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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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I mean boundary layer is pretty warm but this is an interesting look. System phases much sooner and further west. Not a bad look at all. Still missing the cold at the surface but one would think flakes would be flying for at least a period somewhere in the piedmont with this setup

76817F9F-ECB1-4FA9-92B8-10FD2BAD849C.jpeg

95041F38-152C-4062-AE9A-374BA6003458.jpeg

D7FBEC87-EAB6-4A0A-B514-533CCD1C44BF.jpeg

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9 hours ago, griteater said:

Looking out in the long range, after this period of +PNA / Western North America ridging, here's a possible path that may give us or the mid-atlantic another storm threat...

1. Western ridge retrogrades west to the west coast or far east Pacific

2. One or 2 storms eject out of the SW on a track from northern NM to NYC in the Dec 12-15 timeframe.  Ideally, the last system along this track would wind up strongly over the Northeast (with some Scandinavia > Greenland ridging kicking in).  Cold air fills in behind.

3. Follow-on system would then kick out of the southern plains into colder air over the SE/mid-Atlantic in the Dec 15-18 timeframe.

4. Post Dec 18, it looks like we may warm up with negative height anomalies settling into Alaska

I agree with this and expect a flip back the first half of January :D

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For Monday, to get anything more than light precip, it looks like the shortwave diving south out of MN needs to phase with the one tracking east out of Texas (this is all before the 3rd wave drops south out of the Great Lakes).  The GFS/NAM/RGEM aren't phasing these first 2 waves.  The Euro/CMC/UKMet/GFS Para/NAVGEM are phasing them.  

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1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

RDU to Greensboro little jackpot there. Nice.

It must be hiding from NWS.

Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 48.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 27.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 51.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 31.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 57.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 34.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 58.

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1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said:

And just like that, this GFS run crushes our hopes.  It looked nice on paper though.

Meh.... let's see what the Euro has to say.

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10 hours ago, jburns said:

It must be hiding from NWS.

Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 29.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 48.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 27.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 51.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 31.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 57.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 34.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 58.

NWS took rain chances completely out of my forecast in Winston and took my 50% chance of snow showers out of my Stuart VA forecast at the farm.  Says sunny on Monday now.  Next!

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19 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

NWS took rain chances completely out of my forecast in Winston and took my 50% chance of snow showers out of my Stuart VA forecast at the farm.  Says sunny on Monday now.  Next!

They removed it from the forecast, but GSP has a pretty good discussion about it this morning. The 12z suite today will be telling. If today's trends are not in our favor, it may be time to let this one go.

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It looks like this is going to be the second time that the GFS is more correct with respect to being less phase happy compared to the Euro and CMC.  It never bought the idea of phasing the waves dropping down from the northern stream.  It was also more correct with the previous storm that cut to the eastern Lakes and hit northern Ohio.

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

It looks like this is going to be the second time that the GFS is more correct with respect to being less phase happy compared to the Euro and CMC.  It never bought the idea of phasing the waves dropping down from the northern stream.  It was also more correct with the previous storm that cut to the eastern Lakes and hit northern Ohio.

The GFS has been impressive for the past year with modeling the mid range and storms. 

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6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

18Z runs pulled a Lee Corso. 

After that it is a cutter and warmth.

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On 12/5/2020 at 11:57 AM, kvegas-wx said:

Off topic, but anyone heard from Mack since he moved to IA and should already have at least 2 good snows under his belt? 

Yeah, he's over on the other forum.

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The long-range GFS doesn't look bad for Christmas week.  Showing some above normal temps here and there but nothing crazy...  Looks like a surge of cold air toward 12/21-12/23 time period.

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30 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The long-range GFS doesn't look bad for Christmas week.  Showing some above normal temps here and there but nothing crazy...  Looks like a surge of cold air toward 12/21-12/23 time period.

Yeah, I see a somewhat colder pattern re-emerging after this warmer spurt coming up.

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On 12/6/2020 at 11:50 AM, BooneWX said:

If anyone is getting golf clubs for Christmas, you’ll really love the temp outlook for the holiday. 

I booked a late morning tee time for this Thursday.   I’m trying to use reverse psychology in Old Man Winter.

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