• Member Statistics

    15,694
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    snowmaker
    Newest Member
    snowmaker
    Joined
40/70 Benchmark

Monday 12/2 Threat Disco

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, snowman21 said:

They may be in advisory if they think ORH is just a lolli and everyone else will get less. I think they need at least half the zone (county) to be at or above the minimum criteria in order to issue the warning, so if the northern part of the county or highest elevations are getting a foot, and everyone else is getting 6-8 then it's just an advisory. Also, the minimum thresholds are 7 inches in 12 hours or 9 inches in 24 hours, so the long duration would mean it's just an advisory level storm.

They've got the entire zone in it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, snowdazed said:

I'm deeply confused.  The local stations here in RI are talking 1-3", but the maps I'm seeing suggest a much bigger storm.

Am I missing something?

Yes  Dazed

where in RI are you ...near coast 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We've had this discussion before, I find it highly unreliable.

Yeah gotta use the 6z/12z/18z/0z runs and ignore the others.  Those are the extended version.

I mean the normal models are all over the place too.  Not surprising something sensitive and run every hour will be different.  

I think it’ll nail the WAA and SWFE stuff.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah gotta use the 6z/12z/18z/0z runs and ignore the others.  Those are the extended version.

I mean the normal models are all over the place too.  Not surprising something sensitive and run every hour will be different.  

I think it’ll nail the WAA and SWFE stuff.

They are actually making real significant improvements to that model quarter over quarter. There's always an experimental version running testing out those new features. I know recent ones include improved cloud forecasts. The latest experimental improves ptype.

It's replacing the NAM eventually, so wait until it goes out 60 hours!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

They are actually making real significant improvements to that model quarter over quarter. There's always an experimental version running testing out those new features. I know recent ones include improved cloud forecasts. The latest experimental improves ptype.

It's replacing the NAM eventually, so wait until it goes out 60 hours!

I think most of the issues why people think it’s unstable is it runs every damn hour.  If you ran the NAM or GFS every hour all day long you’d get some weird solutions from time to time, heck it happens even when run 4 times a day.  

I just think if you run any model out there right now every hour it’s going to seem to swing back and forth.  I mainly look at the 4 primary runs a day and it’s no more unstable than any other model.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

New HRRR looks much better for SNE! Enjoy this one guys.  round one 

CAFECB61-34AE-4C34-BAA3-76AC3445E69A.png

The fact there is that much discrepancy with in one hour of runs shows how useless it is at that range, unfortunately.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I think most of the issues why people think it’s unstable is it runs every damn hour.  If you ran the NAM or GFS every hour all day long you’d get some weird solutions from time to time, heck it happens even when run 4 times a day.  

I just think if you run any model out there right now every hour it’s going to seem to swing back and forth.  I mainly look at the 4 primary runs a day and it’s no more unstable than any other model.

Eventually it replaces the NAM, ARW, and NMM, and then the HREF is run with just HRRR members and you can get a true ensemble spread. It's going to be a pretty good system once we get there.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

As if hearing all the discussion turning to "round 2", 18z NAM goes ballistic colder and heavier tonight

It went off the rails tonite , foot plus N of Pike 

Kevin is throwing up on that run

13 at Rays 0 at Kevs by morning 

lets see what nammy cooks up for round 2 (this run may need to be archived )

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, moneypitmike said:

We did here in SNE.  He wants one for Maine.  :)

If i get that here folks down south won't like it.....................:lol:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ripping snow here but the sleet line is two towns over so the fun is about over. A couple inches down, would consider this a win all things considered. Have very little hope for part 2.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It went off the rails tonite , foot plus N of Pike 

Kevin is throwing up on that run

13 at Rays 0 at Kevs by morning 

lets see what nammy cooks up for round 2 (this run may need to be archived )

There’s already 2 inches in Milford Ct where both NAMS had .5 I think Kevin will be fine

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

3K NAM now has BOS over to rain at 01z.  My forecast of 4-5 will be very wrong if that is correct.

What’s your WRF have

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.