PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Slightly north through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice Looks like an 88% chance in North Smithfield RI, very nice to see. Glad I rescheduled my flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 18z NAM is warm aloft. Taint north of the pike already by 00z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Albany put up Watches for their zones..litchfield county included. Box next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: 18z NAM is warm aloft. Taint north of the pike already by 00z Monday. Sure is torchy at 850. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Torch at 850. Here comes the congrats PF before the last minute messenger shuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 The NAM tends to be too warm at the surface, but seems like it always does well in the upper levels when it comes to how far the warming gets....Ice! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Sneaky warm layer like 800-750. Seems like levels off at hr 57 when bigger lift comes in. It’s pretty darn cold 950-900. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 18z NAM is warm aloft. Taint north of the pike already by 00z Monday. And then crashes south by 9z. Too early for ageo? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Beware the warm tongue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: And then crashes south by 9z. Too early for ageo? Exactly, the taint would not be that long or bad at all on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Pike region h85 hits 0.7 for a period before crashing pre dawn Monday. Sort of selling a faster transit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Beware the warm tongue... I overheard some ladies saying the exact same thing... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Beware the warm tongue... Euro is definitely a rosier picture, but the GFS does highlight the potential dry slotting issues for a lot of SNE and even coastal ME. Time to put on the big boy forecaster pants. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I'm really liking the WAA thump here...also becoming a bit more impressed with the banding with round 2. I know we'll have to overcome those warm layers, but I think dynamic cooling is going to help big time and the lift in the banding is going to be pretty intense. Decided to increase from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: And then crashes south by 9z. Too early for ageo? It’s an oblong shape low so crash SE of CF will take time. Given cold layer below 900, could be some decent pelting if NAM is right. It also looks mild at the surface. I’ll toss those temps at ORH on 06z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Euro is definitely a rosier picture, but the GFS does highlight the potential dry slotting issues for a lot of SNE and even coastal ME. Time to put on the big boy forecaster pants. Hopefully stretchy pants after a delayed Thanksgiving meal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s an oblong shape low so crash SE of CF will take time. Given cold layer below 900, could be some decent pelting if NAM is right. It also looks mild at the surface. I’ll toss those temps at ORH on 06z Monday. Weymouth fatties as others melt Monday late day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I'm pretty excited...this is exciting. Unfortunately I'll miss out on the big snows at BDL b/c I'll probably stay at a hotel in Branford Sunday so I can get to work Monday but I'll be off antibiotics tomorrow so I can chillax in my hotel room sunday night watching the Pats/Bruins and drink this awesome double IPA I bought a few weeks ago I've been dying to try. WINTER!!!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm really liking the WAA thump here...also becoming a bit more impressed with the banding with round 2. I know we'll have to overcome those warm layers, but I think dynamic cooling is going to help big time and the lift in the banding is going to be pretty intense. Decided to increase from yesterday. Looks reasonable as of now Wiz. Nice work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I'm pretty excited...this is exciting. Unfortunately I'll miss out on the big snows at BDL b/c I'll probably stay at a hotel in Branford Sunday so I can get to work Monday but I'll be off antibiotics tomorrow so I can chillax in my hotel room sunday night watching the Pats/Bruins and drink this awesome double IPA I bought a few weeks ago I've been dying to try. WINTER!!!!!!!! 5 months and 2 days to 5/1/20! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Weymouth fatties as others melt Monday late day? Monday night fatties for all if NAM is right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, weathafella said: 5 months and 2 days to 5/1/20! lol that’s almost a half year away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm pretty excited...this is exciting. Unfortunately I'll miss out on the big snows at BDL b/c I'll probably stay at a hotel in Branford Sunday so I can get to work Monday but I'll be off antibiotics tomorrow so I can chillax in my hotel room sunday night watching the Pats/Bruins and drink this awesome double IPA I bought a few weeks ago I've been dying to try. WINTER!!!!!!!! Branford ....Ewwwww no winter there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Monday night fatties for all if NAM is right. Things were getting interesting Monday night on Nammy ...those VV's juiced up at hour 84 for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Things were getting interesting Monday night on Nammy ...those VV's juiced up at hour 84 for most Yeah that is a much better look in SNE for round 2 vs euro. But the NAM caveats..:... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that is a much better look in SNE for round 2 vs euro. But the NAM caveats..:... Something that comes to mind with modeling and past systems When i see rapid mid level deepening forecast i am less surprised to see a low end up closing off earlier and Slowing /Temporarily stalling Just East of Southern half of Jersey Coast and really hammering Pocano's /Catskills /E slope and bending many over in SNE I DO NOT see that rapid deepening forecast so i could still definitely see this untucking ....wether that is enough to change the forcing mechanisms enough to generate good lift east of the river Monday nite we shall see how much it untucks. IT could still be an Elongated low from off S NJ ENE to the Cape like boxing day. The elongation at least kept a Northerly drain going in much of E MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah that is a much better look in SNE for round 2 vs euro. But the NAM caveats..:... What does it show after Monday eve for Central/ northern CT? Also... I see some worrying about some of the warmth the Nam is showing..but..it is still 2-3 days out ( not in Nam's wheel house ), and..Nam can be a bit on the Warm Bias. I always remember Bernie Rayno saying... Don't get caught up in the windshield wipers effect a few days prior..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 47 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Here's what I'm thinking God I hate living near the water. Until June that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Watches up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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