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MountainGeek

Tuesday 1/7/20 Disco snow event

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

18z Euro and 00z NAM both get DC about 0.45” QPF...heavy rates will easily overcome surface temps.  And just above the surface is cold so the rates will bring down those colder temperates to the surface too.  #weenie

NAM looks like it extends the snow way further north into PA than the 18z NAM or Euro did.  Probably because it's the NAM

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

NAM 3km looks fine.  
 

On the 12km NAM, the striking thing is the below freezing temps down to 975mb.  If that holds, it won’t matter a bit what the surface starts at.

1578448800-uO0PUZsy2VA.png

I don't like the super sharp edge but other than that, hard to complain.

Down to 38/18 in NW Arlington.

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NAM's ratio's are really solid from Leesburg and west right at the start. 11-12 to 1 for the entire event. Really looking forward to tomorrow. I will be in Harrisonburg, VA until around noon. Then driving up the Shenandoah Valley on 81 to Winchester. Should be fun.

31/19 NW of Winchester.

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM's ratio's are really solid from Leesburg and west right at the start. 11-12 to 1 for the entire event. Really looking forward to tomorrow. I will be in Harrisonburg, VA until around noon. Then driving up the Shenandoah Valley on 81 to Winchester. Should be fun.

31/19 NW of Winchester.

      I'll bite.    Where are you getting that the NAM ratios are 11-12:1???

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Nam is drier IMBY, but I’ll take it. 

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6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

More rain before this frame, but that is a nice sh-lacking! nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.png

Interesting how the r/s line follows the 534 and not the 540.

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Apparently it’s 3° (33F) colder than what was expected (36F) right now. I don’t trust it, but maybe a good sign?

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

ratioku.us_ma.png

           Ah, so it's a Kuchera-derived product.   And I missed that you were referring to areas well west of DC Metro.    Thanks!

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14 minutes ago, Amped said:

NAM looks like it extends the snow way further north into PA than the 18z NAM or Euro did.  Probably because it's the NAM

NAM is finally getting a clue imo. A s/w and slp track like the NAM has shown along with the forcing shouldn't have been drying out like it was showing prior to the 18z runs. Maybe overdone on totals(?) but the qpf depiction given what I mentioned finally make sense. It's not like it's running into a dry 1059mb hp wedge.

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

           Ah, so it's a Kuchera-derived product.   And I missed that you were referring to areas well west of DC Metro.    Thanks!

This is at 18z btw... so DC metro snow is just getting going at the time with that image

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The one thing with this storm is that when the precip moves into the area, it'll come in hot and heavy. First precip may start as rain for some (Mainly DC south and east), but as precip intensifies, we'll see sufficient wet bulbing with boundary layer temps falling quickly below freezing. Lift during the afternoon will be stout with H7 VV's very impressive for a short period across NoVa through Central MD between 18-00z. H7 wind field indicates a finger of 50-55 kts out of the southwest across north-central VA sliding east through MD and the Delmarva. This is some prolific moisture enhancement right near the DGZ in tandem with the strong lift focused overhead. This is why models, despite showing precip only 4-8 hrs max, showing 2-4" now across the region. There will be embedded banding structures within the main QPF shield, adding to the localized precip max we typically see with these types of setups. I don't see stickage to pavement being a problem almost anywhere (Maybe DC at the start). This should be a wintery scene over the area. Look forward to living vicariously ^_^

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This is realistic and should be a better indicator especially in marginal situations. Still a nice little treat:

While I agree that positive snow depth change is useful to compare with 10:1 maps, I agree with WxUSAF’s comment earlier that it may be a little underdone.  It’s not like its 36 with light precip falling over 7 hours.  A middle ground between 10:1 & snow depth change is probably a little more realistic.  

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Just about no one I spoke to knows anything about this snow, which is now less than 18 hrs out.  Could be a mess.  

Local D.C. Mets really downplaying this

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17 minutes ago, mappy said:

Nam is drier IMBY, but I’ll take it. 

No more worry about being fringed though ..anyway . 3knam went from sunny skies here at 6z to fringed at 12z and bumping north steadily.  Should be fun everywhere in central Md tomorrow through south central pa. 

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Just now, Solution Man said:

Local D.C. Mets really downplaying this

was about to say the same thing from what I am seeing this looks like 3 inches area wide and heavy rates for about 2-3 hours 

 

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This may be the first snow to surpass an inch here. OFC, this is my soul speaking from the graveyard. I could be looking at a couple inches above my grave at the surface.

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I don't even want to imagine what the commute tomorrow night is going to be like even if roads are just wet. A heavy burst of snow potentially centering on 3-6pm...I"m already in the car for 1.5-2 hours ONE WAY a day. 

Going to be a fun day of radar tracking tomorrow. 

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4 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Local D.C. Mets really downplaying this

We've all seen this movie before so hopefully nobody gets butthurt if it follows history....that said things feel good out this way for a pretty landscape 

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Just now, Solution Man said:

Local D.C. Mets really downplaying this

They are following the NWS cues in my opinion.  And with no WWA in the immediate metro they have no reason to get too excited.   

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