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Jtm12180

Hurricane Dorian Banter Thread

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Would be wild of this somehow made landfall on the Georgia coast. Iirc that area is a bit of a climotolagical hole when it comes to hurricanes

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32 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Can someone post a link to the chart that shows different model verification at each time point out to 120h that is occasionally posted. Tried to find it on google without any luck. TIA

 

C8dd4u9.png

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Just something to keep in mind... these were the model tracks for Irma 2-3 days before it made the turn:

 

 

IMG_1622.thumb.PNG.95a694e9fca83266da8281c03ad7e4fe.png

imageproxy.png

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I wonder if we finally have a decent forecast of forward speed.  Seems like it has been much slower than expected for awhile now.  NHC better be confident in the curve track, it's going to be ugly if SE FL has to get back in the cone.

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Here's some sideways ukie images from the french site.  Meteocentre comes out in less than 20 mins for those who can wait. 

Stays offshore. 

Lol enjoy

 

 

UN72-21.gif

UN96-21.gif

UN120-21.gif

UN144-21.gif

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Just now, RT1980 said:

The Main thread is getting hard to read.  The bias is strong here.  

Why read the main thread when you can look at the sideways Ukie and upside-down Korean in here?

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Just trying to learn a little bit!  Seems feelings get hurt when others don’t agree!  Not me personally.  I never understood people who were so excited for destruction and others who insisted no impact.  Hell the NWS doesn’t even know for sure but I’ve read comments here sealed in cement!

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3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Why read the main thread when you can look at the sideways Ukie and upside-down Korean in here?

Those f*cking maps

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3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Why read the main thread when you can look at the sideways Ukie and upside-down Korean in here?

My vertigo won’t take it!

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Those f*cking maps

Lol.   Trying to lighten the mood.  People get too wound up too easily on here. 

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2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What bias

Just seems some can say whatever they want and others disagree and posts vanish!  Maybe I don’t know background?

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9 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

Just seems some can say whatever they want and others disagree and posts vanish!  Maybe I don’t know background?

It's always been that way, a lot of groupthink and pig-piling on unpopular opinions and a few over-sensitive types to boot

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

It's always been that way, a lot of groupthink and pig-piling on unpopular opinions and a few over-sensitive types to boot

I can understand that but I thought this was a majority novice board where people were trying to learn about a hobby.  I get the wishcasting/trolling has no place but I don’t see too much in these times of people in the know teaching.  Just calling others out for not being in the know or others who have knowledge who happen to disagree out.  Oh the interwebs!

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2 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

I can understand that but I thought this was a majority novice board where people were trying to learn about a hobby.  I get the wishcasting/trolling has no place but I don’t see too much in these times of people in the know teaching.  Just calling others out for not being in the know or others who have knowledge who happen to disagree out.  Oh the interwebs!

It's the same as most other msg boards and social media. The main thread: it's always a few enlightening posts surrounded by 95% filler, you just have to take away what you like to and sift through the rest.

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42 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lol.   Trying to lighten the mood.  People get too wound up too easily on here. 

This still doesn’t come close to what you gentlemen go through in the winter when the NE forum is in storm mode. You and Bx usually have to use a , howitzer to lighten that mood. As always ....

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I can't believe the failure of computer models this past month. I'm not just speaking about this Dorian situation, I'm speaking about how 10 days ago the models showed us ending August with 0 tropical storms, and in the last ten days, we had two storms, one hurricane, and one hurricane of 150 mph bearing down the Bahamas. 

I almost think that "phantom storms" on the old models 10 years ago atleast gave us an idea of upcoming activity. I remember the long-range GFS continuously showed a long-tracked hurricane coming off Africa for weeks. One would hit New England, one would hit Mexico, one would hit Miami. That phantom on the model eventually became Hurricane Dean.

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23 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I can't believe the failure of computer models this past month. I'm not just speaking about this Dorian situation, I'm speaking about how 10 days ago the models showed us ending August with 0 tropical storms, and in the last ten days, we had two storms, one hurricane, and one hurricane of 150 mph bearing down the Bahamas. 

I almost think that "phantom storms" on the old models 10 years ago atleast gave us an idea of upcoming activity. I remember the long-range GFS continuously showed a long-tracked hurricane coming off Africa for weeks. One would hit New England, one would hit Mexico, one would hit Miami. That phantom on the model eventually became Hurricane Dean.

What’s crazy is that two days ago you assured us the ridge was modeled too weak and that it would go south and west like all the other weenie storms

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1 hour ago, the ghost of leroy said:

What’s crazy is that two days ago you assured us the ridge was modeled too weak and that it would go south and west like all the other weenie storms

Because when I thought the ridging would break down during Frances and Ivan and Dean and Felix and Ike and Irma...the ridging was stronger than the models depicted. So when the models showed ridging so strong Dorian got to the panhandle, I thought "Perhaps they're underestimating again and Dorian will head even further west than that." 

 

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7 members browsing the main thread.  That's a pretty good indicator to put a fork in it.

I have a hard time winding down after getting into tracking. 

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