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weatherwiz

Wednesday, August 7, 2019 Severe Potential

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The NAM (and even euro) has been rather aggressive with the potential for strong-to-severe t'storms Wednesday. This doesn't appear to be a widespread severe weather setup, however, there could be some locally significant severe weather with damaging winds with the potential for a tornado. The NAM has been extremely aggressive with a backed llvl flow with ample wind shear. While mlvl lapse rates are poor, dewpoints perhaps tickling the mid 70's will result in low LCL's and ample 0-3km CAPE (perhaps in excess of 150 J/KG). 

The warm front looks pretty impressive as well; characterized by a strong theta-e gradient (enhanced by daytime heating...despite extensive cloud cover) and rather high PWAT values. Storm motion also looks to be parallel (or close to it) to the warm front which will result in locally enhanced SRH values. 

Any updraft which can become mature enough will have numerous ingredients to become severe posing a risk for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Best potential looks to be south of the MA Pike.  

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41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

12z runs look quite impressive. Maybe a bit more room for a bit of a bigger event

Doesn’t look like a lot of sun tomorrow Wiz? Will dynamics compensate for that?

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1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Doesn’t look like a lot of sun tomorrow Wiz? Will dynamics compensate for that?

I think the timing is more very late afternoon/evening and even through the overnight so I don't think surface heating is a major deal here. Our instability is going to derive from a very moist llvl airmass and high theta-e air. Also, as the evening progresses we get some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates which will help to maintain instability despite loss of diurnal heating. 

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1 hour ago, TheBudMan said:

and James 93L threads ....

Yeah, it seems I am the least successful at starting threads for different topics.

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Going to be quite interesting today. Looks like we'll get some decent sfc heating which should really enhance the potential for round 1. Round 2 potential is also quite intriguing b/c despite the loss of sfc heating we'll see steepening mlvl lapse rates and forcing. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like our typical 7/10 Ginx split where first round is mainly west of river and second is his area of SE CT to Se MA, and not much in between based on CAM’s.

 

27 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

ok I have seen enough, no need to worry about today around here

 

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to be quite interesting today. Looks like we'll get some decent sfc heating which should really enhance the potential for round 1. Round 2 potential is also quite intriguing b/c despite the loss of sfc heating we'll see steepening mlvl lapse rates and forcing. 

:unsure:

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1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

 

 

:unsure:

:lol:

well let's set some expectations here...

1) This likely isn't a widespread severe weather event. 

2) Torrential downpours and flash flooding is probably maybe the greatest threat today 

3) With what looks to be decent sfc heating later on that should yield steep llvl lapse rates. This combined with a strengthening llvl jet and PWATS around 1.8'' will result in damaging wind potential with the strongest storms...not widespread damaging winds, but some localized pockets of damaging winds. 

4) There is enough of a combination of wind shear (speed/directional) and CAPE to warrant the possibility for a tornado. 

What I would expect...

Numerous to widespread convection...of course some are going to miss out or get very little...that is the nature of this activity...some get nothing from round 1 and maybe get round 2...some get round 1 and get nothing round 2...some just flat out will miss out. 

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Somewhere along the path of the shortwave is going to have decent turning of winds through the column. Poke a little theta-e ridge up the Hudson and I wouldn't be shocked at a tornado or two.

Overall skinny CAPE and marginal shear points to a microbursty risk around here. Closer to that shortwave though...

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48 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

:lol:

well let's set some expectations here...

2) Torrential downpours and flash flooding is probably maybe the greatest threat today 

 

you sound so confident

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8 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Somewhere along the path of the shortwave is going to have decent turning of winds through the column. Poke a little theta-e ridge up the Hudson and I wouldn't be shocked at a tornado or two.

Overall skinny CAPE and marginal shear points to a microbursty risk around here. Closer to that shortwave though...

Seems to coincide too with the track of the meso-low...seems like there is a window where you have everything pretty much maximized and overlapping. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

:lol:

well let's set some expectations here...

1) This likely isn't a widespread severe weather event. 

2) Torrential downpours and flash flooding is probably maybe the greatest threat today 

3) With what looks to be decent sfc heating later on that should yield steep llvl lapse rates. This combined with a strengthening llvl jet and PWATS around 1.8'' will result in damaging wind potential with the strongest storms...not widespread damaging winds, but some localized pockets of damaging winds. 

4) There is enough of a combination of wind shear (speed/directional) and CAPE to warrant the possibility for a tornado. 

What I would expect...

Numerous to widespread convection...of course some are going to miss out or get very little...that is the nature of this activity...some get nothing from round 1 and maybe get round 2...some get round 1 and get nothing round 2...some just flat out will miss out. 

One round is west. One round is East. Little in the middle, but she got much back. Pretty straightforward 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

One round is west. One round is East. Little in the middle, but she got much back. Pretty straightforward 

The first round may actually go through a good chunk of the state. 

given satellite trends and forecast for a strengthening LLJ over our heads later this afternoon I am pretty excited about potential for severe here in CT. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The first round may actually go through a good chunk of the state. 

given satellite trends and forecast for a strengthening LLJ over our heads later this afternoon I am pretty excited about potential for severe here in CT. 

I’m not. I think other than NW CT the state gets largely missed by anything significant . Won’t be surprised if a decent sized zone sees no rain 

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Stay safe out there and remember find a room in the middle of your home or take refuge in a basement!

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Stay safe out there and remember find a room in the middle of your home or take refuge in a basement!

looks like precip is going to be on the low side unless we get under a heavy cell. I'll go out on limb and say 0.1" by tomorrow a.m. Our little mini drought continues.

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6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

looks like precip is going to be on the low side unless we get under a heavy cell. I'll go out on limb and say 0.1" by tomorrow a.m. Our little mini drought continues.

I don't expect very much here, It would be tonight if we see anything heading into tomorrow with the secondary front.

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Solid gray skies here, so no insolation except for the cloud tops.  These "possible torrential rain" events have been dumping less than 0.1" at my place this summer.  My only siggy RA in the past 3 weeks was 10 days ago when a little TS made a direct hit for nearly 1" while nearby stations got little/nothing.  Air is moisture-rich, though - needed the wipers on hilltops and east-facing slopes this morning.

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This is eastern mass porn.

We might get that once a summer elevated smoke show.

Despite loss of daytime heating dew pts in the low 70s coupled with
some height falls/cooling temps aloft models offering 1000-1500j/kg
of CAPE across RI and eastern MA. This combined with trailing mid
level speed max of up to 35 kt at H7 may result in a second round of
strong storms tonight across RI and eastern MA. Strong winds and
localized torrential downpours/flooding would be the concerns. Also
given shear profiles rotating storms are possible

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9 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

This is eastern mass porn.

We might get that once a summer elevated smoke show.

Despite loss of daytime heating dew pts in the low 70s coupled with
some height falls/cooling temps aloft models offering 1000-1500j/kg
of CAPE across RI and eastern MA. This combined with trailing mid
level speed max of up to 35 kt at H7 may result in a second round of
strong storms tonight across RI and eastern MA. Strong winds and
localized torrential downpours/flooding would be the concerns. Also
given shear profiles rotating storms are possible

Oh that would be lovely. I’d sacrifice sleep to have a night like that 

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