jm1220 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 4 hours ago, bluewave said: We got lucky in March when the strong -EPO disrupted the unfavorable pattern. But there was enough of a lingering influence so the best snows were NYC-LI North Shore, and CT. I only got about 4” here on the South Shore last March. March was a good month up here, about 10-12” between three events. At times there was 4-5” on the ground here and almost zilch in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Rendering the PDO and AMO meaningless, so only ENSO counts? Lol Wow, that is earth shattering if true and also proves a completely changed climate But they've served us so well with seasonal outlooks /s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Looks more probable that we see a cutter driven muddied torch post 1/9. This means generally rainy, cloudy weather with temps in the 50s to low 60s and very warm mins. Not great if you were hoping for dry/mild weather like 01/02 or 11/12. For the coldest period climo wise these are easily +10 to +20 AN numbers but not quite record breaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 every one thinks it will be that warm and last that long well think again . dont count on that . i wouldnt be surprise if got snow during the warm up that model show . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or 8 degs. AN.[used 43/56 for today]. At this rate the last 20 days of January will need to be -4.5 to get us back to Normal. Some 60's are more likely than seeing any snow for the next 15 days. CFS shows no Snow on the ground here till Jan. 25. The CFS is a Notorious Malcreant that loves to show a White Christmas but never says which year it is referring to. 49* at 6am. 48*(all night) Back to 48* and 1/4mi. Fog by 7am. 50* since Noon *(2pm now)-same Fog. Down to 44* by 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 4, 2020 Author Share Posted January 4, 2020 Picked up 0.10" of rain for the day yesterday and 0.14" of rain so far today. Storm total so far 0.24" Current temp 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 .04" yesterday and nothing today, 44°. Not much of a storm... It is super thick fog with a few random raindrops falling now though so everything is soggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 43F Dense Fog Less than 1/4 to 1/2 mile depending on where you are on the ridge lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Unusually warm minimums across the whole area since December 23rd. White Plains just experienced the 3 warmest minimum on record12-23 to 01-03. NYC was the 2nd warmest over the same period. While these wet and cloudy warm ups limit the high temperature potential, the minimum temperatures have trouble falling with the clouds and higher dewpoints. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 3 Missing Count 1 2016-01-03 28 0 2 2007-01-03 27 0 - 2004-01-03 27 0 - 1983-01-03 27 0 3 2019-01-03 26 0 - 2006-01-03 26 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 3 Missing Count 1 2007-01-03 33 0 2 2020-01-03 32 0 - 2019-01-03 32 0 - 2016-01-03 32 0 - 2006-01-03 32 0 - 1983-01-03 32 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Looks more probable that we see a cutter driven muddied torch post 1/9. This means generally rainy, cloudy weather with temps in the 50s to low 60s and very warm mins. Not great if you were hoping for dry/mild weather like 01/02 or 11/12. For the coldest period climo wise these are easily +10 to +20 AN numbers but not quite record breaking. sounds like a cooler version of December 2015.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Maybe a bit of snow during the week? Models are trending more progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said: January 2017 blizzard showed up in my Facebook memories today. Ugh Yep 2 years ago today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 There remains broad agreement among the ECMWF, GEFS, and bias-corrected GEFS that the MJO will be progressing to Phase 4 at an amplitude in excess of +1.500. Afterward, it should progress into Phase 5. The result will be a pattern that favors ridging in the means from January 10-17 and perhaps somewhat longer. Afterward, if past cases of such high amplitude MJO passages through Phase 4 during the January 5-20 period are representative, it should move toward and likely into Phases 7 and 8, if only for a short time. In a majority of cases, the 500 mb pattern changes dramatically to one that favors a ridge in the West and trough in the East. However, in a not insignificant cluster of cases, the pattern adjusts somewhat, but ridging continues to predominate in the East. 15-day Mean 500 mb Anomalies for the period beginning 10 days after the MJO Peaks in Phase 4 at an amplitude of +1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period: One teleconnection appears to offer insight into how the pattern will evolve. All of the cases that went into the cluster that saw ridging persist in the East had a PNA that remained persistently and predominantly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: January 2017 blizzard showed up in my Facebook memories today. Ugh Don't even remember it....where was it ? ( I t certainly wasn't IMBY ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 5 hours ago, blizzard24 said: every one thinks it will be that warm and last that long well think again . dont count on that . i wouldnt be surprise if got snow during the warm up that model show . It's never really a surprise to see snow in Jan, even in an unfavorable season. Saw it in '12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Don't even remember it....where was it ? ( I t certainly wasn't IMBY ) It was the bomb cyclone big winds and over a foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Don't even remember it....where was it ? ( I t certainly wasn't IMBY ) 1-4-18 was the lowest MSLP blizzard on record to move over the 40/70 benchmark at 950 mb. The follow up record snows in March and early April when ISP went 30”+ marked the end of the benchmark storm track through today. Almost like a grand finale of a fireworks show. Everyone wants to know when the cutter and hugger storms tracks will shift back to the benchmark. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 45 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Maybe a bit of snow during the week? Models are trending more progressive 88 sorry to say that I dont believe much of anything that the models show especially when it is more the 24 or 48 hours out. I hope they are correct THIS TIME but I am not buying in until i see it happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 47 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 sorry to say that I dont believe much of anything that the models show especially when it is more the 24 or 48 hours out. I hope they are correct THIS TIME but I am not buying in until i see it happen Agree especially what's happening this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Models continuing with one of the strongest MJO phase 4-5 events on record for January. This could keep a warm SE ridge pattern in place through the 20th . More models getting over to phase 6 near the end of the runs which is still a warm phase for us. We are still experiencing the lagged warmth from the late December phase 6 passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Nam past 84 hour would be a nice event even down to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: Models continuing with one of the strongest MJO phase 4-5 events on record for January. This could keep a warm SE ridge pattern in place through the 20th or 24th. More models getting over to phase 6 near the end of the runs which is still a warm phase for us. We are still experiencing the lagged warmth from the late December phase 6 passage. The GEFS has continued to shift toward a higher amplitude passage through the Maritime Continent. I suspect that's part of the reason the 6z GEFS showed a fleeting flattening of the ridge and then its rebound in the extended range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Ensembles are quite wet, the active Pacific jet will keep feeding us moisture. It's like a tropical pattern in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Ensembles are quite wet, the active Pacific jet will keep feeding us moisture. It's like a tropical pattern in January. Ugh. Backyard is a swamp as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: Models continuing with one of the strongest MJO phase 4-5 events on record for January. This could keep a warm SE ridge pattern in place through the 20th or 24th. More models getting over to phase 6 near the end of the runs which is still a warm phase for us. We are still experiencing the lagged warmth from the late December phase 6 passage. It’s becoming clear that any large scale long wave pattern change is going to have to wait until early-mid February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The GEFS has continued to shift toward a higher amplitude passage through the Maritime Continent. I suspect that's part of the reason the 6z GEFS showed a fleeting flattening of the ridge and then its rebound in the extended range. Yeah, I saw that. This could be one of our warmest January 10th to 20th periods on record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 10 to Jan 20 Missing Count 1 1932-01-20 46.6 0 2 1995-01-20 44.3 0 3 1937-01-20 41.7 0 4 2006-01-20 41.6 0 5 1933-01-20 41.4 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Looking at the CFS weeklies and extrapolating, the last 2 weeks look good but the trough in the east already looks to be migrating to the west again. I would hate to think that we are only looking at a 2 week window of opportunity before it goes warm again. May be one of those winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Looking at the CFS weeklies and extrapolating, the last 2 weeks look good but the trough in the east already looks to be migrating to the west again. I would hate to think that we are only looking at a 2 week window of opportunity before it goes warm again. May be one of those winters. Not sure but many people think February and March will be really good with the MJO traveling into 7 and 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Maybe a bit of snow during the week? Models are trending more progressive This is actually something to track in this garbage winter, even if it is only an inch or so. We all know the period after this is an abomination. I think that has been discussed ad nauseam at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4, 2020 Share Posted January 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Not sure but many people think February and March will be really good with the MJO traveling into 7 and 8. Yeah we would definitely get a window, just hope it's not limited. We can score big with a 4 week window, however 2 weeks is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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