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Typhoon Tip

July pattern(s) and discussion

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Tongue in cheek by Bob aside...experiencing the 4 seasons in this part of the world keeps things interesting.  In July I want no part of winter but by winter I’ll be more than ready-in fact I am old man winter!
Looking forward to Siberian snowfall updates

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GFS is either going to look very good ... or, not very good this time Sunday when looking back at MOS performance this week. 

Haven't seen the 12z Euro operational run ...but the synoptic evolution for the week across the 00z run painted a hot picture for the 4th and 5th.  90s those two days... Now, I didn't see any 'cloud' products from that model - in fairness to debate, it may be muting temps. However, with amplifying mid and upper heights and WSW component, the climo on those parametrics is usually less ceilings/more insolation. 

Contrasting ...the 12z GFS MOS is cloud almost at all times from late tomorrow to Sunday morning.. 

I think...well, wonder if the GFS is having a problem with DP and huge theta-e loading that's trying to steam bath its way up into the NE as the week goes on?  The GGEM and the GFS both doing something bizarre over the weekend, ...they are morphing what appear to be 'heat lows'/thermal troughs along the lee side of the Apps and the coastal plain up to SNE, into baroclinic lows... This, with zero baroclinicity between Buffalo and NYC... All but 972 to 976 dm thickness everywhere.  It's also got QPF saturation in that same area in that torrid morasse.  I'm not sure I buy any of it..  The GFS MOS has collapsed the high temperature prospects from 90 and 93s to barely limping passed the mid 80s, and fact, fails now to tough 90 at all in some cases through this Saturday...with 850s over 18 C and 570s thickness and 588 ridge cap... mmm...  weird.

I'm interested in seeing the Euru here... 

Good signs for mid month:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Good signs for mid month:

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

Good to see the 50/50 low still there in some fashion...Maybe insurance against the SE ridge in case the Canada low is a little too west

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Low heights to our NE. Where have I seen that before? Could very well end up above normal in that period though. Devil is in the deets.

 

 

image.png

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50 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

eps likes that look to. Sorry it doesn’t fit your July call.

Oh it will.  That was a warm humid look on eps but not as hot as I expected.  Lots of thunder with that look.  But you posted that before you saw eps.  For that-:weenie:

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3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Oh it will.  That was a warm humid look on eps but not as hot as I expected.  Lots of thunder with that look.  But you posted that before you saw eps.  For that-:weenie:

0z eps had the same concept. I’m on record for a back n forth month. Some HH stretches some normal, nothing anomalous like you and your CT son predict.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

0z eps had the same concept. I’m on record for a back n forth month. Some HH stretches some normal, nothing anomalous like you and your CT son predict.

I will admit calling for a very hot summer.  It wouldn’t surprise me to have a mildly above normal July and a scorching August.

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20 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Yeah i have a few with red leaves already,  we're past peak sunshine

The color change has nothing to do with being 10 days past the solstice.  It does signal unwell trees though.

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26 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I will admit calling for a very hot summer.  It wouldn’t surprise me to have a mildly above normal July and a scorching August.

Dude won’t admit the summer looks big big humid. Cranky will be running the lawnmower all over his face 

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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dude won’t admit the summer looks big big humid. Cranky will be running the lawnmower all over his face 

He already failed month 1, called for hhh way above normal. Did you enjoy todays 70s and low dews in Falmouth?  71/59 now wow thats a COC vacation,  we beach, did you get relief from yesterdays 70s?

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52 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I will admit calling for a very hot summer.  It wouldn’t surprise me to have a mildly above normal July and a scorching August.

With a normal June, the Met summer guys who called for a scorcher wire to wire..... Likely with all that cold near Hudson Ban a summer as depicted by Brian and Luke. Heat waves with relief days, pretty typical. 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

With a normal June, the Met summer guys who called for a scorcher wire to wire..... Likely with all that cold near Hudson Ban a summer as depicted by Brian and Luke. Heat waves with relief days, pretty typical. 

I never even consider June.  It’s still spring in SNE on north.  It’s summer now though.

Gun to head I’d go +2 in July and +4-5 in August through September.

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I will admit calling for a very hot summer.  It wouldn’t surprise me to have a mildly above normal July and a scorching August.

We have Aug as the highest positive departure from normal as well. 

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-NAO does not correlate the same way for New England in JJA btw -  ...Brian alluded to this, and if you look at his product's details you can see how that look could supply us with plenty of very warm potential ... also, MCS/convection chances. 

The 582 dm isopletch is not usually how you run cold air through here.  And probably of more importance, have the mean that high means there are members that are sweltering in there too.

Re the D10 Euro,... the EPS and Euro rarely deviate that much so I'm not sure ( but suspect less confidence ) in that one model cycle meaning anything, seeing as both broke continuity to flash that look. We'll see if it has legs but ... one may not be so quick to pounce on a look merely because you want it.  Just sayn' ... 

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59 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

He already failed month 1, called for hhh way above normal. Did you enjoy todays 70s and low dews in Falmouth?  71/59 now wow thats a COC vacation,  we beach, did you get relief from yesterdays 70s?

There’s nothing more to be said, they’re down 4-0 on torch calls, since March. At this point you just hope they finally get one month right so all the circle swamp ass tickling and fingering they’ve done doesn’t go to complete waste. 

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It’s going to be sad when the Tolland cicada stops playing music and struggles to go into hibernation because the great late summer torch carries right through winter too. 

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dude won’t admit the summer looks big big humid. Cranky will be running the lawnmower all over his face 

How does it look big big humid?  

Walk us through that with model data?

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

You’ll be right eventually. You’re on a tough streak. 

Just taking a wild guess, but I’ve got money on DIT calling for an extremely hot and humid summer in 2020, 2021 and 2022.  

Amazing how some can make the same forecasts for years on end between certain months.  Almost like wishcasting?

I’m not even against calls for a very very very humid summer, just wish there was something backing it up instead of making the same claim literally every year.

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Wow...can't believe it's July already. Where's the time going? We're one step closer to winter.

Comfortable day today, but the tough weather is just around the corner. It's coming, like it or not. July and August can be difficult months for me weatherwise and have me longing for that glorious, but dark, rainy November day where the street lights come on in the middle of the afternoon. Those types of days are the prelude to the greatest season...

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25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Up to 5 feet hail in Mexico (look at those Guadalajara photos! )  meh?

77 glorious degrees and heading to Wells Maine Tuesday . Milf travel 

Will she be buried in 5 feet of pickle juice?

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