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Rtd208

January 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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Temperatures continued to run above normal in the region. In the Southeast, record high temperatures were tied and toppled. Select records there included:

Jacksonville: 85° (tied January record set on January 30, 2013); Pensacola: 79°; Savannah: 80°; and, Wilmington, NC: 77° (tied daily record).

Some of this warmth will push northward for a day tomorrow. Readings could soar into the middle and even upper 60s in such cities as Baltimore and Washington and into the middle 50s into southern New England.

The first week of the month remains on track to average 5° or more above normal across much of the region. New York City will likely have a mean temperature of 40° or above. Since 1869, there were 23 cases when the first week of January had a mean temperature of 40° or above in New York City. In 17 (74%), January wound up warmer than normal and in 12 (52%), January had a mean temperature of 35° or above. The average monthly temperature for January for all 23 cases was 36.0° (median temperature: 35.6°).

A short-duration cold shot is possible after the first week of January. A small window of opportunity for at least some snowfall in the region and especially across central/upstate New York and New England could exist until around January 10.

Based on the forecast strongly positive AO, the probability of a significant (6" or greater snowstorm) for the major cities of the Middle Atlantic region during the first 10 days of January is low. Since 1950, the biggest snowfall for that region when the AO was +2.000 or above during the January 1-15 period occurred during January 14-15, 1954 when Philadelphia received 3.0" snow and New York City picked up 2.0". Boston has had numerous 6" or greater snowstorms during such cases, including one 10" or greater snowstorm. Therefore, the risk of significant snow would likely be greatest over New England assuming this relationship holds (no significant offsetting variables). Such a scenario does not preclude the possibility of a light snow event across parts of the region during this timeframe, particularly during the January 5-9 period.

Afterward, a tendency for ridging with warmer than normal temperatures prevailing will very likely develop during the latter part of the second week of the month and persist through at least mid-month. Afterward, the progression of the MJO and state of the teleconnections will determine the pattern evolution for the second half of the month.

Right now, there is strong consensus between the EPS and GEFS that the PNA will remain negative to strongly negative past mid-month. That typically translates in warm anomalies in the Middle Atlantic region. For the January 16-31, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature for New York City and Philadelphia was 32.2° and 32.1° respectively. When the PNA was negative, those values were 34.2° and 34.1° respectively. The coldest mean temperatures for PNA- periods occurred when the EPO and AO were both negative. The warmest occurred when the EPO and AO were both positive.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around December 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions.

The SOI was -7.34 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.949.

No significant stratospheric warming event appears likely through January 12, several periods of warming appear likely to develop in the upper stratosphere and approach or reach 5 mb over the next 10 days. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively muted following the first week of the month. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS.

On January 2, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.516 (RMM). The January 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.558.

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52 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We got lucky in March when the strong -EPO disrupted the unfavorable pattern. But there was enough of a lingering influence so the best snows were NYC-LI North Shore, and CT. I only got about 4” here on the South Shore last March.
 

82A5AC9A-30D9-4117-B881-6CCD896B76C7.png.77f98e5288dfd06b569a99a07baa0e6a.png

 

Yeah, the -epo was the only thing favorable on that map. I got more then half my seasonal snowfall that weekend. Unfortunately, the mid level warmth came in quicker then forecast(as always) for that Sunday night event. It quickly turned the snow to rain on the coast. 

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New Research: AMO, PDO Appear not to Exist...

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) do not appear to exist, according to a team of meteorologists who believe this has implications for both the validity of previous studies attributing past trends to these hypothetical natural oscillations and for the prospects of decade-scale climate predictability.

Using both observational data and climate model simulations, the researchers showed that there was no consistent evidence for decadal or longer-term internal oscillatory signals that could be differentiated from climatic noise—random year to year variation. The only verifiable oscillation is the well-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

"A distinct—40 to 50 year timescale—spectral peak that appears in global surface temperature observations appears to reflect the response of the climate system to a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing rather than any intrinsic internal oscillation," the researchers report today (Jan. 3) in Nature Communications.

https://phys.org/news/2020-01-atlantic-pacific-oscillations-lost-noise.html

The paper can be found at:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-13823-w

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Great post. That background state last February was probably related to the warm pool west of the date line. So even though the RMM charts went though phases 6-1, the actual VP anomalies indicated primary forcing between phase 6-7 regions. Almost like a MJO 6.5.

02466C6A-618E-4124-86E6-0314A6C5FCF7.png.83036d6d1155a554618f0e9eb8ac1c92.png

 

76EFB2FF-DCC8-41FF-819C-DE9B583BE282.thumb.gif.a51495b743575c429ae89125e60ba0e2.gif

3E8CAC38-383A-4803-ACA7-082BEA6C7307.png.33f6d6c022bf77810d19f6886e19dad5.png

 

 

Thanks, Chris. In addition to that warm pool to which you describe, another issue, IMO, was the transport of momentum generally south of the equator w/ that intraseasonal MJO passage last February. Note the z850 zonal wind anomalies; most of which were directed south of the equator [circa 5-S latitude], so we didn't benefit as much in the northern hemisphere.

Composite Plot

 

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, the -epo was the only thing favorable on that map. I got more then half my seasonal snowfall that weekend. Unfortunately, the mid level warmth came in quicker then forecast(as always) for that Sunday night event. It quickly turned the snow to rain on the coast. 

 

Indeed - My total snowfall after February 15th last winter was 6.9", while the entire Dec 1-Feb 14th period featured 2.8". Certainly an improvement - though not to a very favorable regime - but better than nothing. It will be interesting to see how the rest of this season evolves.

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Eke!     The nothing cold of Jan 7,8,9 looks better than the drop at the end of run:

2020010312_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

New Research: AMO, PDO Appear not to Exist...

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) do not appear to exist, according to a team of meteorologists who believe this has implications for both the validity of previous studies attributing past trends to these hypothetical natural oscillations and for the prospects of decade-scale climate predictability.

Using both observational data and climate model simulations, the researchers showed that there was no consistent evidence for decadal or longer-term internal oscillatory signals that could be differentiated from climatic noise—random year to year variation. The only verifiable oscillation is the well-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

"A distinct—40 to 50 year timescale—spectral peak that appears in global surface temperature observations appears to reflect the response of the climate system to a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing rather than any intrinsic internal oscillation," the researchers report today (Jan. 3) in Nature Communications.

https://phys.org/news/2020-01-atlantic-pacific-oscillations-lost-noise.html

The paper can be found at:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-13823-w

 

This is actually hilarious if true.  

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8 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

This is actually hilarious if true.  

Rendering the PDO and AMO meaningless, so only ENSO counts? Lol Wow, that is earth shattering if true and also proves a completely changed climate

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53 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

Thanks, Chris. In addition to that warm pool to which you describe, another issue, IMO, was the transport of momentum generally south of the equator w/ that intraseasonal MJO passage last February. Note the z850 zonal wind anomalies; most of which were directed south of the equator [circa 5-S latitude], so we didn't benefit as much in the northern hemisphere.

Composite Plot

 

 

Indeed - My total snowfall after February 15th last winter was 6.9", while the entire Dec 1-Feb 14th period featured 2.8". Certainly an improvement - though not to a very favorable regime - but better than nothing. It will be interesting to see how the rest of this season evolves.

Being inland a bit helped, as that late season surge got me to just 2" below average.  

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

We got lucky in March when the strong -EPO disrupted the unfavorable pattern. But there was enough of a lingering influence so the best snows were NYC-LI North Shore, and CT. I only got about 4” here on the South Shore last March.
 

82A5AC9A-30D9-4117-B881-6CCD896B76C7.png.77f98e5288dfd06b569a99a07baa0e6a.png

 

March was a good month up here, about 10-12” between three events. At times there was 4-5” on the ground here and almost zilch in Long Beach. 

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2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Rendering the PDO and AMO meaningless, so only ENSO counts? Lol Wow, that is earth shattering if true and also proves a completely changed climate

But they've served us so well with seasonal outlooks :(

/s

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Looks more probable that we see a cutter driven muddied torch post 1/9.

This means generally rainy, cloudy weather with temps in the 50s to low 60s and very warm mins. Not great if you were hoping for dry/mild weather like 01/02 or 11/12.

For the coldest period climo wise these are easily +10 to +20 AN numbers but not quite record breaking. 

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every one thinks it will be that warm and last that long well think again . dont count on that . i wouldnt be surprise if got snow during the warm up that model show .

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The next 8 days are averaging 41degs., or 8 degs. AN.[used 43/56 for today].    At this rate the last 20 days of January will need to be -4.5 to get us back to Normal.    Some 60's are more likely than seeing any snow for the next 15 days. 

CFS shows no Snow on the ground here till Jan. 25.      The CFS is a Notorious Malcreant that loves to show a White Christmas but never says which year it is referring to.

 

49* at 6am.  48*(all night)    Back to 48* and 1/4mi. Fog by 7am.     50* since Noon *(2pm now)-same Fog.     Down to 44* by 10pm.

 

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Unusually warm minimums across the whole area since December 23rd. White Plains just experienced the 3 warmest minimum on record12-23 to 01-03. NYC was the 2nd warmest over the same period. While these wet and cloudy warm ups limit the high temperature potential, the minimum temperatures have trouble falling with the clouds and higher dewpoints.
 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 3
Missing Count
1 2016-01-03 28 0
2 2007-01-03 27 0
- 2004-01-03 27 0
- 1983-01-03 27 0
3 2019-01-03 26 0
- 2006-01-03 26 0

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 3
Missing Count
1 2007-01-03 33 0
2 2020-01-03 32 0
- 2019-01-03 32 0
- 2016-01-03 32 0
- 2006-01-03 32 0
- 1983-01-03 32 0
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6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Looks more probable that we see a cutter driven muddied torch post 1/9.

This means generally rainy, cloudy weather with temps in the 50s to low 60s and very warm mins. Not great if you were hoping for dry/mild weather like 01/02 or 11/12.

For the coldest period climo wise these are easily +10 to +20 AN numbers but not quite record breaking. 

sounds like a cooler version of December 2015....

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1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

January 2017 blizzard showed up in my Facebook memories today. Ugh

Yep 2 years ago today

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There remains broad agreement among the ECMWF, GEFS, and bias-corrected GEFS that the MJO will be progressing to Phase 4 at an amplitude in excess of +1.500. Afterward, it should progress into Phase 5. The result will be a pattern that favors ridging in the means from January 10-17 and perhaps somewhat longer.

Afterward, if past cases of such high amplitude MJO passages through Phase 4 during the January 5-20 period are representative, it should move toward and likely into Phases 7 and 8, if only for a short time.

In a majority of cases, the 500 mb pattern changes dramatically to one that favors a ridge in the West and trough in the East. However, in a not insignificant cluster of cases, the pattern adjusts somewhat, but ridging continues to predominate in the East.

15-day Mean 500 mb Anomalies for the period beginning 10 days after the MJO Peaks in Phase 4 at an amplitude of +1.500 or above during the January 5-20 period:

MJO01042020.jpg

One teleconnection appears to offer insight into how the pattern will evolve. All of the cases that went into the cluster that saw ridging persist in the East had a PNA that remained persistently and predominantly negative.

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8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

January 2017 blizzard showed up in my Facebook memories today. Ugh

Don't even remember it....where was it ? ( I t certainly wasn't IMBY )

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5 hours ago, blizzard24 said:

every one thinks it will be that warm and last that long well think again . dont count on that . i wouldnt be surprise if got snow during the warm up that model show .

It's never really a surprise to see snow in Jan, even in an unfavorable season. Saw it in '12. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Don't even remember it....where was it ? ( I t certainly wasn't IMBY )

It was the bomb cyclone big winds and over a foot of snow

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9 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Don't even remember it....where was it ? ( I t certainly wasn't IMBY )

1-4-18 was the lowest MSLP blizzard on record to move over the 40/70 benchmark at 950 mb. The follow up record snows in March and early April when ISP went 30”+ marked the end of the benchmark storm track through today. Almost like a grand finale of a fireworks show. Everyone wants to know when the cutter and hugger storms tracks will shift back to the benchmark.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

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45 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Maybe a bit of snow during the week?

Models are trending more progressive 

88 sorry to say that I dont believe much of anything that the models show especially when it is more the 24 or 48 hours out. I hope they are correct THIS TIME but I am not buying in until i see it happen 

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47 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88 sorry to say that I dont believe much of anything that the models show especially when it is more the 24 or 48 hours out. I hope they are correct THIS TIME but I am not buying in until i see it happen 

Agree especially what's happening this winter. 

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Models continuing with one of the strongest MJO phase 4-5 events on record for January. This could keep a warm SE ridge pattern in place through the 20th . More models getting over to phase 6 near the end of the runs which is still a warm phase for us. We are still experiencing the lagged warmth from the late December phase 6 passage.

A9EA835D-8A15-4BAB-971F-07D6D9DBCE4E.gif.976ff51483837cbb6bb567759035032e.gifA3E4C216-E0C2-4F9B-88EC-73705CFD311C.gif.4e5831374c73c6d558dddd52acb3a095.gif

3E1F0F5C-1792-4DB2-B0C7-78DD2EA861E2.png.007afe78cc79ecce56cf76c9357d4c72.png

 

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