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dryslot

September Weather Discussion 2019

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is a week later. Much flatter ridge, but still a warm look. It's very Nina. Need a hemispheric shift which should come after mid October I think.

 

m500za_f360_bg_NH.png?st=190923074108

Justin

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Low of 63F here...not too bad. None of that nonsense like up in far NNE, but of course they're fully mixed and gusting to like 25-30kt out of the SW. So there isn't much room for them to climb today versus down here.

Already mostly cloudy here too. I'll probably top around 80F again at the casa.

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Latest models suggest that the -NAO look tihs week into next week, begins to break down towards the first weekend of October, then the cold air builds into central and southern Canada before being unleashed into the northern third of the CONUS, north of 40N latitude.  This would happen towards the last week of October, perhaps a cold Halloween period.

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2 hours ago, weathafella said:

That nao would produce in winter with different wavelengths.

Lol. I missed this while making my post above. Yes. That's a nice arctic pattern for winter....almost certainly would be good here with the longer wavelengths and much further south Polar jet. 

-PNA/-NAO with an overall -AO is one of our best patterns for snowfall in winter. 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol. I missed this while making my post above. Yes. That's a nice arctic pattern for winter....almost certainly would be good here with the longer wavelengths and much further south Polar jet. 

-PNA/-NAO with an overall -AO is one of our best patterns for snowfall in winter. 

Kevin just exhaled....

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15 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Kevin just exhaled....

I mean, I understand the angst of not being able to relish a 47F day in early October....but no need to start worrying about winter. 

Ironically, those same posters would freak out if a 10/10/79 showed up. Lol. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, I understand the angst of not being able to relish a 47F day in early October....but no need to start worrying about winter. 

Ironically, those same posters would freak out if a 10/10/79 showed up. Lol. 

Per usual we'll probably get into late October or November and social media will start becoming a cesspool with winter cancel garbage. I don't get why so many are so quick to react and go on the ledge. As we have seen with some of the more recent winters things can change very quickly and a back loaded winter is not all that hard to fathom. Heading into the fall now though there are several features which at least yield some promise moving into the winter. 

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Per usual we'll probably get into late October or November and social media will start becoming a cesspool with winter cancel garbage. I don't get why so many are so quick to react and go on the ledge. As we have seen with some of the more recent winters things can change very quickly and a back loaded winter is not all that hard to fathom. Heading into the fall now though there are several features which at least yield some promise moving into the winter. 

We had some people canceling winter in autumn of 2007 when we were torching. Same deal in 2017. Both saw pretty wintry Decembers. (Esp 2007) Nevermind the back half of winter. 

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We had some people canceling winter in autumn of 2007 when we were torching. Same deal in 2017. Both saw pretty wintry Decembers. (Esp 2007) Nevermind the back half of winter. 

That 2007-2008 season was pretty wild. If I remember correctly didn't the pattern that season switch in a heartbeat? It wasn't a transition type change...it was a full blown full court press change. Wasn't there an overperfomring clipper too on NYE?

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Some interesting things in the sub tropics. The EPS has a large area of easterlies developing from the dateline west for the next few weeks. As a result, this will take a more Nina look which we have been harping for awhile. Not sure what it means for this winter, but I wouldn't rule out a Nina feel to the atmosphere if this keeps up into November. The Atlantic and Africa should see increased tendency for convection. My guess is a more active tropics too. 

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56 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Per usual we'll probably get into late October or November and social media will start becoming a cesspool with winter cancel garbage. I don't get why so many are so quick to react and go on the ledge. As we have seen with some of the more recent winters things can change very quickly and a back loaded winter is not all that hard to fathom. Heading into the fall now though there are several features which at least yield some promise moving into the winter. 

You must be new to this whole internet thing. ^_^

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I'm interesting in the next 10 days to 2-weeks for historical precedence and climatology - which we won't be able to compare until after the fact.. 

But I'd like to see a ranking against other 20th to 10th relays in the past... it's probably a tedious study as climate numbers tend to be bundled by months.  Need a date-to-date reanalysis ... I think NCEP does provide a web interfacing for linear numbers look ups. 

The other aspect/hypothesis I'm toying with is that the preponderant -AO is helping to mask what might be a historic Hadley cell intrusion into mid latitudes.  That's important, because we've had some heights that should have put up lots and lots of high 90s this summer but other than some middling heat here and there, it's been an 89er. 

The way that works is, the AO is suppressing the ambient polar jet S of normal ... not hugely so, but just enough.  Plus ( for summer standards ) that means more gradient than normal along the 45th and 50th parallels ..also a subtlety by say an ishypses or two, but that's enough for the following:  As ridge/trough couplets then roll along that axis in southern Canada, the confluence intervals are engineering unusually strong surface high pressure regions that are occasionally ( in models ..) wedging in quite far underneath those higher than normal heights. This, between 35 and 50 N... That means easterly llv wind anomalies/factoring. Continental heat plumes are adulterated and/or failing to get dumped into those ridge scaffolds that would/could otherwise support hotter thickness/diurnal temperatures. 

So what we are getting is modestly above normal out of heights that look like they'd support an inferno.   

This is also compounding further by the fact that the lower Maritime trough is a near permanent fixture ...and that the models occasionally fill and that faux warms the mid/ext ranges.  The Euro's been doing this every other run for like five days re that particular synoptic concern.  But, it adds to reasons why we are disproportionately cool relative to heights over all... Last night's 00z run walls off the bigger numbers due to that trough shunt - though the EPS was less.   

Basically, it's been a historically hot heights summer ( maybe ...conjecture ) in this paradigm, but is not represented in the dailies.  Fascinating what lengths Gaia will go to hide GW from one of the chief constituent society's most guilty of causing it - I call this this a "cleaning cycle" on the global oven.  Gaia wants to get rid of Humanity, so ... keeps us thinking it's cooler than it is, while using us to turn up the heat - ...how devious.  Ha!  just kidding...

 

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21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Nothing in the pattern for the next week or two would suggest cold...why would anyone post about it?

Didn't stop the cold clowns earlier this summer

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Haven’t had time to post but those 3-4am temps in NNE have to be like +30 from normal for that time of day.

It was 64F here at midnight and then 74F by 3am when the strong low level jet started mixing out the inversion.  

Those 3-6am temperatures were like +5 to +10 above the normal MAX temps, much less at the coldest part of the climo day...

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Just now, Dr. Dews said:

Didn't stop the cold clowns earlier this summer

These are likely bigger departures from normal than anything we saw all summer.   My MET summer came in just a shade below normal for JJA.  The hot humping didn't seem warranted for three months straight IMO ;).

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

These are likely bigger departures from normal than anything we saw all summer.   My MET summer came in just a shade below normal for JJA.  The hot humping didn't seem warranted for three months straight IMO ;).

All a dream tomorrow. You'll be posting about clouds and small droplet showers that remind you of winter orographics. :lol: 

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

These are likely bigger departures from normal than anything we saw all summer.   My MET summer came in just a shade below normal for JJA.  The hot humping didn't seem warranted for three months straight IMO ;).

July had a +12F at ORH, and a +10   Overall that was a pretty warm  month.

June and July were a tiny bit AN here, and Sept should finish AN looking at forecasts... Nothing like last summer though

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

July had a +12F at ORH, and a +10   Overall that was a pretty warm  month.

Yeah looks like we had 1 day of +12 in July (the only double digit positive of the summer) and yesterday was +12.

The difference though is that the July day was our only 90+ at 91/69... a +12 now delivers 82/52. 

Sensibly and in terms of comfort, there's a big difference between a 91/69 and a 82/52, ha.  +12 right now is Chamber Weather in summer.

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Also, this is not a CONUS wide Chinook. The one-eyed pig in AK is not winking at us. The next two weeks should feature lots of early season snows out west and in Canada,  Calgary looks to get some snow next weekend. So it's here, but this pattern is more driven by sub-seasonal oscillations. We have a heck of a heat plume off of Mexico aiming for Diane in Nashville.

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