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Bob Chill

December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

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24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think what a lot of experts “mean” is that the warming isn’t going to have a major impact on the TPV. It’s confusing the way they talk about it because warning is warming and anyone can see the temps and deduce it’s warmer. But when they say a major SSWE they typically mean is it having a major impact to the troposphere. There is a lot of discussion that this current warming isn’t going to do that for various reasons that I don’t care to get into since most of its above my pay grade. 

I think another subtle difference in these discussions is the "sudden" component. A SSWE is different than a SWE irt the impacts apparently.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS more bullish on the +PNA than the GEFS, but GEFS seems to be moving that way.  Any +AO really does look quite brief as the PV sloshes back to our side of the pole.  

The pacific base state is almost the opposite of what we had to fight most of last year. Every attempt to shift seems to snap back pretty quickly. On the other side the AO/NAO seems to be variable but that’s not nearly as hostile as most of the last decade.  The next week or so is big as that is about when the signs of problems wrt the pac showed up last year.   Give me a -epo/+pna pacific base state with a variable not hostile AO/NAO for Dec-Mar and I’ll take my chances!  

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28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think another subtle difference in these discussions is the "sudden" component. A SSWE is different than a SWE irt the impacts apparently.

I’ve suddenly got a headache 

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18z gfs with the same strong closed ridge over the pole that both the 12z op and ens had.  Moves in by day 7/8....looks more robust and has staying power this run.  Would be a nice trend..

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve suddenly got a headache 

Not trying to insult anyone because the strat is complicated and there are some sharp people that know a lot about it.... but... I've read plenty of strat analysis over the years and imho we'd be better off ignoring it for the most part. The connection to the trop is too volatile and unreliable. A lot of false hope and/or unexpected outcomes. 

The SPI (strat posting index) is dead nuts reliable though cuz when the strat gets more attention than the surface we're in a close the blinds pattern nearly 100% of the time. 

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not trying to insult anyone because the strat is complicated and there are some sharp people that know a lot about it.... but... I've read plenty of strat analysis over the years and imho we'd be better off ignoring it for the most part. The connection to the trop is too volatile and unreliable. A lot of false hope and/or unexpected outcomes. 

The SPI (strat posting index) is dead nuts reliable though cuz when the strat gets more attention than the surface we're in a close the blinds pattern nearly 100% of the time. 

Not to mention that it seems equally likely that the strat can actually HURT us instead of helping - if I'm understanding him correctly, @Isotherm tags last year's much-anticipated SSW event as significantly contributing to the MJO hanging out in warm phases. 

https://www.lightinthestorm.com/page/3

Along that vein, I actually think this winter was too UNSTABLE in a number of ways. The MJO simply did not cease: constant propagation from amplified phase to phase, obviating any stable PNA or cold pattern from becoming locked in, compared to winters in which we stabilize in the colder MJO Nino phases. The negative 50mb QBO and thereafter the massive SSW only aided further to augment the incessant MJO signal.

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1 inch of snow for the northern part of the subforum on the  latest EPS mean. A little more in NE MD and northern DE. Still not much but heading in the right direction.

A2F7AF2E-9711-4C10-8931-2F2E35424870.jpeg

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^ yea...the ol' "off run " definitely keeps the door cracked open for the coastal.  Some nice hits for north to  ne Md . Sizable shift in the mean snowfall esp for eastern Pa . Still time for sizable shifts . But I won't be staying up for the 0z Eps lol

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13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Icon with some ULL snow Sunday morning across N Md fwiw .

Where do we live again?

i continue to be interested in that. With our elevation we could still get surprise coating. Of the last pathetic vort pass was able to cool the column this one has a chance. 

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32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Where do we live again?

i continue to be interested in that. With our elevation we could still get surprise coating. Of the last pathetic vort pass was able to cool the column this one has a chance. 

Gfs

 

The ull was a bit better organized as it crossed under us . A correction sw with the surface low by a decent bit ..hugging the coast more  . A couple more adjustments and some  deform action might be possible :weenie:

Dont look...but Wed NS system on its heels drops an inch 

 

 

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I know it's just an op run at range but the current Gfs h5 setup for Sunday/Mon  looks to try to repeat itself . The next  Wed ns system sets up another long lived 50/50 with sw ejecting energy.  Wouldn't it be great to have a winter long 50/50 stretch of 1 a week :weenie:

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No major changes on the overnight runs (GFS, Euro suites) just pretty much noise from the  previous. Did note that we were generally seeing a little better heights to the NW of the closed low as it was moving into the Midwest and then dropping down. May have played a part in seeing a slightly quicker solution seen on the Euro. Then again it could be nothing more then noise. Except for the possibility of a couple flakes/pellets for some initially, the WAA looks to be pretty much on life support.  Best shot at this point (given what is currently shown on the models) is the pass of the upper low through the region which is favorable particularly for the N MD/Pa line. Could see instability snow/showers with that feature as it passes through for the generally region and the northern/eastern sections could possibly get into a little wraparound/CCB action as the low departs. That will depend on the placement of the coastal low and the upper in relation to each other and whether a decent NE flow can set up in time. For those looking for a little more the best shot IMO is to see the Coastal low lag behind a little (farther south and west closer to our region) where we can see a little quicker/better interaction between it and the upper low.

We did see some improvements in regards to the possible follow up 1 1/2 to 2 days later. Seeing the NS energy/SW dropping farther west and a little deeper out of Canada. This helps to set it up a little better as it crosses through our region.

Below we have yesterdays 12Z. What we have is the trough that has reached a neutral state through W MD/Panhandle of WV. Take note of the minor height builds in front. 

12zEPS.gif.f960d6f1890638e72f977718eee16fa9.gif

 

The latest run is now showing the trough reaching a neutral state through eastern Ohio/Western W VA. Also note that we are seeing stronger height builds in front. This setup produces a trough turning neg tilt through the region opposed to the above which features a neutral. As depicted it could possibly produce a period of light snow through the region as it passes through but any impacts from coastal development would be slim to none.

00zEPS.gif.981bcb072092a00b5b832c92de31fbd0.gif

Now for those that may be looking for a little more from the above. We probably would want to see a farther west and deeper drop from this SW as it enters the central US. We also want to see greater separation between this SW and the current system we are tracking to allow better height builds in front of the trough. The objective with these two things is to see a sharper deeper trough that is going neg tilt a little quicker. This would allow for better snows as the system passes through. It could also possibly put the coastal into play for at least portions of our region. This is something to keep an eye on but it will be very dependent on what we see as far as the departing system (speed and placement).

 

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Looks like we may need to get through a few days to get any king of handle on what the LR will look like.  A lot of spread on the EPS....

AO

7LlRRqv.png

Check of the spread on the EPO...Could be +4 or could be -6....:arrowhead:

6fEQLcl.png

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06z euro came in much colder for the WAA precip.  Major icing just over the MD line...some place in southern PA went from mid 30s 00z to upper 20s.

NAM following along with slightly colder sfc temps than previous run....

Off to stuff myself...Happy Thanksgiving!

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12 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

06z euro came in much colder for the WAA precip.  Major icing just over the MD line...some place in southern PA went from mid 30s 00z to upper 20s.

NAM following along with slightly colder sfc temps than previous run....

Off to stuff myself...Happy Thanksgiving!

Yea...nam says big sleet and zrain fest n+w. All the globals showing some sort of frozen waa now .

As far as Monday's ULL and coastal...eps continues to keep the door cracked open for possible impacts esp northern and ne  Md . We are still 90 to 100 hrs out from the ull crossing the area and at this stage small changes dont necessarily mean just noise imo ...there can still be trends . Inside 72 and esp 60 hrs then I believe bumps either direction are indeed most likely noise . 

Happy Thanksgiving!

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Maybe it can trend enough to get mix on late Sunday night/Monday morning. Secondary pops near OC, NJ at GFS 12z as opposed to se of NYC at 6z. Both are further north than the 12z NAM, which is around the Delmarva. Keep trending!

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4 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Looks like we may need to get through a few days to get any king of handle on what the LR will look like.  A lot of spread on the EPS....

AO

7LlRRqv.png

Check of the spread on the EPO...Could be +4 or could be -6....:arrowhead:

6fEQLcl.png

What does the thicker bar in the interior of the overall error bars mean?

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Probably the op

 

Anyway consider me bummed.  It is clear the overall message is +AO/+EPO.  I had my hopes set on the EPO.

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7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

What does the thicker bar in the interior of the overall error bars mean?

 

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Probably the op

No, it’s either the 50th or 75th percentile or the first standard deviation.

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