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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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6z NAM is even cooler... Our area would be the coolest place east of the Mississippi, Eastern Canada included. 

namconus_T2m_seus_38.png

 

 

A 1031 High over New York State and a Low off the coast, would be great, in January

namconus_ref_frzn_eus_43.png

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3 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I love it!

Same here. 3 days in a row of highs in the low 70's in June with at least 3 more to come before the big warm up starts.

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Current RAH forecast here has a chance of showers/storms every day through next Tuesday. Going to get muggy again.

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1 hour ago, Solak said:

I guess this is good news?

RAH this morning:

Nothing Earth shattering in the extended forecast,

Hot, humid and hazy days of fall, winter, spring, summer in the south :(   

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16 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Actually, it’s been nice and no big or sustained heat in sight. low dewpoints now 

 

 

 

IMBY it's been 87 or above with elevated dp's 15 days this month. Tomorrow will start another stretch of the same  ;) 

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Well the low pressure system currently drifting through the southeast has trended further east across most models and now appears to be heading for the SC coast. Also, models are now showing a lot more convection at the coast which would decrease the moisture transport into the central part of the state. This means rain chances/amounts have come down significantly for the NC piedmont. Unfortunately, this was a very good shot at a widespread rain in July, something we could use. Where this was looking like a very likely shot at 2-4" amounts it's now looking more like 0.25-0.5" with some areas of enhanced rainfall (and I think some areas may see less especially NW). I am undercutting NWS discussion totals from this morning they seem to discount the CAMs but I see the same trends in the globals as well.

While I do expect most places to see rain the next few days, it looks like it's going to be on the light side. Subsidence and heavier moisture-robbing storms on the coast will keep this from being the type of widespread rain we've seen in SC today.

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30 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Well the low pressure system currently drifting through the southeast has trended further east across most models and now appears to be heading for the SC coast. Also, models are now showing a lot more convection at the coast which would decrease the moisture transport into the central part of the state. This means rain chances/amounts have come down significantly for the NC piedmont. Unfortunately, this was a very good shot at a widespread rain in July, something we could use. Where this was looking like a very likely shot at 2-4" amounts it's not looking more like 0.25-0.5" with some areas of enhanced rainfall (and I think some areas may see less especially NW). I am undercutting NWS discussion totals from this morning they seem to discount the CAMs but I see the same trends in the globals as well.

While I do expect most places to see rain the next few days, it looks like it's going to be on the light side. Subsidence and heavier moisture-robbing storms on the coast will keep this from being the type of widespread rain we've seen in SC today.

Yes sir down to less than .5"  for my back yard.

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15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Looks rather dry from triangle north and west today/tomorrow. Not sure everyone will even see rain. During this “wet” period 

We had one downpour on this side of Raleigh yesterday and that was it. The models were backing off earlier this week but yeah another bust.

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On 7/8/2020 at 8:10 AM, eyewall said:

We had one downpour on this side of Raleigh yesterday and that was it. The models were backing off earlier this week but yeah another bust.

I got 0.10" out of this "wet" period.  Just missed another nice cell yards, which could have been a good half-incher.  Now staring down the barrel of a death ridge.  July could be hard on the garden.

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Looks like, in addition to being brutally hot, models have dried out significantly this week, decreasing our chances at any afternoon relief. Yesterday and today have been unbearably hot, the type of heat that you just can’t be outside in. 

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3 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Mid 90s as far as the eye can see. Anyone else ready for Fall?

yes!

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Can somebody provide a little hope here?  Anything showing a short range trend of less than 88° and 88% humidity would be acceptable.  I'm headed off to research when the avg summer hi temps start dropping.  I think it might be in the next couple of weeks, thank God.  At least my annual "leaves off the trees" fall countdown is now down to 13 weeks.  Fall will not be denied this year!

Edit - August 1st hi/lo is 88/68 for the triad.  Daily averages start dropping August 2nd.  By August 30th the hi/lo is 83/63.  

Bring on September!

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Looks like tropical trouble is on the way. The wave moving off Africa is shown getting close to Florida on the Euro day 10 and has been showing up for a few days. 

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1 hour ago, wncsnow said:

Looks like tropical trouble is on the way. The wave moving off Africa is shown getting close to Florida on the Euro day 10 and has been showing up for a few days. 

With the way 2020 has been, I expect plenty of tropical trouble. The environment is favorable, too.

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Wonderful:

It`s looking increasingly likely central NC will remain under the
stronger influence of subtropical ridging, which will keep the
majority of upper impulses north and west of the area. So what look
like a fairly wet and active a few days ago, is now looking more
like a typical summer day, with the Piedmont trough and strong
daytime heating providing the focus for isolated to scattered
convection.

Cannot rule an isolated severe storm, mainly near the VA border
where models show a band of enhanced shear of 25 kts.

One negative aspect of the lower rain chances, is that it will be
hotter, with afternoon highs back in the lower to mid 90s and heat
indices back in the 102 to 105 across the central Piedmont,
Sandhills and coastal plain counties. Lows in the lower to mid 70s.

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