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bluewave

August 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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24 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think this is the best lightning I have seen from such a far distance. Some sick bolts going up into the anvil 

It was firing rapidly here and I was on the southern fringe.

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

That's the hail core that was over Somers

I got some nickel sized hail but only for about 2 minutes and it was still more rain than hail. First I've seen it here in a few years though so that was nice. If you went south of me into Somers there wouldn't have been any other than what was blowing in from the north.

All in all a good storm, great wind, heavy rain and hail but it was over as quickly as it started. I'll clean up the downed branches tomorrow and look forward to the next one. After a month or so without significant rain it was nice that it was a solid t-storm but it would have been better if it rained more.

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Amazing light show from cells so far N tonight here along the N Shore.  Wonder if the cells make it to LI tonight or die out. 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I think this is the best lightning I have seen from such a far distance. Some sick bolts going up into the anvil 

I drove to Bayville.  Quite a show going on. 

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10 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

here in manhattan i could see the flashes of lightning from storms so far to the north of the city..

They're only about 35 mi to the north of the city. Not that far away

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Cellphone cameras have gotten pretty good.  Nhght time photo of dangerous skies over southern Connecticut 

 

20190803_224356.jpg

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

Plenty of unknowns concerning next winter at this time. 

Will the raging Pacific jet relax?

Will the record summer -NAO extend into winter?

What will happen with ENSO?

Will the amped up MJO continue for another winter?

How will the extreme Arctic summer warmth and low sea ice  impact the fall and winter circulation?

Hearing some private mets talking about an early start to winter this year.  I am not sure what that is based on. Last year ( early and mid winter winter ) proved even the best seasonal models, plus weekly models,  all failed to deliver even close to what actually happened in terms of sensible weather. Consensus proved to be of no value. 

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I’m in armonk and this rain is worrysome. I’m sure there’s a lot of flooding going around town. Too chicken to go out in this constant lightning and the heaviest rain I’ve probably ever seen! Cell has been parked overhead for over an hour!

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16 minutes ago, Rock888 said:

No way these storms survive into NYC/Li..

They will. There's more then enough elevated instability left, non existent Marine influence..I think theyll hold. We usually all do well with storms that are moving SEish. Obviously folks will miss out as this isn't a 100 mi squall 

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12 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

They will. There's more then enough elevated instability left, non existent Marine influence..I think theyll hold. We usually all do well with storms that are moving SEish. Obviously folks will miss out as this isn't a 100 mi squall 

100% they will. Very sticky out rain is up to yonkers now. Maybe Staten Island misses it and south Brooklyn 

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18 minutes ago, frd said:

Hearing some private mets talking about an early start to winter this year.  I am not sure what that is based on. Last year ( early and mid winter winter ) proved even the best seasonal models, plus weekly models,  all failed to deliver even close to what actually happened in terms of sensible weather. Consensus proved to be of no value. 

Any chance this private met is JB? Way too many things out on the table to say early start to winter. Arctic has been torched this summer. Who knows if that will cause a lag.

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8/3

TEB: 91
PHL: 89
LGA: 89
New Bnswk: 88
ACY: 87
TTN: 87
BLM: 85
NYC: 86
EWR: 85
JFK: 84
ISP: 84

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Looks like it’ll miss me to the west, so predictable.

At this point I’ll take anything, even the 0.01” I received the other day added up to over half a gallon in my makeshift rain collection system (a large planter with a plugged drainage hole underneath a leaky gutter).

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