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George BM

January Banter 2020

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50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d imagine the March 93 storm showed itself early, and with now ancient models.

As I recall at the time, the global medium range model (LFM, limited fine mesh!!) of that day had it about a week in advance.  And it was being widely discussed 5-7 days out in terms of its potential and severity.  It was heralded as a numerical model success, for good reason.  That system was similar to other "big dogs" like Feb. 2010 or Jan. 2016 (I assume Jan. 1996 too?), where the synoptic setup was just so blatantly clear, and models tend to grab onto those early and not waver much at all.

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We spend the entire run after Saturday with below 0 850s EXCEPT for the 12 hours it’s precipitating...and it’s not a cutter..it’s a 984 bomb off Ocean City. SMH 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This isn’t fair 

55F32AFC-BDE2-406B-9F23-FDBF9DCB4859.thumb.png.77f3d49ca0cd278e3a57e10c5ff0feac.png

Huh?  OK, seriously...WTF is going on there?  I have to assume there's some kind of shortwave around the Lakes area screwing up the flow or something like that.  Or simply no antecedent cold air in place at all.

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2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Huh?  OK, seriously...WTF is going on there?  I have to assume there's some kind of shortwave around the Lakes area screwing up the flow or something like that.  Or simply no antecedent cold air in place at all.

Exactly right. A northern stream shortwave/low draws mild air on return flow. Thing is... models can't get the NS right 3-5 days in advance. Last thing I'm worried about on fantasy op panels is a NS shortwave. It may end up happening but no f'n way the gfs just "figured it out"

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17 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Huh?  OK, seriously...WTF is going on there?  I have to assume there's some kind of shortwave around the Lakes area screwing up the flow or something like that.  Or simply no antecedent cold air in place at all.

It actually trended better. But still too much ridging in front and not enough behind so the mid level trough goes neutral too far west and floods us with mild air on the southerly flow ahead of it. Strengthen the ridge to the west and weaken the ridge to the east and it’s suddenly a big snow. Like I said yesterday it’s a cows fart in the right direction from a snowstorm. But gotta laugh at that. That would be painful. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Exactly right. A northern stream shortwave/low draws mild air on return flow. Thing is... models can't get the NS right 3-5 days in advance. Last thing I'm worried about on fantasy op panels is a NS shortwave. It may end up happening but no f'n way the gfs just "figured it out"

Yup...well, that just figures!  But you're correct, it's not worth worrying about how the GFS is handling a NS shortwave that far out...if there even is a NS wave by then in that precise location.

 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

It actually trended better. But still too much rushing in front and not enough behind so the mid level trough goes neutral too far west and floods us with mild air on the southerly flow ahead of it. Strengthen the ridge to the west and weaken the ridge to the east and it’s suddenly a big snow. Like I said yesterday it’s a cows fart in the right direction from a snowstorm. But gotta laugh at that. That would be painful. 

Butterfly wings flapping is a prettier image, but cow's fart works too!! :lol:

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Just realized on weather.us that it has the icon and it shows ice on the significant weather parameter. I think most everyone knows that on TT it doesn't differentiate between ice and plain rain.

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20 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Eastern MD. Old bay is only good if there's old bay on it.

Image result for i like old bay on my old bay

Okay, Don’t hurt me, or do, but I’m not a huge fan of Old Bay... Maybe because I haven’t tried putting Old bay on my Old Bay...

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Alrighty, back to Calculus... See weather? I’m behaving!

Also, Question: What is the different on TT between “MSLP and Precip” and “Radar (Rain/Frozen)? The Radar one shows snow in places where there would be rain on the MSLP map. The Precip Radar map also looks a tad different... maybe smoother? Or less abundant?

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2 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Alrighty, back to Calculus... See weather? I’m behaving!

Also, Question: What is the different on TT between “MSLP and Precip” and “Radar (Rain/Frozen)? The Radar one shows snow in places where there would be rain on the MSLP map. The Precip Radar map also looks a tad different... maybe smoother? Or less abundant?

Radar is an instantaneous snapshot of precipitation. The MSLP panel includes 6 hours of precip

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The August fog correlation says no big snowstorms at all this winter here because I don't remember seeing much fog during August last year

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3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

The August fog correlation says no big snowstorms at all this winter here because I don't remember seeing much fog during August last year

Plenty of January fog.  

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13 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Plenty of January fog.  

This means plenty of snows for June, July and August. Get your snowblowers ready.

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I have to admit that I am very discouraged.  I know that it is too premature to give up hope completely (not yet Reaper), but I cannot escape the feeling that this upcoming respite is really just a relaxation of the crappy pattern, the mirror image of a January thaw. 

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4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs finally has a more classic setup. That's the good news. Bad news is it's 13 days away and will be gone in 6 hours. 

Probably nearing time we should start tracking another President's Day storm.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Time for a miracle run.

There’s always one that brings everyone back 

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