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Snowstorms

January 17-18 Winter Storm

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3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Joe always waits until last minute to go big

That’s the smart way of doing things.  With how many events the models temper within 48 hours it’s the cool, calm collected, non boy cry wolf way to go B)

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24 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

If you're not making a final call 100 hrs out, what's the point

Yea, I've forgotten to do long ranges calls on here for a while. 

4.0" ORD

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4 hours ago, buckeye said:

if you pull off 6" from a storm tracking to your nw in this garbage pattern....

....that'll confirm my suspicion all along that  you've been in possession of a sex tape of old man winter 

Lol maybe...

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS7pFEV5CYKNVWB_ysah0D

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9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Rgem still big dog lite 

I-80 south somehow outsnows the metro area on the GFS.  Oh yeah, keeps wisconsinwx's MKE call in play too.

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I think DTX might be wrong on the snow ratios, their AFD made mention of 8:1 ratios, I just don't see it being that low especially with temps starting out in the 20s and very good ascent.

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7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I think DTX might be wrong on the snow ratios, their AFD made mention of 8:1 ratios, I just don't see it being that low especially with temps starting out in the 20s and very good ascent.

Not the mention that the ground will be frozen with much of the snow falling at night or early morning hours as well.  The forecaster did at least mention that areas of strong vertical motion will have better ratio's of course plus some minor terrain effects along the glacial ridge.  10 to 1 is probably the way to go with this one.  Thinking 5 to 8 inches locally followed by a few hours of drizzle followed by up to 1" of lake effect as the strong winds should have no problem blowing streamers a long way along I-94 with decent moisture also in place to boot.

 

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49 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I-80 south somehow outsnows the metro area on the GFS.  Oh yeah, keeps wisconsinwx's MKE call in play too.

I have him freaked out about dry air for mke. pixie storm

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RGEM can sometimes seem almost too aggressive with WAA during precip events, so the fact that it's keeping things as snow longer is a good sign.  By the time the precip begins to mix up most of the heavier QPF will have fallen.  Gonna ride my 3-5" call, which is pretty in line with DVN.  

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WWA advisory issued for .01-.02” ice, along with a flood warning for an additional 1-1.5” of rainfall. I guess a flash freeze on Saturday will be a highlight of this winter? 

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#1 CIPS analog is 12/1/2007.  Was in LAF back then but remember that storm.  One difference is that the warm nose aloft back then was stronger/farther north, so the ice won't get as far north this time. 

120200.thumb.png.ea6e866f60ebccda89c89a0161f8caf0.png

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

#1 CIPS analog is 12/1/2007.  Was in LAF back then but remember that storm.  One difference is that the warm nose aloft back then was stronger/farther north, so the ice won't get as far north this time. 

120200.thumb.png.ea6e866f60ebccda89c89a0161f8caf0.png

Everyone of those analogs have the snow nowhere near where the models do this go around. Looks like a failure in analogs.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Everyone of those analogs have the snow nowhere near where the models do this go around. Looks like a failure in analogs.

I do think the orientation of the snow totals may not be far off 12/1/07, this is similar in being a snow to dry slot/mix for Milwaukee and Chicago with no issues for precip type in Minneapolis.  One difference is this will likely stay snow a bit farther south than that one, as well as the time of day (and of course the former being an early winter storm).

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Recap of this storm for Champaign 

1) Ice accretion early on Friday evening 

2) Saturday temps warm to the lower 40’s with 1.5” rainfall 

3) temps crash after precipitation ends causing flash freeze, with the cold snap on brown ground

4) the packers are in the NFC championship game

5) I hate this winter. It sucks. 

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Just now, wisconsinwx said:

I do think the orientation of the snow totals may not be far off 12/1/07, this is similar in being a snow to dry slot/mix for Milwaukee and Chicago with no issues for precip type in Minneapolis.  One difference is this will likely stay snow a bit farther south than that one, as well as the time of day (and of course the former being an early winter storm).

Enjoy your 6" of snow.

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8 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Everyone of those analogs have the snow nowhere near where the models do this go around. Looks like a failure in analogs.

Well, always have to keep the limitations in mind.  Flipping through each one individually, almost none of them had a retreating 1045 mb high, so I'd have to think that is a factor in producing snow farther south.  Really, anytime you can get accumulating snow with a surface low track like this, take it as a win.  

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Well, always have to keep the limitations in mind.  Flipping through each one individually, almost none of them had a retreating 1045 mb high, so I'd have to think that is a factor in producing snow farther south.  Really, anytime you can get accumulating snow with a surface low track like this, take it as a win.  

Yeah and a lot of them had much warmer air at 850, hell the top analog had 10c into Iowa, that isn't even remotely happening this time.

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42 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

#1 CIPS analog is 12/1/2007.  Was in LAF back then but remember that storm.  One difference is that the warm nose aloft back then was stronger/farther north, so the ice won't get as far north this time. 

I received 1.5" of sleet and no snow from that storm.  Thankfully, tomorrow's system won't be a repeat.

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

I received 1.5" of sleet and no snow from that storm.

 I receive 1" of snow which then turned to rain and melted the snow overnight with that December 1st 2007 storm. An awesome Winter for sure, but a very forgettable storm here, had to look up what happened.

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9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12/1/2007 storm in question...

map

I remember it being a good ice storm in about the northern half of LOT.

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4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I remember it being a good ice storm in about the northern half of LOT.

It was a 0.25"+ event in parts of the area.

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26 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12/1/2007 storm in question...

map

Had some ice in Ann Arbor where I lived at the time. It was my birthday and when my spouse opened the front door to the wintry scene, a stray cat came sprinting in.

She’s been with us for twelve years now. 

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1 hour ago, Chambana said:

Recap of this storm for Champaign 

1) Ice accretion early on Friday evening 

2) Saturday temps warm to the lower 40’s with 1.5” rainfall 

3) temps crash after precipitation ends causing flash freeze, with the cold snap on brown ground

4) the packers are in the NFC championship game

5) I hate this winter. It sucks. 

take a step back....

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1 hour ago, Chambana said:

Recap of this storm for Champaign 

1) Ice accretion early on Friday evening 

2) Saturday temps warm to the lower 40’s with 1.5” rainfall 

3) temps crash after precipitation ends causing flash freeze, with the cold snap on brown ground

4) the packers are in the NFC championship game

5) I hate this winter. It sucks. 

Sucks for all of us pretty much

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I see models are initializing weaker with the high than it actually is. For example 0z hrrr has a 1042mb high when it's actually 1047mb. Curious if that's why some of these models are warning surface temperatures too quick. Could be slower with a stronger departing high

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