wdrag

Wintry mix potential weekend of Jan 18-19, 2020

Recommended Posts

The NAM kind of has one main wave while the GFS seems to show two distinct bands one to the south up to about the city and one well north of the city.

 

The RGEM has heavier precip over the city and LHV but its warm for the city

 

So theres still some minor discrepancies to sort out when trying to predict totals

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think 2 - 5 for the entire metro area - covering underperforming and overperforming - high bust potential in certain areas to be determined as of tonight here is GFS looks weird with the totals

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

13:1 ratio is pretty decent on the coast.

NWS .HAS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NYC ..GOING WITH 2 TO 4.  I THINK IF THAT HAPPENS  BIG WIN FOR THIS WINTER THUS FAR..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not to be a pessimist (or maybe a realist), but based on the last several years living in Manhattan during storms hovering at or just above freezing, have my doubts on how much will accumulate over here.  Reeeeally hope I'm wrong and that the cold we are experiencing today/overnight provides enough of a countermeasure!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good Friday morning everyone, Jan 17.  I wish my confidence was greater for Saturday.  Concerned about qpf modeling... and as often mentioned by group members, southwest flow event, (especially 850MB)...just hard to get my hopes up.  I expect 2 inch minimum just north and west of NYC. The city I think should still be snowing at 7PM but surface temps govern accums.  FGEN embedded in the ridge well ahead of the short wave should develop a band or 2 of moderate snow for an hour or 2 Saturday afternoon-early evening. 

Modeling later today and tomorrow may help...  anyway, with less than 3" so far in Central Park...  if an inch falls....that would be noteworthy.

I've added some ensemble graphics.  The first two are courtesy NWS ensembling system for snowfall.  The last is the ECMWF EPS chance for 3+ inches courtesy of Weather.US  posted 718AM, data gathered around 5AM. 

Screen Shot 2020-01-17 at 5.12.48 AM.png

Screen_Shot_2020-01-17_at_5_26.37_AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-01-17 at 5.38.25 AM.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, NittanyWx said:

Very marginal situation and I think best case scenario here goes something like getting some snow at 33-34 in the city for a few hours.  Gonna be tough to stay colder than that with that SW wind past say 21-22z.  Think if you're a bit further north in CT, Hudson Valley, NW jersey...better chance to get yourself a couple of inches before it flips over.

 

Implied, but the mid-levels and even most of the lower levels are OK.  The issue is sfc to like 950mb with high gone.

 

The main issue the Euro is presenting isn't really the temp profile early on.  It's more the precip being slower to arrive and losing out on getting some needed precip with the colder air still in place.  Think early ballpark of like 1-3 north of the city, coating to maybe 2" at the absolute highest in the city (bias for lesser end of range) and less than that south.  

 

I think I'll nudge areas just north of the city to 2-4", keep coating to 2" for the city, Island and south.  You head further up and gain some elevation in and northern CT you'll find those 3-6"  type of amounts.  Thicknesses will be rising throughout the event and you'll still have low level warmth to deal with after 21-22z or so. 

 

I still have a tough time in the city seeing anything more than 2" in a WAA type of scenario like we have here.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

long island is really on the line here...… :grinch:

Still think it’ll be forgettable/lousy in general on the island other than maybe north of the Northern State or Rt 25 where it could be a couple degrees colder for most of it than the south shore. Maybe an inch on the south shore and 2” on the north shore isn’t exactly nail biting. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

long island is really on the line here...… :grinch:

It can go either way

The faster the precip comes in the better 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still think it’ll be forgettable/lousy in general on the island other than maybe north of the Northern State or Rt 25 where it could be a couple degrees colder for most of it than the south shore. Maybe an inch on the south shore and 2” on the north shore isn’t exactly nail biting. 

Agree with this

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This will likely be our last shot at snow for awhile so enjoy it. I think 1-3" remains a good call with higher amounts N&W of the city. 

It'll feel like winter for a change.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Still think it’ll be forgettable/lousy in general on the island other than maybe north of the Northern State or Rt 25 where it could be a couple degrees colder for most of it than the south shore. Maybe an inch on the south shore and 2” on the north shore isn’t exactly nail biting. 

Yep.   The writing has been on the wall for days around here.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’ll go 1-2 for the metro and 2-4 north and west. Long Island c-1. I think sw ct will do the best as in top end of the 2-4.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I’ll go 1-2 for the metro and 2-4 north and west. Long Island c-1. I think sw ct will do the best as in top end of the 2-4.

I would think the HV does better than SW CT in this setup. I guess will find out tomorrow.

So much anticipation for a six hour event that will be minimal for many. This is what patterns like this do.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

I’ll go 1-2 for the metro and 2-4 north and west. Long Island c-1. I think sw ct will do the best as in top end of the 2-4.

Rgem looks good for a few inches even In the city. We need a thump and we will be good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Rgem looks good for a few inches even In the city. We need a thump and we will be good.

I think the city and immediate suburbs west of the river are good for 2 inches. I can see ewr getting 3-4 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I think the city and immediate suburbs west of the river are good for 2 inches. I can see ewr getting 3-4 

Ewr will def get that 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

im just hoping to get an inch or 2 and then  just drizzle so its not washed away...what a winter

been wanting to get my drone up in the air to  get snow shots...since I had the damn thing we haven't gotten any real snow...it was great in Iceland though

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure how people are seeing 2-4 when QPF doesn't even get above .3 in some spots and temps are marginal. 

This is 1-3 at best, my guess is coating-2. 

(for the immediate metro)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.