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wdrag

Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020

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Just now, psv88 said:

@Rjay Farmingdale reporting heavy snow 

Back to light snow here but it came down heavy for about 15 minutes 

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53 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Quibble accepted...  Thanks. All i think about is IMPACT... So i definitely define paved vs grass-trees-boards when I can/have time.  In this case... shovel the walk or plow the road, it reaccumulates on untreated at these very cold air temp. Should that air temp during the day get close to 30...paved roads (darker surfaces) melt barring as you say the snowfall rates during the day..  After dark... then we lose that energy and easier to accumulate.  In any case up here at 18F... roads all covered,   but treated roads mixed wet-slight slush. 0.5" set 1P.

 

Thanks.  And I agree on impact being most important.  Don't know if you've seen my sometimes exhaustive (lol) posts on this, but I strongly believe sleet is almost as impactful as snow and that people greatly underestimate the impact of sleet because  3:1 ratio sleet is only about 1/3 the depth of 10:1 snow.  Problem with that thinking is that for 1" of sleet and 3.3" of snow, for example the frozen mass is the same and frozen mass is all that really matters for driving and snow/sleet removal; and, in fact, sleet will melt more slowly than snow, given its much lower surface area per unit volume vs. flakes, since melting occurs at the surface and less SA means slower melting.  The one exception to impact is that sleet obviously has nearly no impact on visibility, which does matter.  

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3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

curious to see how we do this evening. should be pretty close to the rain/heavy snow line for a bit.

Hopefully were in the heavy snow side. 0.8” here

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26 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Back to light snow here but it came down heavy for about 15 minutes 

Same here in SW Suffolk. Picked up a quick 0.7” of snow.

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2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

radar looks good SW of the city.  Looks to pick up again in 60-90 mins

Less than that. Give it or take 25 minutes that precip will be over the city. It’s going to come down. Central Park looks like 3 inches is a lock

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Back home in lower Westchester approaching 1 in still snowing never dry slotted precipitation filling in again don't think precip will ever shut off here

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Just now, psv88 said:

Temp is slowly ticking up. By the time round 2 arrives we may be mixing 

No dude, it’s cold every layer, you’re going to get more drop in temps once the precip comes in. It’s the precip over western Pennsylvania that will raise your temps.

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13 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks.  And I agree on impact being most important.  Don't know if you've seen my sometimes exhaustive (lol) posts on this, but I strongly believe sleet is almost as impactful as snow and that people greatly underestimate the impact of sleet because  3:1 ratio sleet is only about 1/3 the depth of 10:1 snow.  Problem with that thinking is that for 1" of sleet and 3.3" of snow, for example the frozen mass is the same and frozen mass is all that really matters for driving and snow/sleet removal; and, in fact, sleet will melt more slowly than snow, given its much lower surface area per unit volume vs. flakes, since melting occurs at the surface and less SA means slower melting.  The one exception to impact is that sleet obviously has nearly no impact on visibility, which does matter.  

Agreed w your science.  Also more painful when wind driven and moderate.  Save that info for future posts...   What now must occur is better science translating the sleet into proper accumulative amounts in these algorithms that bias very high in mixed precip.   Gotta walk the dog before the ice pellets or heavier snow arrives. 

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We are about to changeover to sleet or freezing rain in the NW Philly burbs where I am now in Phoenixville.  That line is rapidly advancing east.  It's still about 25 degrees outside.  

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11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Temp is slowly ticking up. By the time round 2 arrives we may be mixing 

Looks like the mix line currently just to the west of Philly.

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