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January 2020 Mid/Long Term Discussion


nj2va
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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just havin fun. I know u know. Very abrupt stuff going on compared to what we wete looking at 7-10 days ago. There's not a computer or person who knows how all this is going to shake out. Could be epic or could be abject failure. The good thing is we can just about rule out abject failure as a lock. Fun times figuring this out. Like most of everything I see

 I knew you were kidding. Im not totally shocked to see the suddenly flip up top. It fits the analogs that did turn better. It also fits phase 7. The same processes that are helping progress the pac ridge also pressure the TPV.  So it makes sense. Just highlights the nwp can’t resolve the HL past about day 10 with any accuracy. 

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Sign me up for the CMC . H5 is a good bit different then the Gfs for Sat . Closes off near our latitude and almost gets us in the transfer wraparound lol

Yep. The transfer part is lol but I like the fact it comes in Friday evening fast and hard. The overrunning part is a real nice thump.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

12z gefs looks half decent next weekend. Majority have some sort of front end thump. Acceptable/good out numbers bad/total fail. 3-4 big frozen events this run

The snow in my yard that just melted was from a storm most guidance had as a cutter at day 5. Just pointing that out for those that are making definitive decisions for next weekend based on any one run right now. (Not talking about you). The trend towards more ridging near Hudson Bay is the best chance to turn this into a winter event.  

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The snow in my yard that just melted was from a storm most guidance had as a cutter at day 5. Just pointing that out for those that are making definitive decisions for next weekend based on any one run right now. (Not talking about you). The trend towards more ridging near Hudson Bay is the best chance to turn this into a winter event.  

Yea, we're 2 synoptic events away from that window. No chance models have anything nailed down. Gut says mixed event likely as it's a bread and butter type of setup and we have a lot of experience with these kinds of deals. If it breaks wrong and is all rain then disappointment won't last long me thinks

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10 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

What's a HA event?

Heather Archambault. Science behind big east coast storms that happen between phase changes of the NAO. Ours usually happen when the NAO flips neg to pos. One of the reasons it gets warm after big coastals because the NAO relaxes and cold retreats. 

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This look right here showes up A LOT as a precursor to  mid atlantic snows when I did my examination of each one. A strong ridge near Baffin with ridge bridge fading to a ridge west of the Hudson was a pretty common snow look. 

3C0F963E-928F-4D42-87B4-1793967E5B31.thumb.png.7ee365193190f0143b703c07175546db.png

After that @showmethesnowpointed this out and gefs continues to show the jet undercutting the western ridge which is a much better look that a full latitude ridge. 

A81CAD4C-A071-4C69-94A1-B26BF9B46CAE.thumb.png.1b5c01befb0be573bb7e4f011eea080b.png

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39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The snow in my yard that just melted was from a storm most guidance had as a cutter at day 5. Just pointing that out for those that are making definitive decisions for next weekend based on any one run right now. (Not talking about you). The trend towards more ridging near Hudson Bay is the best chance to turn this into a winter event.  

Exactly. Anybody looking past next weekend to something “better” after is missing out (and evidently not very experienced)

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I have an idea....maybe we could start an American Weather forum Mid Atlantic winter storm index for 0-5 days out and 6 days or more out. It would make it easier to know what our more experienced forum members think of the pattern potential.  “0” for torch and “10” for something that would make even Ji happy.  For example, currently it would be “0” for the next 5 days.

 

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28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If it wasn't for stupid dumb P12 it would be unanimous 2"+ on all members at DCA. I want to kick P12 right in the pill box. For those with digital snow fetishes... might want to view this post in private

lC6z0l6.png

This is the weenies snow mean for a run when all the snow is week 2. 

A4B3C2DA-7DCB-4BF5-A757-3D63EE91169E.thumb.png.94066da56c57586d15137292412f56d3.png

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Whoever is "writing off" the weekend event after that one run of the GFS is crazy. Given a ~1045mb high in place over Quebec prior to the system making it, the surface CAD wedge will be very difficult to erode, even if the storm cut. Propensity for these modeled storm at lead is to be over amplified with increment adjustments in the short term. Given the H5 evolution, a more west-east trajectory is possible for any low that would develop (On the current look. That could easily change). The key takeaway is the prior confluence signature to our north remaining steady, leading to strong Canadian HP to slide overhead before the approach of any system to the west. I actually didn't mind that run. I'll be in Disney starting Wednesday, so I'll take my one front and 80+ temps, but I'll try to follow along this week. 

 

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Whoever is "writing off" the weekend event after that one run of the GFS is crazy. Given a ~1045mb high in place over Quebec prior to the system making it, the surface CAD wedge will be very difficult to erode, even if the storm cut. Propensity for these modeled storm at lead is to be over amplified with increment adjustments in the short term. Given the H5 evolution, a more west-east trajectory is possible for any low that would develop (On the current look. That could easily change). The key takeaway is the prior confluence signature to our north remaining steady, leading to strong Canadian HP to slide overhead before the approach of any system to the west. I actually didn't mind that run. I'll be in Disney starting Wednesday, so I'll take my one front and 80+ temps, but I'll try to follow along this week. 

 

Yeah, kind of confused myself with some that are already dismissing this threat and looking beyond it. I like the look and it is one where we can typically score 2-4, 3-6 through the region before a flip to other frozen and/or rain. Not to mention I am leaning heavily on seeing the primary end up tracking farther S and E compared to what it is spitting out now. Could very well be a thump to drizzle as we see the low transfer over top to the coast.

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In my experience, CAD is generally undermodeled, especially at long leads.  If you go back to the ice storm that happened in western MD a few weeks back, the exact same thing happened out there — LR models underplayed the cold hanging on and as the storm got into the short range, the frozen kept hanging on longer & longer on the models.  Obviously each setup is different but always best to look at climo & model “bias” when analyzing an OP run 160H+ out.

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4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Yeah, kind of confused myself with some that are already dismissing this threat and looking beyond it. I like the look and it is one where we can typically score 2-4, 3-6 through the region before a flip to other frozen and/or rain. Not to mention I am leaning heavily on seeing the primary end up tracking farther S and E compared to what it is spitting out now. Could very well be a thump to drizzle as we see the low transfer over top to the coast.

We’ve got a great high position to the ne. I’m like you. It’s the low position that I’m watching. Want it at least in western ky southern Indiana. Need a good shot at heavy precip early.

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Just now, nj2va said:

In my experience, CAD is generally undermodeled, especially at long leads.  If you go back to the ice storm that happened in western MD a few weeks back, the exact same thing happened out there — LR models underplayed the cold hanging on and as the storm got into the short range, the frozen kept hanging on longer & longer on the models.  Obviously each setup is different but always best to look at climo & model “bias” when analyzing an OP run 160H+ out.

It is absolutely under modeled

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