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NYCSNOWMAN2020

WINTER 2019/2020 BANTER

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22 hours ago, jm1220 said:

What got me into weather was the Blizzard of 1996. I’m sure that and any other severe weather event collapsed before it got to the south shore where I grew up.

labor day 98 hit the whole island

980907.gif

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5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

labor day 98 hit the whole island

980907.gif

terrifying storm. I was buying bait at a waterfront tackle shop near the Arthur Kill. I believe it was a derecho? Rare for around here.....

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13 hours ago, rclab said:

Sad but so true. I remember the sheep's head which the bay was named for and party boating for whiting and Ling during the cold season. My father used to pull up good sized porgies, flounder and blue claw crab off the narrows, shore road sea wall between the 4th and 14th avenues. Times long gone. No need for restrictions. Heaven help you if you get caught today with a short sized fluke, even though you can find even smaller specimens at the local markets after the trawlers drop their ill gotten loads. ( the trawlers, that I feel are responsible, still have no size restrictions.) As always .....

trawlers actually do have restrictions these days, on mesh sizes as well as seasons and size limits. None of which helps much as the damage is done. went out in the late fall and could find nothing but horned dogfish from Rockaway point to the doughnut to the Shrewsbury Rocks. Thick. Can't keep them, as its a shark...I catch more fish in my local creek and bigger ones too, than you can catch in the bay these days.

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14 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

We never had 4 or 5 in row like this year. Managed at least 15-20" most winters in the 80s. We came close to back to back under 10" winters from 96-98

88, 89, 90, 91, 92......97,98, 99, 2000, that's 8 years of bum winters right there, even if 92 and 2000 had some late bonus stuff ( and 2000's big event was the 2000-01 winter ). You can throw in 80, 81, 84, 85, and 86,  if you don't go in succession, and that's another 5 years of little snow. 13 years of not much to write home about. An incredible run. If I add in the 70's...you get the point. In fact, 93 and 95 had only one serious event each; without 94 and 96 the 90's are fairly putrid. Did not use a snowblower from 97-2000. It can and will happen again, and ultimately will be the default winter in these parts if scientists are correct. 

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6 hours ago, Rjay said:

Odd.  I saw geese fly due east today.  Hmmm.

I think your mind thought they were flying East but in fact they weren’t even there you were hallucinating.

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Our winters are very variable of course when it comes to snow...The decades though do tend to still average not to far from normal. Decadal snowfall from the 70's thru now range from an avg. of 26.2" in the 80's to 31.6" in the 2000's. The exception of course is the 2010's which have averaged 39.5" , not including this year. These are my SI figures...your results may vary.:snowwindow:

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1 hour ago, doncat said:

Our winters are very variable of course when it comes to snow...The decades though do tend to still average not to far from normal. Decadal snowfall from the 70's thru now range from an avg. of 26.2" in the 80's to 31.6" in the 2000's. The exception of course is the 2010's which have averaged 39.5" , not including this year. These are my SI figures...your results may vary.:snowwindow:

The key is some of us measure and/or look up records while others use anecdotal evidence. 

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Joe Bastardi using the March, 1960 analog for next month I heard lmfaooo!! No shame. What’s next? March, 1993? That guy really needs to retire, it’s just sad and pathetic now. He has zero credibility, no one takes him seriously. Talk about doing a crash and burn. His forecasts have been dumpster fires for several years now
 

 

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I am still waking up during the night to see the overnight models. I am hoping for a snowstorm. 

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18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I am still waking up during the night to see the overnight models. I am hoping for a snowstorm. 

812, I feel your pain and in theory its not over yet but IMO we will try and get em again next year

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

The key is some of us measure and/or look up records while others use anecdotal evidence. 

Definitely...many times I see something posted which I know isn't correct...That's when I dig out my records.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I am still waking up during the night to see the overnight models. I am hoping for a snowstorm. 

As I sit watching the mid winter sun shine through barred windows facing my beloved postage stamp yard, I wonder. The plants I brought in, late fall, are still bravely remaining green. The incongruity of the in pot orchid sitting next to the small, still blooming and perky white poinsettia, that refuses to believe that it’s time is over. Surrounded by dependent house cats, a legacy of my wife’s love I look longingly at the muted browns and concrete grey of the back. The sunlight growing stronger, I think of a line from a difficult read I have just finished: “There’s nothing left to surrender.” As always ......

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7 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

trawlers actually do have restrictions these days, on mesh sizes as well as seasons and size limits. None of which helps much as the damage is done. went out in the late fall and could find nothing but horned dogfish from Rockaway point to the doughnut to the Shrewsbury Rocks. Thick. Can't keep them, as its a shark...I catch more fish in my local creek and bigger ones too, than you can catch in the bay these days.

I appreciate the updated info on the trawlers. I remember over 50 years ago renting a small boat and motor and going out on the bay and inlet. Youngsters fishing off the party boat piers, my friend actually got engaged on the walk bridge that crosses a portion of the bay. “Those were the days my friend, wed thought they’d never......” oh well, as always .......

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1 hour ago, rclab said:

As I sit watching the mid winter sun shine through barred windows facing my beloved postage stamp yard, I wonder. The plants I brought in, late fall, are still bravely remaining green. The incongruity of the in pot orchid sitting next to the small, still blooming and perky white poinsettia, that refuses to believe that it’s time is over. Surrounded by dependent house cats, a legacy of my wife’s love I look longingly at the muted browns and concrete grey of the back. The sunlight growing stronger, I think of a line from a difficult read I have just finished: “There’s nothing left to surrender.” As always ......

So how long did you teach lit? Ten years for me....

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1 hour ago, rclab said:

I appreciate the updated info on the trawlers. I remember over 50 years ago renting a small boat and motor and going out on the bay and inlet. Youngsters fishing off the party boat piers, my friend actually got engaged on the walk bridge that crosses a portion of the bay. “Those were the days my friend, wed thought they’d never......” oh well, as always .......

i used to throw a line with a flounder rig off the the dead end streets in Sea Bright in the early 80's, and catch enough flounder on the incoming tide to feed the family. I'd use earthworms....even if you could catch something today, you probably wouldn't be allowed to fish there...

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23 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

So how long did you teach lit? Ten years for me....

I was licensed by the board of Ed for common branches and high school, Social Studies. I taught 4 years in a private school, early 70’s. No jobs with the city near bankrupt and a soon to be family I decided to get benefits and go to work for my uncle. Sam was good to me in me for almost 45 years in the USPS. I spent over three decades in the Industrial Engineering department as a support specialist.  My love for the weather was solidified when, early on, as a carrier,  I delivered two routes in during a 1978 snowstorm in downtown Brooklyn. I left the Service to care for my wife and never regretted that decision. Now, even though the warm season is approaching, Franks words resonate loudly “ and the days grow short, I’m in the Autumn of the year. For that and this forum, a wonderful outlet, I remain grateful. As always ...

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37 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i used to throw a line with a flounder rig off the the dead end streets in Sea Bright in the early 80's, and catch enough flounder on the incoming tide to feed the family. I'd use earthworms....even if you could catch something today, you probably wouldn't be allowed to fish there...

I sometimes went off a belt parkway bridge, past Kings Plaza , can’t remember which one. I used a multiple hook rig but I was mediocre at best. I used blood worms but the damn things go for you when you try to put them on the hook. Not that I blame them. Depending on me as a fishermen would have left the family starving,  As always .....

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11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Joe Bastardi using the March, 1960 analog for next month I heard lmfaooo!! No shame. What’s next? March, 1993? That guy really needs to retire, it’s just sad and pathetic now. He has zero credibility, no one takes him seriously. Talk about doing a crash and burn. His forecasts have been dumpster fires for several years now
 

 

It should be noted that 1960 was experiencing strong blocking at this time and that blocking would continue into March at which time the blizzard took place. In contrast, the AO is at extreme positive values and may approach or reach the record set earlier this month in coming days. Unlike in 1960, the cold is far less expansive in the Northern Hemisphere. Even if a mechanism to bring it into the CONUS and then hold it there were available, which seems unlikely, one would not be dealing with the kind of widespread cold that defined March 1960 in the CONUS.

February-1960-February-2020.jpg

Here's how things progressed in 1960:

Feb-Mar-1960.jpg

None of the guidance shows cold of the expanse and magnitude shown during the second half of February, much less over a two week period.

At this point, especially with the current pattern and forecast ensembles, calls for extreme cold on a scale of March 1960 should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism. Extremes, by definition, are low probability events. When no clear variables for producing them are currently visible or available in the guidance, their absence should raise significant "red flags."

 

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JB picked March 1960 because March 1896 was not available......I picked March 1960 back in September...too bad it wont be like that...but I still think March 2020 has the biggest snowstorm of the season but that aint saying much...I would not be surprised if the storm is a March version of the early December event......

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

It should be noted that 1960 was experiencing strong blocking at this time and that blocking would continue into March at which time the blizzard took place. In contrast, the AO is at extreme positive values and may approach or reach the record set earlier this month in coming days. Unlike in 1960, the cold is far less expansive in the Northern Hemisphere. Even if a mechanism to bring it into the CONUS and then hold it there were available, which seems unlikely, one would not be dealing with the kind of widespread cold that defined March 1960 in the CONUS.

February-1960-February-2020.jpg

Here's how things progressed in 1960:

Feb-Mar-1960.jpg

None of the guidance shows cold of the expanse and magnitude shown during the second half of February, much less over a two week period.

At this point, especially with the current pattern and forecast ensembles, calls for extreme cold on a scale of March 1960 should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism. Extremes, by definition, are low probability events. When no clear variables for producing them are currently visible or available in the guidance, their absence should raise significant "red flags."

 

the ao was negative from Christmas to April that winter...there was also long stretches of neg nao that winter...he can't be serious about this...

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7 hours ago, rclab said:

I was licensed by the board of Ed for common branches and high school, Social Studies. I taught 4 years in a private school, early 70’s. No jobs with the city near bankrupt and a soon to be family I decided to get benefits and go to work for my uncle. Sam was good to me in me for almost 45 years in the USPS. I spent over three decades in the Industrial Engineering department as a support specialist.  My love for the weather was solidified when, early on, as a carrier,  I delivered two routes in during a 1978 snowstorm in downtown Brooklyn. I left the Service to care for my wife and never regretted that decision. Now, even though the warm season is approaching, Franks words resonate loudly “ and the days grow short, I’m in the Autumn of the year. For that and this forum, a wonderful outlet, I remain grateful. As always ...

An education is never wasted. I too am fast approaching the autumn years, and have dodged major bullets already.

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7 hours ago, rclab said:

I sometimes went off a belt parkway bridge, past Kings Plaza , can’t remember which one. I used a multiple hook rig but I was mediocre at best. I used blood worms but the damn things go for you when you try to put them on the hook. Not that I blame them. Depending on me as a fishermen would have left the family starving,  As always .....

You couldn't even afford to waste money on bloodworms today....I used sandworms because they were cheaper ( when I had a boat ) but in my youth I used earthworms I could dig in the backyard...

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