sbnwx85 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1015 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-092315- /O.NEW.KGRR.WS.A.0001.200111T0300Z-200112T1500Z/ Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon- Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton- Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson- Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Clare, Hart, Fremont, Big Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Muskegon, Greenville, Alma, Grand Haven, Jenison, Grand Rapids, Ionia, St. Johns, Holland, Hastings, Charlotte, Lansing, South Haven, Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Jackson 1015 AM EST Thu Jan 9 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Rain transitioning to an icy mix is possible in southern portions of Michigan. An icy mix transitioning to snow is possible in central portions of Michigan. Snow, sleet, and ice accumulations may be significant. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest and west central Michigan. * WHEN...From Friday evening through Sunday morning. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Two day storm total precipitation amounts, which includes the combination of rain and snow or ice water content, could approach winter season historical records in Southern Michigan. Prepare for the possibility of extended power outages and canceled travel plans. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && About as strongly worded a watch as GRR has ever put out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 If we had cold air... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Really tough situation for IWX about the MI counties, could get nuclear ice or all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 All the models are now showing heavy snow in S WI saturday evening. Could definitely see some 1"+ rates for a period between 6pm and midnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metallica470 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 56 minutes ago, King James said: Went to HS in OF, go Bengals, drive safe Small world! I actually have to update my profile as I live in Chicago now, but grew up in OF! You drive safe as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: ride the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterStorm294 said: If we had cold air... Another situation where TT maps will be useless because of all the mixed precip. They really gotta fix that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Another situation where TT maps will be useless because of all the mixed precip. They really gotta fix that. It is surprising it includes sleet too, I thought most of the mixed precip in NE Illinois was progged to be freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: taint getting close to madison on this run Gotta ride the taint to get the best accums. Feeling good about my MBY - may have to deal with some "taint" but we should be close to some of the higher accums. Unfortunate how far off the GFS was with this in the 72+ range - never good when the NAM locks on to something in the long term first. Euro retains it title and the NW trend is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, wisconsinwx said: It is surprising it includes sleet too, I thought most of the mixed precip in NE Illinois was progged to be freezing rain? I think it does include freezing rain too even though it doesn't say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Nelson said: Gotta ride the taint to get the best accums. Feeling good about my MBY - may have to deal with some "taint" but we should be close to some of the higher accums. Unfortunate how far off the GFS was with this in the 72+ range - never good when the NAM locks on to something in the long term first. Euro retains it title and the NW trend is back. GEM did pretty well too; it was a NW occupant for much of the tracking time and had a (maybe too narrow) stripe of 8-14" of snow, which now all models seem to be latching onto. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 GFS is trying to throw 1+" of ice followed by 12" of snow for MBY. Not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, Nelson said: Gotta ride the taint to get the best accums. Feeling good about my MBY - may have to deal with some "taint" but we should be close to some of the higher accums. Unfortunate how far off the GFS was with this in the 72+ range - never good when the NAM locks on to something in the long term first. Euro retains it title and the NW trend is back. I'd debate a number of these assertions(prognostications) but it's really not worth the effort anymore. If your winter weather hound it's just good to have something to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: GFS is trying to throw 1+" of ice followed by 12" of snow for MBY. Not going to happen. think inch of rain...6" of clay. Anyone recall a storm system say around new years 1985...poured buckets and ended with 5-6" of heavy wet snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 16 minutes ago, madwx said: All the models are now showing heavy snow in S WI saturday evening. Could definitely see some 1"+ rates for a period between 6pm and midnight. I'm in eastern WI. Starting to get excited! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: GFS is trying to throw 1+" of ice followed by 12" of snow for MBY. Not going to happen. I've never seen anything like the GFS modeled in my backyard... about 4.5" qpf with well over 1" of it as freezing rain (NAM also has a band of 4"+ here). Can't take the modeled ice at face value but just commenting on the output itself. Crazy crazy stuff and helps to make up a bit for all the boring times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I've never seen anything like the GFS modeled in my backyard... about 4.5" qpf with well over 1" of it as freezing rain (NAM also has a band of 4"+ here). Can't take the modeled ice at face value but just commenting on the output itself. Crazy crazy stuff and helps to make up a bit for all the boring times. I’m going to post the ugliest pics of my muddy backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 With all of that warm, humid air out ahead of this storm system, the lack of instability forecasted seems unfortunate. I don't think it would take much CAPE at all to get severe-criteria thunderstorms from a storm system like this. Though I wouldn't be surprised to see a line of showers with severe wind gusts anywhere from SE IL to eastern OH with several models showing a potent low-level jet. (there wasn't a severe thread in this sub, as warm-sector severe isn't expected, so I thought it was best to put that here since it does relate to this storm) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Southern Mich better gas up the ole' generators if the ice were to verify even half of what its outputting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 There are still significant differences in terms of the placement of the warm front in Michigan. The NAM and GFS don't have any of the 40s or 50s getting into Michigan before the main precip while the Canadian models show warm temps making it up. This is a major difference because it determines whether the ground will be warm enough to avoid ice accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I've never seen anything like the GFS modeled in my backyard... about 4.5" qpf with well over 1" of it as freezing rain (NAM also has a band of 4"+ here). Can't take the modeled ice at face value but just commenting on the output itself. Crazy crazy stuff and helps to make up a bit for all the boring times. Don't get me wrong, it would be epic. But I don't trust the GFS at all at this point. But interesting to see what the rest of the 12z suite will show now that we have some sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 To illustrate the differences in the warm front placement...Taken at the same time for NAM and RDPS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Southern Mich better gas up the ole' generators if the ice were to verify even half of what its outputting. Despite what the models are showing on ice... it will be marginal at best. Heavy rates (Likely end up as sleet), marginal temps (31-32°), high wind, time of day... all will make it hard accrete what is modeled. Still worth watching though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said: There are still significant differences in terms of the placement of the warm front in Michigan. The NAM and GFS don't have any of the 40s or 50s getting into Michigan before the main precip while the Canadian models show warm temps making it up. This is a major difference because it determines whether the ground will be warm enough to avoid ice accumulation. It's been in the teens/20s lately. I think the ground will get icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Despite what the models are showing on ice... it will be marginal at best. Heavy rates (Likely end up as sleet), marginal temps (31-32°), high wind, time of day... all will make it hard accrete what is modeled. Still worth watching though. True its a tough call, GRR seems pretty bullish on ice somewhere even mentioned thunder ice which would be pretty rare impressive to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 12z Canadian and UK are both southeast and faster/weaker. Both models have removed anything significant for Iowa. My area is still on the nw edge of the snow on the GFS. For us, it's down to the Euro and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Right now, I would feel best if I lived about 40-60 miles north of Milwaukee, around Sheboygan. Even the weaker models show a maximum to the north near the lake (probably some lake enhancement). May well be a nice storm for GRB leading up to the game on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moosey2323 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Not sure if this has been posted yet, but an excellent read from the LOT AFD about the ice numbers shown on model output. Quote While the threat for icing (again potentially significant) does appear to be within the envelope of reasonable outcomes, it`s important to stress a couple points about raw ice/freezing rain output from numerical guidance. The most salient point here is that raw freezing rain output is simply a model`s total liquid qpf (which is deemed to be freezing rain), converted to the same amount of ice. There are, however, several processes occurring at the sub-grid scale that NWP guidance does not resolve, such as the effects of latent heat release as liquid drops freeze. The heavier/steadier the rate, the more latent heat is released, ultimately slowing the rate of ice accretion. Some recent research performed by Sanders and Barjenbruch (2016) show that for steadier rates, the ratio of ice to liquid can be as low as 0.25 or even less! 6-hourly QPF from the NAM, which continues to develop huge ice amounts into Saturday morning, taken verbatim would indicate hourly rates around 0.15+ inch/hour, corresponding to ice:liquid ratios near or below 0.25. This would indicate a good deal of just liquid runoff. As a result, we continue to take these extreme values with many grains of salt at this range. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I am getting excited for this storm. Even MKX is starting to get on board with things and they have downplaying this storm all week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 If anyone can see the GEM Ensembles when they come out, that'd be cool. If they do not support the OP, then it would help a lot of us feel better that it's out to lunch narrowing the snow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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