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jburns

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

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3 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

Better enjoy it now! You won't get any come June!

The most truth ever spoken here.  I predict a cold and rainy spring transitioning to a very nice May followed by 2 months of dry, followed by an August and September where it rains every weekend.

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1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

The most truth ever spoken here.  I predict a cold and rainy spring transitioning to a very nice May followed by 2 months of dry, followed by an August and September where it rains every weekend.

with temps in the Triple digits, w/ nearly 100% Humidity & Dews..

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8 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

The most truth ever spoken here.  I predict a cold and rainy spring transitioning to a very nice May followed by 2 months of dry, followed by an August and September where it rains every weekend.

Hate to be that bad guy.

But azaleas are starting to bloom here around Orlando. Some varieties of redbud trees .Running out of time I'm afraid for y'all. 

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23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Nobody told me how good the 12z GFS was! Snow on snow here! The best run I’ve seen since Feb 2014

Something must of changed drastically because the meteorologist on WYFF a couple of days ago were talking a few degrees above normal for the next couple of weeks.

Now their saying we need to keep an eye on the same time period,

With cold air near by & moisture staying plentiful.

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18 minutes ago, Billypg70 said:

Something must of changed drastically because the meteorologist on WYFF a couple of days ago were talking a few degrees above normal for the next couple of weeks.

Now their saying we need to keep an eye on the same time period,

With cold air near by & moisture staying plentiful.

There’s really a lot of chances and close calls starting this Monday, right thru mid Feb!! If most don’t see flakes, I would be shocked! CJ on 4, is dying to hype up a snowstorm since John is gone! Hopefully he gets to soon! I’m a Fox Carolina morning meteorologist kind of person!:devilsmiley:

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I wouldn’t overlook the system coming next Thursday. The shortwave takes a nice track; it just gets sheared apart and just loses its integrity. Otherwise, it’s heading into a nice modeled air mass. If future runs begin to maintain the shortwave a bit further, Thursday gets more interesting.

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

There’s really a lot of chances and close calls starting this Monday, right thru mid Feb!! If most don’t see flakes, I would be shocked! CJ on 4, is dying to hype up a snowstorm since John is gone! Hopefully he gets to soon! I’m a Fox Carolina morning meteorologist kind of person!:devilsmiley:

I have no idea why????

NP

Yes CJ is just dying to hype a winter storm.

Two things you can count on in the western Carolinas TV market.

1 CJ giveth the SNOW

2 KK taketh it away...

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4 minutes ago, Billypg70 said:

I have no idea why????

NP

Yes CJ is just dying to hype a winter storm.

Two things you can count on in the western Carolinas TV market.

1 CJ giveth the SNOW

2 KK taketh it away...

:lol:

Put another way; CJ  represents the weenie in us, KK  represents the humble realist!

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1 hour ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

What do the GEFS members say about snow chances?

Decent, but nothing that really sticks out as a legit threat yet. EPS looks better. But 2 weeks ago it was the opposite and we all know which ensemble won that fight. 

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German model looks interesting tonight. Image is for MBY. It sometimes will foreshadow a good euro run.

71AF5A5E-1433-4C33-A273-7DAECA4E4CA9.jpeg

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8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

ICON does look interesting.  A coastal and not an apps runner

 

Going to be super nitpicky and say the western shield would probably be much more expansive. Big time snow track for western portions of the area with a low track over RIC. 

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Thursday definitely has the potential to be a meat and potatoes, flat, light to moderate snow event. CMC solution is pretty tame and reasonable given the pattern. That other models don’t show a big snow i think is more indicative of how noisy/unpredictable to field of shortwaves is coming in after that. Short wave interaction is what could kill this opportunity and I think we’ll see inconsistency for one more run cycle or two before we know for certain this is worth keeping track of.

 

The storm next weekend will be interesting, although unless something In the mid levels/high arrangement changes I don’t think the cold air will be robust enough for anything outside of a Acela corridor snow. Would love to be wrong though!

 

 

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1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

Not bad. I believe this is what @ILMRoss mentioned 

06E13E5C-62E0-46DB-B9A6-97A483721264.png

That would be Beautiful for me but even being inside a week it seems like fantasy. And I don't think I remember a GEM snowfall ever coming to fruition. 

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Just can't seem to get that southern track going like was predicted but when it does stay to our south and east the cold air we need to get snow instead of rain doesn't hang out close enough by.  I'm still hoping that Fab February and March saves us.  Next weekend doesn't look bad but like yesterday's storm we were 36 with rain, what a nice snow that would have been. 

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yes please.....
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_55.thumb.png.726f855caf1d9d4d6effdf348c6fed79.png
(I will take that 6" thumper)

Feb. 8th huh...

That storm has been on track since it was d15 (even a few EURO ensembles have been flinging it around), highly ominous date too...

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

(I will take that 6" thumper)

Feb. 8th huh...

That storm has been on track since it was d15 (even a few EURO ensembles have been flinging it around), highly ominous date too...

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Yeah it will bounce around a lot I am sure.....its so far out....I think in a pattern like this that the models have trouble with all the waves....if I get a good hit here chances are it will be poorly modeled till 3-5 days out....that is typically how it happens, its very rare for a system that gives us snow in eastern NC to lock in and hold a hit in the models five or more days out.

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Yeah it will bounce around a lot I am sure.....its so far out....I think in a pattern like this that the models have trouble with all the waves....if I get a good hit here chances are it will be poorly modeled till 3-5 days out....that is typically how it happens, its very rare for a system that gives us snow in eastern NC to lock in and hold a hit in the models five or more days out.
Possible SSW event on the 2nd, hopefully we get the main TPV cold blob

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1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

(I will take that 6" thumper)

Feb. 8th huh...

That storm has been on track since it was d15 (even a few EURO ensembles have been flinging it around), highly ominous date too...

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Prepare yourself for :weenie: words like: redux or phrases like: it will correct back south.  They're coming in the next couple days

 

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