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Thundersnow12

January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential

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Over here on the warm side, marginal risk has been extended into Ohio for tomorrow.

Quote

..OH VALLEY  
 
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SEVERE RISK (DAMAGING GUSTS AND  
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO) WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO THE OH VALLEY  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. INTENSE WIND FIELDS  
COUPLED WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG MUCAPE WOULD SEEMINGLY SUPPORT A  
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS WITH A FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE  
BAND AS FAR NORTH AS OH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST SURFACE LOW  
TRACK.

 

swody2_categorical.png

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Cutters in Flyover Country are tough on models early on in the long storm track.  Some things will never change it seems.  Track at your own risk

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2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Looks like LOT will be upping snow totals to 3-5" for Chi metro based on ongoing conf call. 

one man's loss is another man's gain....

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10 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Looks like LOT will be upping snow totals to 3-5" for Chi metro based on ongoing conf call. 

What are they thinking for NW areas like Rockford? Same 3-6 inches that’s in the WSW?

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32 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

What not to post on social media

 

Why? Is this super confusing or something? The GFS and NAM-3km have some ice in these areas.

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I can't believe they issued a WSW for me in East Central WI. I thought for sure just a WWA with how these models have trended the past 24 hours. 

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57 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

Over here on the warm side, marginal risk has been extended into Ohio for tomorrow.

 

 

:oldman:there's an old saying about getting thunderstorms in winter....   accumulating snows a week  to 10 days later.   Granted, it's cheezy almanacian fluff, but I gotta tell ya....it does seem to happen more often than not.:oldman:

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HRRR brings another wave of precip across my area tomorrow morning, and while temps would definitely support snow, the complete lack of moisture in the DGZ suggests otherwise. Could get some more freezing rain or graupel rather than snow if it's right. 

hrrr_2020011020_018_41.59--92.07.png

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I was looking at the Ice Storm Index, but I am not sure what the wind means...Would that be wind speed or wind gusts?

 

We are supposed to have 11-16mph winds with gusts to 37mph, trying to figure out how severe it might be.

spia.PNG

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10 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

I was looking at the Ice Storm Index, but I am not sure what the wind means...Would that be wind speed or wind gusts?

 

We are supposed to have 11-16mph winds with gusts to 37mph, trying to figure out how severe it might be.

spia.PNG

Never have found an answer for that.  I would think it might be sustained winds but who knows.

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4 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

I was looking at the Ice Storm Index, but I am not sure what the wind means...Would that be wind speed or wind gusts?

 

We are supposed to have 11-16mph winds with gusts to 37mph, trying to figure out how severe it might be.

spia.PNG

Does this come in a slide rule?  Sperry and Piltz forgot to factor in the squirrel-weight index.   

 

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