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July pattern(s) and discussion


Typhoon Tip
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55 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Frost for Estcourt Station.  (After a heat wave the previous week)

The conspiracy theorist in me sees that a lot in this particular model...   Massive cold wave is bookended by a "too" conveniently timed warm up of equal proportion... and vice versa. Like it can't just let the warm(cool) departure ride... is it fabricating normalization -

It's probably just a natural ordering of R-wave roll-outs/replacement schemes ... I mean, if it's very warm, at some point... it's gotta be very cold, or the climate's changing - oh...wait.

But it sometimes seems like the model is engineered to run out and find some corrective pattern so it doesn't blow it's verification wad all over climo and look bad.  heh

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

But it sometimes seems like the model is engineered to run out and find some corrective pattern so it doesn't blow it's verification wad all over climo and look bad.  heh

Well it certainly looks bad. It is basically the same as someone saying, "yeah at some point the heat is going to break and it is jacket time". I mean I have people asking me what the winter is going to look like. I said winter? Did we just skip a season there? I mean it is feeling more and more true that fall and spring aren't defined seasons anymore. Winter just bleeds into spring until you wake up one day and say oh... time for AC. The time between heat going off and AC going on is definitely shrinking. Then in the fall summer bleeds into mid fall. I can't tell you how many "fall" weddings I have gone to in the past few years that have been warmer and more humid than my August 6th wedding date. 

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15 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Well it certainly looks bad. It is basically the same as someone saying, "yeah at some point the heat is going to break and it is jacket time". I mean I have people asking me what the winter is going to look like. I said winter? Did we just skip a season there? I mean it is feeling more and more true that fall and spring aren't defined seasons anymore. Winter just bleeds into spring until you wake up one day and say oh... time for AC. The time between heat going off and AC going on is definitely shrinking. Then in the fall summer bleeds into mid fall. I can't tell you how many "fall" weddings I have gone to in the past few years that have been warmer and more humid than my August 6th wedding date. 

It's an interesting perspective...

I've opined in this social media in the past ...based in no smaller measure upon observed occurrences, weird snow in octobers and mays, with unsettling frequency since the year 2000.

That interestingly fits your statement there....  Trope, other side of same coin -yar..    This is true what you are saying, and shows for me that this isn't something that I'm singularly noticing, that we seem to be getting strangely increased frequency of colder patterns descending to our relative latitudes ... both unusually early, and late.

Since the year 2000 is coming up on 20 years ( of course...) worth, at what point does that sample size become less like noise, and really like some sort of paradigm shift.   And these strange 300 + hour mid October pattern semblances ... they're not likely to verify too well, but I'd argue they are perhaps canvasing that same base-line that's causing the former things to happen.  Which of course logically leads us to almost presume ... up, here comes another October probably loaded with modeled oddities yet again.

Funny thing is... despite any of those Octobers ... there's no clear/coherent correlative essence that portends any way to those ensuing winters.  At least that I can see.. The winters themselves are scattered, warm cool wet white or dry ...

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Crazy, still sitting at 70f here.

69/60 up here at last observation... feels better but still not quite the same as those mid-50s type dews and lower.

But this isn't like a rapid drop to a 50F dew or something.  Still a bit of humidity and the forecast calls for a gradual lowering of dew points into the mid-50s by midday tomorrow up here.

 

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4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

69/60 up here at last observation... feels better but still not quite the same as those mid-50s type dews and lower.

But this isn't like a rapid drop to a 50F dew or something.  Still a bit of humidity and the forecast calls for a gradual lowering of dew points into the mid-50s by midday tomorrow up here.

 

Temps being in the 70s have helped it feel not so bad.  Earlier it sucked when it was in the mid 80s.

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9 hours ago, tamarack said:

Thank you thank you!  for digging this out.  I'll assume, w/o further info, that the obs site remained the same from 6/1/48 until the current observer took over in 1966.  The move early in 1898 is telling, as all the 1890s triples occurred before then, and temps didn't again reach the mark until the 1911 inferno.  The one oddity that remains is the very mild minima of August 1949.  Farmington has had 38 minima 70+ in 126 years and the only months with more than 2 are 8/1896 (3) and 8/1949 (5).  Raising the bar to 72 drops the total to just 12, and 8/49 notched 4 of them.  No other month has had more than one.  Since that hot month, there's been only one day, 7/21/1977 (74) with a low milder than 71.

What does PO stand for, point of original?  Center of town?

Most likely Post Office.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

1.42" total from all of the different showers going back to Thursday.

This is my wettest June into July since I’ve moved here. Not saying much though as the summers have been dry recently. But, it’s been nice for the plants and grass. I also have a massive hen of the woods ready to be pulled and sautéd for those who like that.

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is my wettest June into July since I’ve moved here. Not saying much though as the summers have been dry recently. But, it’s been nice for the plants and grass. I also have a massive hen of the woods ready to be pulled and sautéd for those who like that.

Mushroom?

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31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is my wettest June into July since I’ve moved here. Not saying much though as the summers have been dry recently. But, it’s been nice for the plants and grass. I also have a massive hen of the woods ready to be pulled and sautéd for those who like that.

Those are delicious.

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