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January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

I know right?  I took the bait... 

 

Worse than that you bull$%RT^Y&U*I and got caught 

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6 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

Worse than that you bull$%RT^Y&U*I and got caught 

LOL.   I did think you were talking CMC and not Euro.  My Bad, but that's not an arctic airmass (outside of ME/NH/VT and even that is retreating) and the overall pattern sucks and does not look to be changing. It's like last year but only warmer...  I hope we get something in Feb, but I won't bet the ranch on it.

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

LOL.   I did think you were talking CMC and not Euro.  My Bad, but that's not an arctic airmass and the overall pattern sucks and does not look to be changing. It's like last year but only warmer...  I hope we get something in Feb, but I won't bet the ranch on it.

 

I was only pointing out the correction it made from Chicago 2 days ago to off the Delmarva.

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3 minutes ago, PB-99 said:

 

I was only pointing out the correction it made from Chicago 2 days ago to off the Delmarva.

I actually hope this becomes the 50/50 low for the next storm...

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

I actually hope this becomes the 50/50 low for the next storm...

I hope there`s a next storm !

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34 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Indeed. One can see the modeled tropical forcing returning to those spatial domains in February, which will play a role in the developing February regime as delineated in my update post.

The other interesting thing is the really delayed responses we have seen following MJO 8 passages during our recent winters. Last February we entered phase 8 but the snowy conditions came in March. February 2018 featured the historic 80 degree warmth shortly after the MJO 8 passage. The record snows came in March 2018. The only reasonably close in time event was the 1-4-18 benchmark blizzard that bottomed out at 950 mb. That came shortly after the phase 8 in late December. The January 2016 blizzard came about 10 days after phase 8. I know that there have been studies showing a snowstorm lag following phase 8. But sometimes it seems to take longer than even the studies have indicated. 

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1 minute ago, psv88 said:

NYC wont reach 20" of snow this year. Thats my call.

Possible. 

 

I think you and I will tho. 

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Just now, psv88 said:

NYC wont reach 20" of snow this year. Thats my call.

tomorrow will be pivotal for this call.   If NYC gets less than 2 inches then this call is looking good-if they put up a 4 or 5 then much tougher IMO.

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

With 2 months to go ? Bold

if you made that call at this point last year one would have been correct.   NYC finished with about 20 inches with a similar YTD going into the 1/20 period.  Finished around 30 here but most of that was from the Nov storm (6) and March storm (11)

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The other interesting thing is the really delayed responses we have seen following MJO 8 passages during our recent winters. Last February we entered phase 8 but the snowy conditions came in March. February 2018 featured the historic 80 degree warmth shortly after the MJO 8 passage. The record snows came in March 2018. The only reasonably close in time event was the 1-4-18 benchmark blizzard that bottomed out at 950 mb. That came shortly after the phase 8 in late December. The January 2016 blizzard came about 10 days after phase 8. I know that there have been studies showing a snowstorm lag following phase 8. But sometimes it seems to take longer than even the studies have indicated. 

 

It is quite interesting, Chris, and I've been ruminating on some hypotheses re: the time-lag and distorted response. One issue, in my view, is base-state resonance. Sometimes the MJO/intraseasonal signal is misaligned with the base state, and as such, when it propagates through typically conducive phases, the N HEM response may not be bonafide/favorable due to the misalignment with the background indicators. For example, 2002-03 had a much more classic AAM/GWO and hadley/walker cell structures concordant with a canonical El Nino, and thus when MJO circulated to 8, we had a more genuine N HEM response.

Another issue, the PDO has become much more negative over the past month, as last winter was. This amplifies -AAM resonance and retards proper +AAM transport.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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