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Thundersnow12

January 10th-12th Winter Storm Potential

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That did come in more north than previous runs... Cant't wait to track this storm and hopefully we get wintry precip here in the Detroit Metro! 

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If we get as wide of a snow zone as the Euro portrays, take it and run.

"And keep running".  - Hoosier. 

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Our eventual southern stream wave is still well out across the western PAC apart of a strong upper level low and as Hoosier mentioned in the other thread, might be several days until models get a good grasp on things with it not coming ashore till 12z Thursday and will be a fairly fast moving/low amplitude wave as it moves through the GOA on Wednesday. 

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33 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

RIP.


.

Just have the storm date with this as the header. Sorry for the copy right infringement thats sorta yours

giphy-1.gif

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The ice issues with this will be significant especially if a Euro 2 piece storm occurs. Certainly significant potential is there.

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Ahh looks like a classic Panhandle Hook on the horizon. I'd be pretty happy if I were in Chicago or Milwaukee, other points east are going to be in a much stickier ball game. 

 

Also the PWAT's on this look absolutely insane, the moisture rush out of the gulf could lead to an epic ice storm in the battleground. Definitely has the look of a big dog storm

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36 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

final call 1.3" of rain

Hope you are as inaccurate as your last call of 0.1 - 0.3".  Nice factor of 10 in there you missed with 1.5" at ORD.  Maybe downtown was less I don't know.

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Would be nice if we sneak one of those siggy storms that looks better and better as the runs continue through the storm. 

 

But fully expecting this to *SouthParkAndItsGone.gif*

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Seasonal trends would take this thing south and east, as every other pan handle hooker has done since early November.  While it's current track is favorable for the heart of the sub, seems too good to be true with how this season has gone.  

But I guess it's gotta change, and go against the grain at some point.....

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9 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Ahh looks like a classic Panhandle Hook on the horizon. I'd be pretty happy if I were in Chicago or Milwaukee, other points east are going to be in a much stickier ball game. 

 

Also the PWAT's on this look absolutely insane, the moisture rush out of the gulf could lead to an epic ice storm in the battleground. Definitely has the look of a big dog storm

Pretty nice subtropical jet stream influence. If this storm pans out, it'll be a decent storm for some. Been a while since we've seen a storm like this. 

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Agreed, especially since these tend to come in a little deeper than just about any other low pressure type that affects the region. The icing potential could be staggering however, especially for Indy, Detroit, Toledo, Cleveland and the GTA. Someone is going to get a ton in the freezing rain/sleet department if this pans out

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What a difference a day makes. I'll take some ice potential with a decent helping of snow over 5 days of cold January rain.  I'm going to try not and get to excited. 

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29 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Hope you are as inaccurate as your last call of 0.1 - 0.3".  Nice factor of 10 in there you missed with 1.5" at ORD.  Maybe downtown was less I don't know.

13" rain incoming at ord

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ECMWF doesn't really make any sense. It wants to develop something, but due to the generally slowing of the STJ, it tries to "cut if off" at the same time. The UKMET is much more likely if the trough stays whole, which it may not. If it doesn't, the slow down would probably align it with whats happening in the pacific. That big hammer coming into the west coast this weekend is causing the models problems. Its large and it going to cut out of very large trough west of the Mississippi next week.

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23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The top analog based on 12z runs.

NARR 4-Panel2008020618_FZRA48.png

The Super Tuesday storm.

I think you can make arguments either way -- north trend or south -- for this one.  As has been pointed out, the seasonal tendency has been to end up weaker/less phased than the med/long range progs suggest.  But since we aren't really looking for a phase in this case, perhaps we won't see the same magnitude of petering out that we've become used to. 

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4 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Alek bullseye on the 18z GFS. And not for a rainer

He will say ride the Euro if and when there is a Euro run that has a big rainer in Chicago.

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