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January 2020 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Ya' Euro is a lot more wound up and W than any other model but lets see how they all trend the next 48 hours.  If Euro stays outlier I won't be as concerned.  Still some decent cold to work with (does it "press"? )but I can't handle another sleet fest, although my woods are melted out front yard is still a glacier.  That Euro depiction would torch the mid-levels, again.

I’ll take a sleet fest at this point. Tired of the rain. This looks like some fun early Saturday but if gets washed away...annoying again. 

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25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd still take that run....some taint, but good thump first. I just want everything covered again with several inches and then work from there when the good pattern sets in.

Yeah, that’s some Barney colored type cold coming after this system. Would be nice to lay some snow down for that. 

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s Monday . The storm is Saturday into Sunday and people are calling rain /snow/ mix lines and worrying. It’s coming 

Of course there's plenty of time to adjust but I think people can't help but take this season's trends into account when considering what can go wrong as far as snow chances are concerned.  If models show a 990mb primary cutting into the lakes it will not exactly fill me with snow confidence.  No matter what, we definitely don't want to see any weakening of the cold to our N.

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I would think the dynamics argue for a stronger primary this weekend, however, that doesn't necessarily correlate to flooding of warmer air...still plenty of discrepancies regarding the exact track and that may make the ultimate difference. All in all this is looking like a rather dynamic and intense storm with a wide range of impacts. One of the more concerning issues may be how H7 evolves and tracks.  

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25 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Have at it.  I'm with Scooter, I'm done with primaries shooting 1000mi W of us and we are left to the whims of taint lines

Meh, it's gonna get cold and I'd rather not have bare ground for it. Euro is still close to warning snowfall here and that's fine with me. I have never been on the "all snow" train with this event. I've said it looks like a pretty typical SWFE from days ago so my expectations have never exceeded that.

That said, I agree I'd like the primary toned down a bit...that would make the snowfall more enhanced here and last longer. Euro is definitely the most amped on the primary, but other guidance isn't that far off.

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5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I would not call a few inches a "thump".  6"+ min before a changeover is a thump in my books.

Yeah... the euro doesn’t get us 6” but the gfs does” so I guess a blend is 3-6”?.

Either way, long way to go. And the seasonal trend has been to pull the rug last minute, so I would not be surprised at all if the euro and other models are too amped with the primary. That seems entirely plausible to me

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Meh, it's gonna get cold and I'd rather not have bare ground for it. Euro is still close to warning snowfall here and that's fine with me. I have never been on the "all snow" train with this event. I've said it looks like a pretty typical SWFE from days ago so my expectations have never exceeded that.

That said, I agree I'd like the primary toned down a bit...that would make the snowfall more enhanced here and last longer. Euro is definitely the most amped on the primary, but other guidance isn't that far off.

Yup, get away from the coast, and all bets are off.  You know the drill here.  It is only Monday, so I am by no means throwing in the towel on anything meaningful here, I'm just not optimistic at all.  Seasonal tenor has flipped 180 from early December and until I see solutions to be optimistic about, I fall back to recent ones for what can occur.

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah... the euro doesn’t get us 6” but the gfs does” so I guess a blend is 3-6”?.

Either way, long way to go. And the seasonal trend has been to pull the rug last minute, so I would not be surprised at all if the euro and other models are too amped with the primary. That seems entirely plausible to me

Where were you seeing 6" on the GFS?  That was well N and W of us.

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7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro looks interesting for mid next week. 

Ensembles are hinting at it too...a bit too far east at the moment, but watchable.

 

The natural instinct is going to be for people to be pessimistic if this weekend turns into an ugly system.....but I'm pretty confident there are going to be a lot of potential storm threats in the 2 weeks after that....it's a really good pattern setting up. This weekend's threat is really before that happens. It's right as the first western ridge is trying to build.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles are hinting at it too...a bit too far east at the moment, but watchable.

 

The natural instinct is going to be for people to be pessimistic if this weekend turns into an ugly system.....but I'm pretty confident there are going to be a lot of potential storm threats in the 2 weeks after that....it's a really good pattern setting up. This weekend's threat is really before that happens. It's right as the first western ridge is trying to build.

Wasn't around the 20th time frame that most were targeting as the start?

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles are hinting at it too...a bit too far east at the moment, but watchable.

 

The natural instinct is going to be for people to be pessimistic if this weekend turns into an ugly system.....but I'm pretty confident there are going to be a lot of potential storm threats in the 2 weeks after that....it's a really good pattern setting up. This weekend's threat is really before that happens. It's right as the first western ridge is trying to build.

It’s the type of pattern where mid range is too offshore but then we get the NW ticks inside D5. 

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Yeah the gfs wasn’t as good as I thoughT... must have been looking at 6z because I figured even lobbing off non snow it was still close to half a foot... not the case at 12z though.

Well see what happens.... for the past month... we’ve had basically nada here... so as far as this weekend is concerned, a net gain is welcome. It doesn’t look summery, so mine as well snow 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles are hinting at it too...a bit too far east at the moment, but watchable.

 

The natural instinct is going to be for people to be pessimistic if this weekend turns into an ugly system.....but I'm pretty confident there are going to be a lot of potential storm threats in the 2 weeks after that....it's a really good pattern setting up.

Been a signal for a while now that eventually the Pacific was going to begin changing and we'll eventually get higher heights into the PNA region...and in an area which would lead to favorable downstream developments...couple this with the hints of ridging still in AK and we open up the flood gates for much colder air masses and a stormy pattern. Conditions for cyclogenesis would finally become more favorable much farther south and east instead of north and west. 

Still just a question of when these changes occur though...the signal is very strong but the ball is slowly starting to roll 

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The Thursday system is trending in the guidance.  The weekend one isn't.  It's weakening...  

Since neither are relayed on board the "instinct" to count chickens in either case has been clucking, too. 

Either system could still become dominant in a flat flow high velocity canvas...  Both could end up nothing. Just sayn'  

I agree that the extended looks better ... as far as extendes can.  The HC is finally looking more seasonal, and with the R-wave repositioning going on... the relaxation of both  is opening a potential era where meridian flow structures can dig unimpeded more readily.  We see that feed-back right away in how we end up with that wondering west Atlantic weirdness out there - but though it is silly to argue any solution for D9/10... I do think that result on this Euro run is really more a reflection of changes rather than a real system.  Though it wouldn't shock if over the next 2 to 3 days, we 'fill that in' so to speak.     

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47 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’ll take a sleet fest at this point. Tired of the rain. This looks like some fun early Saturday but if gets washed away...annoying again. 

This....Just walked outside to misery mist falling, I am about ready to move on to spring(probably more misery mist)....Sunday was amazing. On the other hand, we need a harsh winter soon or we will be dealing with EEE before we know it....

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