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November 2019 discussion


weathafella

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Heights have been shifting a lot from run to run int he EPO region....guidance is definitely struggling there.

Yes.  I looked when I got up this morning and said a half ugh-wasn’t horrid but not wonderful.  12z is better but we’ll see what 0z brings. 

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19 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Lol the gfs went from a whiff at 6z to a decent storm at 12z to a cutter at 18z. Useless model now I guess.

its not a good model... but to be fair I would expect a lot of variability run to run at this time frame (D4-5). Depending on the timing/ interaction with the s/w dropping south out of Canada, could mean anything from OTS to a cutter or anything in-between. The northern stream s/w is also in the middle of the Pacific right now so I'm sure there will be plenty of run to-run changes over the next couple days. 

We all know deep down it will be a thread the needle type situation to get a 12z GFS esque scenario anyway :lol: 

 

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