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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll take what the gfs is showing. Improved imo. Low in central Tn with some cold/CAD is usually a pretty good setup.

I would prefer a little more stuff a little more south, just to include Central VA. Y’all up there got your frozen...

Edit: haven’t studied the lunch run quite well... will look more in depth after luncheon.

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NS is tricky here. There's no way to pin down transient confluence. I can easily see how this can be a great snow event, a major mixed event, or a heartbreaking all rain event. Hurry up and wait is our catchphrase for the next week. 
How often do we get big winter events on day 1 of the pattern change lol
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Keep the southern wave train running with that shift in the high latitudes and you’re bound to see some frozen down the line. I am really really liking the setup for February if this shakes out close to what is being progged. Even down here for that matter.

Any blocking in the NA is icing to lock in the freezer. We know what happens when cold is around and wave lengths shorten. Good stuff in LR ensemble land.


.

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Get something close to this within 6 days range and many would be happy. Certainly a consistent and strong signal at this range on the GEFS. Gonna get busy here soon:

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_47.png

gfs-ens_T850aMean_us_9.png

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_53.png

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Still think jan 20-24 aka the follow up to this pattern change is the period that will probably produce. Next weekend is being rushed imo:

 

gfs-ens_mslpa_us_51.png

Ninja'd by @Ji

 Could an argument be made that the pattern change began when the mid Atlantic got some snow a couple of days ago?

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Getting something close to this within 6 days range and many would be happy. Certainly a consistent signal at this range on the GEFS. Gonna get busy here soon:

 

 

 

Here's the member spread for that period. It's hard to capture in a single panel with timing differences but there's 5-6 legit snowstorms centered around the 23rd. Good signal for long range. 

 

JYwighk.jpg

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Sorry this is kinda old news but I was busy trying to explain habeas corpus to teenagers... 

last nights EPS towards the end was moving towards the look we want to get snow in a -EPO+NAO regime.  The look before that for a few days with a huge PNA/EPO ridge is a dry look.  A huge full lat western ridge overwhelms the pattern and pushes the trough axis too far east for anything to turn the corner usually.  What we want is this look...This is the composite of 13 warning level snowfalls for at least a portion of our region.

EPOsnows.png.22be15f9bcb7405bcb4f328c9b41ef59.png

We want the epo ridge building over the top compressing the flow over the CONUS and and an elongated positively tilted trough SW to NE.  This allows enough return flow in the SE to get waves up the east coast.  Get enough STJ and it can be a really good pattern.  Too much SE ridge and it can be frustrating but assuming the EPO ridge flattens the flow enough it works.  

The EPS was moving towards that look at the end.  

EPS.thumb.PNG.2069ffb833d49a2ea92d754800bf267a.PNG

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I am sure it will shock everyone that JB Is on board for the flip.  I actually enjoyed his videos today where he discussed the similarities to 1978, the MJO moving to more favorable phases, and an interesting discussion about the recent deluge of rain in Israel like 1978.

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The best news is those really awful January composites I posted are pretty much out the window.  I said about a week ago that if we got to January 15th or so and couldnt see the "other side" we would be in trouble because it would be highly likely that would mean enough of January was consumed by that pattern to make the month fall within that analog set.  But its obvious now the anomalous  central Pac ridge will only last a week or so and then begin to shift into an EPO ridge.  It's only the 10th and the other side is clear and moving closer in time.   That makes it very likely the January pattern will not match the set that went on to be really awful winters.  We seem to have dodged that bullet.  

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30 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Some of these are snow on snow. Notable uptick in big solutions d8-15

7RLPIFT.jpg

 

Meh! :P

But seriously, nice signal there for sure.  Definitely an uptick in the amounts, especially what appear to be big solutions (and I know, taking snow maps with a huge grain of salt and all that).  I'm glad the GEFS is continuing to show that still today.  And yeah, that's all in the latter part of the period of the 384-h.

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Looks like a bit of improvement on next Friday/Sat threat per Euro. Still way out there at day 8. Day 8 transfer to ne bomb probably will set up a day 10 shot for us ..if we can get some energy diving behind it . Tracking next week looks fun to say the least . Euro is busy with wave after wave through the end and beyond....not boring at all .  1 is bound to get us flush :weenie:

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Also a coupled PNA/EPO ridge.

I like where things are heading. Move gfs through time and the higher latitudes start to look in our favor. Combine that with a PNA that goes positive and a favorable Atlantic, I’ll take our chances late Jan-feb to score 1-2 solid events

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill suddenly both the gfs and euro are showing a lot of red up top in the not so distant future. Could a NAM flip sneak up on us...

Yea man, it's no doubt an eyebrow raiser. NAO flips are always difficult to predict in advance on models. Maybe it sneaks up on us. This isn't the same type of pattern as 2015 if that's the case. Even if a real -NAO doesn't show up there isn't a massive rotating TPV  like there was in Feb 2015. This is like a muted 2015 but in a good way. We'll see how things shake out but at the very least we can safely say that our best chance of winter wx of the season is on tap d8-15. 

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill suddenly both the gfs and euro are showing a lot of red up top in the not so distant future. Could a NAM flip sneak up on us...

CFS basically locks in the -EPO pattern for 4 weeks. Not far off from the latest weeklies (I like the CFS better for obvious reasons lol). Let assume we get a persistent -EPO pattern with oscillations in the AO and PNA space for an entire month... It could turn into a memorable period. Maybe not for classic coastals but an active wintry period with lots of progressive/fast movers. I'm getting kinda stoked honestly. I felt pretty good last week that the disaster -PNA pattern would release its grip this month and things would get better. Seems to be working out so far. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The best news is those really awful January composites I posted are pretty much out the window.  I said about a week ago that if we got to January 15th or so and couldnt see the "other side" we would be in trouble because it would be highly likely that would mean enough of January was consumed by that pattern to make the month fall within that analog set.  But its obvious now the anomalous  central Pac ridge will only last a week or so and then begin to shift into an EPO ridge.  It's only the 10th and the other side is clear and moving closer in time.   That makes it very likely the January pattern will not match the set that went on to be really awful winters.  We seem to have dodged that bullet.  

It’s funny because we were saying last week that the Pac ridge progressing into the EPO domain was the least likely way out the abyss (as compared to regressing or getting help from Atlantic) but all indications are that this may be the outcome.  

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I have never seen that before on a LR weeklies chart....ever.

7 day MSLP panel shows HP max over Maine and also sprawling HP in the upper MW so it's actually a 4 week lead CAD sig. LOL. I've never seen it either. All in though. 

cfs-avg_mslpaMean_us_4.png

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May as well discuss the h5 panel too. There's almost a -AO going and no doubt confluence to our north and the door is open in the west for STJ to undercut the PNA/EPO ridge. This is a ripe panel for winter wx here. 

cfs-avg_z500aMean_nhem_4.png

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

CFS basically locks in the -EPO pattern for 4 weeks. Not far off from the latest weeklies (I like the CFS better for obvious reasons lol). Let assume we get a persistent -EPO pattern with oscillations in the AO and PNA space for an entire month... It could turn into a memorable period. Maybe not for classic coastals but an active wintry period with lots of progressive/fast movers. I'm getting kinda stoked honestly. I felt pretty good last week that the disaster -PNA pattern would release its grip this month and things would get better. Seems to be working out so far. 

Great call. I was pessimistic when I saw that huge pac ridge of doom on the guidance. That can be a season destroyer when it locks in but now it seems it was just a transient feature as the mjo traverses the MC. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Great call. I was pessimistic when I saw that huge pac ridge of doom on the guidance. That can be a season destroyer when it locks in but now it seems it was just a transient feature as the mjo traverses the MC. 

I took some liberties but it's still a good split flow pattern... heh

UQznFNn.jpg

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14 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

It’s funny because we were saying last week that the Pac ridge progressing into the EPO domain was the least likely way out the abyss (as compared to regressing or getting help from Atlantic) but all indications are that this may be the outcome.  

It was...of the handful of times that pattern flipped it was mostly from retrogression not progression. However, those composites were mostly years the pac locked in longer than a week so it could be more common when the pac ridge is transient. 

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EPS just made a notable shift towards the possibility of a -AO/NAO. lol. I'll post a panel once the run is done. Teaser.... it's weeniesh

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