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Chicago Storm

Nov. 10-11th snow event thing

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Looking at current temps in parts of IL/WI, it seems they are running at or even above the warmer guidance right now.  This could cancel out once it precipitates but may be a least a little cause for concern for cutting into amounts where marginal thermal profiles are progged to hang on longer, like around Chicago and into northwest IN.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looking at current temps in parts of IL/WI, it seems they are running at or even above the warmer guidance right now.  This could cancel out once it precipitates but may be a least a little cause for concern for cutting into amounts where marginal thermal profiles are progged to hang on longer, like around Chicago and into northwest IN.

:yikes: @ lake shadow

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6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looking at current temps in parts of IL/WI, it seems they are running at or even above the warmer guidance right now.  This could cancel out once it precipitates but may be a least a little cause for concern for cutting into amounts where marginal thermal profiles are progged to hang on longer, like around Chicago and into northwest IN.

Looks like precip is breaking out a rad earlier than expected as well

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41 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

I wonder what the record is for consecutive number of days with atleast 1” of snow on the ground for places like Chicago in November. Could be 5 consecutive days this week if all goes well, have to imagine it’s hard to string together too many more than that this early in the season. 

The last 8 days of November 1950 had at least 1" of snow on the ground.  That is the longest streak in November.  I'd have to imagine there are very few occurrences of 5 days in the mid month timeframe.

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8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

:yikes: @ lake shadow

Not calling bust for Chicago (especially at ORD since it's on the northwest fringe of the city), but it's one of those things where if it does come in on the lower side, we will be able to look back and say that there were some early clues.  Wild card of course is the lake effect and it could compensate for a warmer start.  I don't think I'd make significant changes to amounts if I were LOT.

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17 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looking at current temps in parts of IL/WI, it seems they are running at or even above the warmer guidance right now.  This could cancel out once it precipitates but may be a least a little cause for concern for cutting into amounts where marginal thermal profiles are progged to hang on longer, like around Chicago and into northwest IN.

Cooler drier air moving in quickly here. Already in the lower to mid 30s with dews in the 20s north of the city.

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37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The 8:10 pm LOT update almost sounds like I could've written it, lol.  

yup. sounds wish washy to say the least. 

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33F currently and rain/wet snow mix in Hamilton Ontario. The weather network is calling this a potentially historic snowstorm for the GTA. I think looking back that if this goes as the models predict this could be a nightmare scenario for the GTA. Talking to coworkers and friends/family and they have all said the same thing. Heard a bit of snow coming tomorrow, should probably put the winter tires on soon. They are assuming its a normal run of the mill 1-2" sloppy snow coming 

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54 minutes ago, Baum said:

yup. sounds wish washy to say the least. 

It takes a special airmass to get noteworthy accumulating snow in the core of the city (not ORD, not MDW) at this time of year while the flow is onshore.  In the halloween storm, precip didn't change to snow and start accumulating until the flow was offshore.  And it is a pretty good airmass... I mean, we are talking about record cold coming in right behind this.  There could eventually be some accumulations in the downtown area while the flow is still onshore but the better bet for more efficient accumulation is definitely as the flow turns more northerly and then west of north.  It will be much colder just upstream (I could see ORD being like 27 while downtown is 34) so even a subtle shift in winds will bring that colder air in pretty fast. 

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Temperature has dropped below freezing at YYZ. Should help allow the ground to cool for better accumulations when the storm arrives. 

Latest HRDPS sets up a pretty stout deformation band across the Niagara/Buffalo region. Could definitely see totals approaching 8-12" in this region. 

 

 

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This is is  Bananas.  Spreading the wealth  snowfall events since  Oct, 2019.    Stack it up November Tall Y'all. 

Nice to see what we're capable of pulling off this early, even for us challenged near, Lake Michigan. 

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Not a single flake in Iowa City so far, meanwhile CR has been in a nice band for several hours. I don't understand how I'm always on the wrong side of the cut off. If I'm in CR, it will dump in Iowa City, but if I'm in Iowa City it will dump in CR. 

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