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Chicago Storm

Nov. 10-11th snow event thing

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Basically foreign vs american guidance at this point.

RGEM/GGEM/Euro/Icon all have an area of 2-5", locally higher.

NAM is DAB, and GFS is pretty close to that as well.

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NAM is really a low outlier as far as qpf.  I'd say the GFS sort of splits the difference between the NAM and the foreign models.  On another note, starting to get in range of the extended HRRR and RAP runs that go out 36 and 39 hours, respectively, and will be interesting to see how they handle the lake enhanced band. 

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I think about 3" is a reasonable starting point around here.  At least that is about where I would put the floor.  That is factoring in only a very small contribution to totals from the lake band due to concerns about residence time and boundary layer temps, except perhaps as CAA increases and the band is exiting and winds flip a little more offshore.  If the band lingers longer than expected and temps aren't an issue, then totals around 5-6" would become more likely. 

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I see this event as been very similar to earlier in the week only south and the american models were grossly underdone with that event. This time around the frontogenesis should be even better with a stronger baroclinicity. Atmosphere should be really efficient at wringing out the moisture available.

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Most of the non-Euro models are quicker to break down the onshore flow/convergence in northeast IL and shift it more into Indiana.  One exception is the HRDPS (hi-res RGEM) which handles it a lot like the Euro.

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19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


RGEM nice too.

American guidance going down, per usual.


.

Yeah 18z GFS trending toward foreign models. 

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8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Tom has clearly had the same graphics guy for like 20 years

No reason to change what isn't broken.

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

3" call looking solid

Gotta appreciate the rarity of getting multiple snows this early in Chicago.  There have only been 3 years when multiple 1"+ snows occurred by 11/15.  If we restrict it to 4"+ snows, it has only happened once.  

10/29-30/1906:  2.2" ; 11/11-12/1906:  2.1"

11/3/1951:  4.4" ; 11/6-7/1951:  9.3"

11/9/2018:  1.0" ; 11/15/2018:  1.1"

10/30-31/2019:  4.6" ;  TBD

 

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Fwiw, the HRRR and RAP are toward the eastern side of the lake with the enhanced band even at 6z Monday.  Maybe we can get a model blend of the western and eastern solutions and park it over my head for like 6 hours.  :weenie:

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