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June 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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16 minutes ago, bkviking said:

Really remarkable just how persistently cloudy and/or rainy it’s been since early 2018 with very little let-up. Bluewave posted several items like Islip LI beating Seattle’s longest consecutive days with precip (33 straight days I believe ending May 8)

What a rotten and horrible stretch. 

At least we should sneak in a dry weekend before our next potential round of convection on Tuesday.

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I was in central VT yesterday and they were saying it has been since early September since they've had 4 consecutive days without precip. I think we got that once or twice this year.

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least we should sneak in a dry weekend before our next potential round of convection on Tuesday.

yeah we should have at least 72 hours of dry weather starting this afternoon

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2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

yeah we should have at least 72 hours of dry weather starting this afternoon

3 consecutive dry days for NYC is the max for the last 3 months. Have to go back before March 20th to get 4 or 5 dry days in a row with no T. This establishes a new rainy day record in NYC for this time period.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Mar 20 to Jun 20
Missing Count
1 2019-06-20 49 0
2 2003-06-20 44 0
- 1989-06-20 44 0
- 1973-06-20 44 0
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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

3 consecutive dry days for NYC is the max for the last 3 months. Have to go back before March 20th to get 4 or 5 dry days in a row with no T. This establishes a new rainy day record in NYC for this time period.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Mar 20 to Jun 20
Missing Count
1 2019-06-20 49 0
2 2003-06-20 44 0
- 1989-06-20 44 0
- 1973-06-20 44 0

Some of the models have rain Monday evening so we may not even make it 3 full days

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Hard to believe just a few years ago we were very dry-I remember an October here with .25 for the month and that fall was bone dry...

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11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll see. The Euro holds off until Tuesday. It has the potential for another 1”+ where the best convection sets up. 

Yeah if it holds off til Tuesday 6 of the next 7 could be dry

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17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hard to believe just a few years ago we were very dry-I remember an October here with .25 for the month and that fall was bone dry...

Depends on which side of these stuck patterns you are. Moving forward it should only get more extreme

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10 hours ago, doncat said:

1.01" since midnight,  3.39" past 4 days and 6.16" for month...still raining also.

3.25" past 4 days and 6.35" for June here. Ground is extremely saturated with standing water.

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The sun's return this afternoon ushered in what will likely be a drier period that could last into the first week of July. In addition, more typical summerlike warmth will develop, especially next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -35.29 today. That is the lowest figure since the SOI was -38.91 on February 20, 2019.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.291. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the magnitude of the previous round blocking.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.8°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer.

In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

On June 20, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.639 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.688.

Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest such a warmer and drier outcome. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies has turned cooler. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome.

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 54%.

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7 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Depends on which side of these stuck patterns you are. Moving forward it should only get more extreme

I've mentioned this before but the increased melting from Greenland is likely reinforcing this pattern. That dumps cold water formerly locked up in glaciers into the Newfoundland area, and promotes the troughs getting stuck near there. The ridge that pops up over the trough in Greenland promotes more melting, especially this time of year when much more heat is available (and more heat in general due to global warming). It seems that this year with the west based -NAO in late spring is causing potentially a record melt season there. It won't always be the case, but it's like rolling dice with two or three times the possibility of getting snake eyes. 

I know it's not the climate change thread but it's not hard to see the connection to the last 2-3 months' continuous pattern. 

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Next 8 days are averaging 77degs., or 3degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.0[69.3].      Should be +0.1[71.4], by the 30th .

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Our area just experienced a rare warm season cool temperature statistic for the 2010’s. Both NYC and LGA recorded their 3rd coolest maximum temperature for the first 3 weeks of June. Very unusual in a decade defined by historic warm season heat.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 21
Missing Count
1 1916-06-21 81 0
- 1903-06-21 81 0
2 2009-06-21 82 0
- 1878-06-21 82 0
- 1875-06-21 82 0
3 2019-06-21 83 0
- 2003-06-21 83 0
- 1900-06-21 83 0
- 1869-06-21 83 0

 

Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 21
Missing Count
1 2009-06-21 82 0
2 1972-06-21 83 0
3 2019-06-21 84 0
- 1958-06-21 84 0

 

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Today saw temperatures rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. High temperatures included: Albany: 80°; Allentown: 80°; Baltimore 83°; Boston: 83°; Harrisburg: 81°; Hartford: 82°; Islip: 81°; New York City: 79°; Newark: 83°; Philadelphia: 82°; Providence: 81°; Richmond: 83°; Scranton: 78°; and, Washington, DC: 83°. Tomorrow, temperatures will likely be several degrees warmer across much of the region.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4.

The SOI was -42.04 today. That is the lowest figure since February 19, 2019 when the SOI was -43.61.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.080.

Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase.

With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.0°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer.

In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer.

On June 21, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.638 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.641.

Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies suggests a cooler first 10 days of July. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome overall.

The base case is supported by the recent steep decline in the SOI. The SOI's sharp and dramatic decline may well mark the start of a larger process that will kick start downstream changes that will lead to a period of above to perhaps much above normal warmth in the first half of July, some relaxation in the warmth afterward, and then a very warm second half of summer (perhaps along the lines of the evolution of 1993 in August into September).

Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter).

The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently near 50%.

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Last 8 days of June are averaging 77.5degs., or 3.5degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.1[69.3].     June should end just AN at about +0.1[71.4].

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I believe this is also the first time since 2009 that we have not had a 70+ degree low at Central Park as of June 23rd.

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The much discussed Newfoundland/New England cold pool has warmed dramatically over the past 2 weeks -- now much less anomalous. Will be interesting to monitor to see if this will aid in the feedback of a gradually warming temperature regime in the Northeast.

 

jkemiu.png

 

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Between the rain and cooler week days the weekends have been mostly very nice since Memorial Day and today is shaping up to be one of the nicest.

Sunny an 80 here.

 

Believe THu - Fri /Sat (6/27-29) finally offer a shot at widespread 90s and the first for many. 

 

Models a bit more split now  on next weekend and fourth of July week so more to come as we progress through this week.  

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Coolest first 3 weeks of June during the 2010’s for the CONUS.

https://mobile.twitter.com/commoditywx/status/1142137469015613441

The latest June demand estimate of 237 national population weighted cooling degree days is the lowest/coolest reading since 2009's 230 result, ten years ago.
 
 
Image

 

This June should finish equal or warmer overall  (departures) than 2012 - 2018 despite the wetness and lack of heat.

EWR: -0.7 (thru 6/22) so far

EWR Jun Departures

2018:  -0.3
2017: +0.3
2016:  +0.3
2015:  -0.4
2014:  +0.4
2013: +0.9
2012:  +0.1
2011: +2.0
2010:  +3.8

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15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Between the rain and cooler week days the weekends have been mostly very nice since Memorial Day and today is shaping up to be one of the nicest.

Sunny an 80 here.

 

Believe THu - Fri /Sat (6/27-29) finally offer a shot at widespread 90s and the first for many. 

 

Models a bit more split now  on next weekend and fourth of July week so more to come as we progress through this week.  

 

 

Concur. 850mb temperatures would be supportive of upper 80s/90F three or potentially four days in the coming week. The warmer spots will probably hit 90F.

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Perfect weather today... this is what summer days should look like 78 with 37% humidity dry sunny weather. Enjoy it it looks like a good stretch of weather coming up!

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19 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Perfect weather today... this is what summer days should look like 78 with 37% humidity dry sunny weather. Enjoy it it looks like a good stretch of weather coming up!

I agree. We've been lucky but it won't last

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38 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I agree. We've been lucky but it won't last

I disagree I think this summer ends up hot and dry. It’s been wet and cool. 

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1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

Concur. 850mb temperatures would be supportive of upper 80s/90F three or potentially four days in the coming week. The warmer spots will probably hit 90F.

Then things cool off again most likely, seems the cold pool is preventing a sustained hot pattern for now.

Personally I'm not on board for a very hot July/August like some are suggesting. I think a modest +0.5-1 July departure is most likely. 

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