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dryslot

September Weather Discussion 2019

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Down to 34-35 this morning.  Yesterday's 61/36 was 10° BN and pulls the month down nearly to -6.  Still waiting for the month's first 70+.  Maybe tomorrow. 

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Models doing everything in their power to bully +PNAP though. The signal was warmer over the last two day's of run/blends/means compare to the runs from overnight - 

I just have seen this all summer, and it is still going on in the models where they struggle away to build a ridges over four days of trend, only to implode them at least excuse in one or two cycles seemingly "inventing" reasons to topple ridges/erode/ablate them, and well, even though they haven't verified in the dailies'/details particularly well, we have been dodging the real beefy heat.   

It's a hard subject to debate though, because it's textured. We've been above normal :arrowhead:  It really comes down to saying, 'we could have been much more so relative to failed patterns of mid/exteded ranges'  - it's all about that relativity.  We're cool relative to the patterns at times, but verifying above normal for the stretch.  interesting. 

Anyway, as we are nearing the equinox and deepening our wade into the transition season, I feel ...well, wonder, if the AO's persistent negative phase state ( and other vestigial signatures for that via observation of higher speed flows from jet suppression ) we've witnessed all summer, might carry over into autumn for some earlier cool snaps.   But then it gets blurry with that relativity again. Because, the -AO ( if so ) could merely off-set and brings closer to neutral.

It's the expanded Hadley cell that is scienced and documented associated with GW - it's not just me and my protestations, either. This is known and refereed in the ambit of general research.  I thought I was the only one noticing this .. but was <_< to find out I was actually late-ish to that party really ( ...but don't feel too badly ... most in society/media never got the invite to begin with ).  By subtle measures of DAM depth in the atmosphere, the heights are bloated around the tropical and subtropical "girdle" of the planet.  This "presses" N into mid latitudes and what is really almost too subtle to see in summer, becomes a bit more coherently noticeable in winters; and that is steeper mean gradients when the boreal heights fall off and the total geometry of the atmosphere gets sloped unusually so between the mid latitudes and PV latitudes.   That's why we've set so many land-speed flight records in the recent decade(s), among many other evidences.  But these aren't just interesting observations [  probably/likely ] related to GW. They may be effecting the pattern management/verification of the models, and I also believe it becomes somewhat problematic for assessing storm characterization by deterministic areas of the weather sciences - because a goodly bit of that is based on storm natures that were different 50 years ago/climate in general.   

It's digressing - I just was going to correct a statement and ended up adding to this post too much. Sorry. But, I'll tale off with, any seasonal outlook that doesn't begin or at least even hint that this above factors in, may be less worthy ( imho ).

 

 

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1 hour ago, alex said:

Official low here of 31.6

Wow, congrats! 9/10 is not at all early for your first subfreezing low there, correct? I recall you getting frost/freeze in June, July, and August in past years. You radiate really well.

49.1° F low here. It clouded up overnight, so not much drop. I can't radiate, but I've had lots of 40s at night and the leaves are definitely starting to turn. Low diurnal temperatures and CAD dominate here.

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ye-heh ... now that summer's back is solidly broken ..here comes the the Euro. 

Buuut, like I said earlier - can't be trusted.  

one school is ... it sets in the face of all the summer's back is broken spin doctoring that deludes us closer to the snow coke snort season, so we DEFinitely can't believe a warm pattern now. 

but... more pragmatically, it's done this all year... and I'll be surprised if that look is there this time tomorrow. 

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It will be warm next week IMO. Most ensembles show this. That trough out west should puke up a nice heat ridge moving east. Question is, will it be dirty with HP overhead from remnant lower heights to the northeast or will a piece of it break off? Probably both to some extent. Just don't know how much on either side. #stillinstalled.

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5 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

Wow, congrats! 9/10 is not at all early for your first subfreezing low there, correct? I recall you getting frost/freeze in June, July, and August in past years. You radiate really well.

49.1° F low here. It clouded up overnight, so not much drop. I can't radiate, but I've had lots of 40s at night and the leaves are definitely starting to turn. Low diurnal temperatures and CAD dominate here.

His frosts would probably run about a week earlier than my location.  Here are the dates (non-chronological) of my first frosts over the past 21 years:
Sept. 1, 2, 5, 6, 9(2), 10, 11, 13, 15, 17, 19(2), 20, 21(2), 24, 25, 26, 30, Oct. 6 (in 2011.  Sept had mornings of 33 and 34.)  Mean and median both Sept 17, pending each additional year.

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7 hours ago, dryslot said:

43.7°F, Another cold morning here.

 

7 hours ago, tamarack said:

Down to 34-35 this morning.  Yesterday's 61/36 was 10° BN and pulls the month down nearly to -6.  Still waiting for the month's first 70+.  Maybe tomorrow. 

49f. Our hill may suck for growing grass, but at least we don't have to worry about any freezes for at least another 4-6 wks.

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5 hours ago, dendrite said:

Looks toasty. Maybe even low 80s up here.  

Might break 75F tomorrow up here.

Too early to pay for heat so good to see some 65-75F afternoons in the forecast this next week.

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11 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

that's a sizzler later next week on the ec ens

Op was warmer...probably still a few messy members in there in that d8-10 range. I think I'd lean on the warmer side though.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Might break 75F tomorrow up here.

Too early to pay for heat so good to see some 65-75F afternoons in the forecast this next week.

Yeah I was tempted to flick the heat on the other day, but just toughed it out and then uninstalled instead.

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Might break 75F tomorrow up here.

Too early to pay for heat so good to see some 65-75F afternoons in the forecast this next week.

Too bad no sun or it’s probably 5-10 warmer. 

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1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

 

49f. Our hill may suck for growing grass, but at least we don't have to worry about any freezes for at least another 4-6 wks.

Freezes don’t matter on your hill anyway since you can’t grow anything. :P

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8 hours ago, wxmanmitch said:

Wow, congrats! 9/10 is not at all early for your first subfreezing low there, correct? I recall you getting frost/freeze in June, July, and August in past years. You radiate really well.

49.1° F low here. It clouded up overnight, so not much drop. I can't radiate, but I've had lots of 40s at night and the leaves are definitely starting to turn. Low diurnal temperatures and CAD dominate here.

Yes We radiate like a mofo here, so this is not at all unusual. My kid goes to school in Whitefield and they're balmy compared to us lol, so pretty much on time. Earliest I've seen it was August 17 2 or 3 years ago. 

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