weren't even that cold. Close to freezing iirc. 

Clippers usually have high ratio snowfall but they are also often moisture starved so not very memorable. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Truth. We usually have a long period of "sand" during our legit cold events that don't have strong upper level dynamics. Pretty much my least favorite kind of snow. 

The only time we get really nice 12-15:1 snow is with a classic track miller A and/or solid upper levels. I remember the Feb 14 storm. "Part 1" was full of crappy snow growth and low ratio snow before the sleet show. Later in the day when the ULL passed there was colorado rockies conditions and the surface temps weren't even that cold. Close to freezing iirc. 

Clippers usually have high ratio snowfall but they are also often moisture starved so not very memorable. 

I remember getting over 4 inches of fluff from a system with only .18" qpf . 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

During the last hour or two of last weeks snow there was some really good high ratio stuff. Really nice dendrites falling up here at 30 degrees. Snow piled up quick. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even though 18z gefs mean snowfall is a little less than 12z, it's actually a better run. Basically unanimous support for 2-6" of snow. 12z had a cluster of whiffs. 18z has none. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.