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dryslot

September Weather Discussion 2019

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Last 4 Septembers have averaged about +2 here.  Given discussions and models, I think 2019 will fit the pattern.  And I expect plenty of sun.  This summer has had the highest sunny day share of any of my 22 here, and September on average is my sunniest month.  Would be nice if those 2 stats worked together.

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10 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Last 4 Septembers have averaged about +2 here.  Given discussions and models, I think 2019 will fit the pattern.  And I expect plenty of sun.  This summer has had the highest sunny day share of any of my 22 here, and September on average is my sunniest month.  Would be nice if those 2 stats worked together.

Still have plenty of outside work to do, Septembers in general can be warm and on the wet side, I really don't mind a warm fall even into the first part of October, By the second half, Its onto hunting and i would rather it be on the cooler side then transition to colder temps heading into Nov.

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23 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Last 4 Septembers have averaged about +2 here.  Given discussions and models, I think 2019 will fit the pattern.  And I expect plenty of sun.  This summer has had the highest sunny day share of any of my 22 here, and September on average is my sunniest month.  Would be nice if those 2 stats worked together.

It's been torchy here.  +3.5F averaging the last 4 years

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35 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Still have plenty of outside work to do, Septembers in general can be warm and on the wet side, I really don't mind a warm fall even into the first part of October, By the second half, Its onto hunting and i would rather it be on the cooler side then transition to colder temps heading into Nov.

September has the lowest median rainfall here at 2.98", though the average of 3.67" trails JFM for driest.  The average is skewed by 1999, with 4" on 10-11 then nearly 6" from Floyd the next week.

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Meteorological summer ends in two days...   whence autumn begins.   Most around in this social media depot know this - just sayn'

Here is the first real shot across the bow air mass ...though we've seen better; this one is deep enough.  I think it fitting in an symbolic sort of way, that it is latched on to a rapidly transitioning "Dorian" - subjective as it may be ..this is when where/if summer's "back breaks"  

gfs-legacy_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

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Let's lay down the precedence early, eh ?

150 hour 18z GFS with a full on wrap back CCB blizzard occurring eastern Ontario, replete with a 974 mb bomb ... on the same chart ( though thousands of miles away of course) there is Dorian lurking interior SE...  That's pretty awesome man -

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

We frost advisory in N ME overnight

NWS has a low of 46 for us but it's already 49. Given we've been in the 30s 3 times already this month, I'm wondering if we end up with a frost as well

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Shot by family member from Woodstock, CT this evening.  Woodstock Fair going on as well.

This type of stuff makes me realize why my parents live here all summer.

qauZO4u.jpg

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42 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Shot by family member from Woodstock, CT this evening.  Woodstock Fair going on as well.

This type of stuff makes me realize why my parents live here all summer.

qauZO4u.jpg

Great time at the fair yesterday 

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44F this morning and now absolutely stunning out.  Much better than yesterday.  

Tomorrow looks like most models have 0.75-1.50” for much of the NNE region.

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11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

44F this morning and now absolutely stunning out.  Much better than yesterday.  

Tomorrow looks like most models have 0.75-1.50” for much of the NNE region.


Just make sure you look at models and not charts.  :)

 

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Box not happy with me

Hey Steve, Our tech staff do a fantastic job making sure any and all sensors are properly calibrated & undergo routine maintenance. Pretty much been the case since the automated surface observational network began. 

wxsitequal.png

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Well you have to be careful with those maps. MADIS isn't perfect and it's a lot worse near bodies of water like that. The analysis values may not be representative of the actual station's siting. The sudden jumps in accuracy when viewing the station over a long period of time is when MADIS is more useful.

BOS could be technically be correct, but could have siting changes. We've talked about what happened with CON 3 years ago when the equipment checked out fine, but the problem was they laid out dark mulch around the ASOS. Obviously that's going to cause a problem. White rocks ended up being the agreed upon solution, but it goes to show you the data coming from these important climatological sites aren't perfect either. 0.01C accuracy doesn't mean shit when the siting is piss poor.

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Looks like most/all models have 1-2” of rain tomorrow for a large portion of NNE.  

Hunker down inside and watch it rain I guess.  Been a while since we’ve had a good 12-18 hour synoptic rain. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's amazing how the Euro keeps trying to bring winter across the country in the extended...

 

image.thumb.png.7f194c9679835a02a81d86f463b0e9ac.png

Mid September is the perfect time to start going back into a torch pattern.

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33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Mid September is the perfect time to start going back into a torch pattern.

Can only wait for all the “you guys asked for it” posts when it’s warm after the butterfly changes to ACATT.  

“You could’ve had your heat in the summer but no, you wanted COC.  Now it’s hot when no one wants it.”

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