• Member Statistics

    15,569
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    HunterMT
    Newest Member
    HunterMT
    Joined
janetjanet998

May 27-29 Severe Potential

Recommended Posts

Nighttime photos of the Dayton, OH tornado look extremely ominous, this is one huge tornado that ripped through the northern part of the city, I fear for what we find out later this morning as the sun rises.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure if this has been posted

Dayton TV channel 2: https://www.wdtn.com/news/local-news/sheriff-crews-working-to-ensure-public-safety/2032652733

Quote

Crews are mainly focused on making sure people stay safe and are trying to clear roadways as quickly as possible.

The Sheriff is asking everyone to stay off the roadways in Montgomery County.

2 NEWS Reporter Adam Rife is on I-75 in the Northridge area, where I-75 southbound is completely blocked off. Traffic is being rerouted down to Wagner Road from the southbound lanes.

A tow truck is working to clear disabled vehicles from the area. The process is slow going, as the cars have to be moved one at a time.

Snow plows are out at the scene helping to push cars out of the way.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The storm near Fultonham OH probably could've used a tornado warning for a while now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just going off of where the major streets are red on Google Maps, it looks like the first Dayton tornado may have traveled about 16 miles, from near Brookville to the east side of Dayton.  The path of the 2nd tornado seems evident, too, though not as long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely prayers for those who live in Dayton and the Miami Valley.

I used to live in Cincinnati --- this event reminds me a bit of one from the evening of Tuesday June 3rd, 2008.  F0 and F1 twisters that evening (I distinctly remember one of them hitting Oxford) so likely not as strong as tonight.   They could have been significantly worse, but a severe event earlier in the day had left a narrow stable layer of air near the ground. 

But Supercells just to the north of a warm front, that stayed discrete for a considerable period of time and kept on producing, even after dark..  A pattern to look out for.

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

TOR WARNING FOR LAFAYETTE

Just noticed there was 4" diameter hail reported west of LAF.  Not sure it was that cell or another one but in any case, 4" hail is not that common in Indiana.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

The scanner feed is just awful....flattened houses being mentioned.

Yeah I'm listening. This reminds of "Night of the Twisters". (For those old enough to remember the 1996 TV movie) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Yeah I'm listening. This reminds of "Night of the Twisters". (For those old enough to remember the 1996 TV movie) 

Yeah...had to quit listening...it was not good at all. Seems low confirmed injury reports so far if any good news, but still very early.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Latest SWS for that storm only has "capable of producing a tornado" so it must by have lifted

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, yoda said:

Latest SWS for that storm only has "capable of producing a tornado" so it must by have lifted

Seems odd since the radar indication is quite strong. It’s kind of in a radar hole, but the velocity couplet is impressive. 

144D6BBC-64BB-4FE7-874D-9F68003ED856.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was out in the field today focusing on the storm I was on. I don’t know how much lead time they got, but that region is supportive of basements and most people have them. Hopefully cell phone alarms got people downstairs or to interior areas

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Tater Tot said:

Am I right in my impression that this level of activity wasn't anticipated? It was only an ENH day, right? 

Might have an argument that it overperformed.  Tempting to think it but I'm not sure yet.  Will be curious to see what the final count is.  

Everybody needs to remember that  really bad tornadoes can still occur with lower risk categories.  

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Seems odd since the radar indication is quite strong. It’s kind of in a radar hole, but the velocity couplet is impressive. 

144D6BBC-64BB-4FE7-874D-9F68003ED856.png

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
151 AM EDT Tue May 28 2019

The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Hocking County in central Ohio...
  Southeastern Pickaway County in central Ohio...
  Northeastern Ross County in southwestern Ohio...

* Until 215 AM EDT.

* At 150 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 7 miles east of Kingston, moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hocking Hills State Park, Starr, Laurelville, Adelphi, South
  Bloomingville, Gibisonville, Ilesboro, Union Furnace, Hallsville,
  Haydenville and Whisler.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Hoosier said:

Might have an argument that it overperformed.  Tempting to think it but I'm not sure yet.  Will be curious to see what the final count is.  

Everybody needs to remember that  really bad tornadoes can still occur with lower risk categories.  

Not to mention, the observational data didn’t really support this either. It appears the warm front moved north and the storms were able to latch onto the very favorable orientation of the front. 

The problem we’ve had the past ten days is everything that’s influenced these set-ups has been on the micro level. If we had much more extensive real time data, like soundings closer to ongoing storms, we might have been able to detect those factors sooner. If this isn’t a cry for greater investment, I don’t know what is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

Not to mention, the observational data didn’t really support this either. It appears the warm front moved north and the storms were able to latch onto the very favorable orientation of the front. 

The problem we’ve had the past ten days is everything that’s influenced these set-ups has been on the micro level. If we had much more extensive real time data, like soundings closer to ongoing storms, we might have been able to detect those factors sooner. If this isn’t a cry for greater investment, I don’t know what is.

 

If I recall, the weather the day of the Xenia '74 twister was unstable, but never did they expect the extent of tornadoes that struck the area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't really chase anymore since taking care of a sick loved one for several years now but family reunion today, relatives from out of town visiting. Nephews from Virginia always wanted to go with me back in the day but they were too young but now college aged and were thrilled to see this tornado with their uncle.  Ten mile drive to a few miles NW of Marion, IN to this one around 815pm . Thoughts and prayers to those affected by damage tonight... 

2019-05-28_013257 b.jpg

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Just noticed there was 4" diameter hail reported west of LAF.  Not sure it was that cell or another one but in any case, 4" hail is not that common in Indiana.

That can't be too far off the state record. I believe the record for Indiana is 4.25 or 4.50"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Was busy/traveling/otherwise not paying a ton of attention this weekend.  Will be interesting to dive into what happened more.  Pulled off the highway for nearly an hour and watched in disbelief on radar as the first tornado went through Dayton. 

My impression was earlier in the afternoon that there was tornado potential near the warm front in Ohio, but that activity likely would grow upscale before getting there and mute the potential.  Seems like it stayed discrete longer than expected, and perhaps instability overperformed a bit?  If you take the 0z ILN sounding's instability and put it on top of the radar detected wind profile closer to 2-3z it's a really prolific environment.  For reasons many others have mentioned, this really was not a good outcome and hoping the death toll is zero or something close to it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, DanLarsen34 said:

 

Hodo_zpsu6g4twga.jpg

This is roughly what the 00z ILN balloon hodograph looked like superimposed on the VAD hodograph. You can really see how much the 0-3 km wind vectors increased in magnitude. Very little direction change, but magnitudes just about doubled. When you see the phrase enlarged hodographs, this is what it means. 

4 hours ago, KoalaBeer said:

 

The ~ 20kft TDS and Vr just below 100 knots puts this right in the space between EF3/4. The few damage indicators I've seen (like the high tension tower) are solid EF3 degrees of damage.

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Might have an argument that it overperformed.  Tempting to think it but I'm not sure yet.  Will be curious to see what the final count is.  

Everybody needs to remember that  really bad tornadoes can still occur with lower risk categories.  

The eastern end of the outlook definitely overperformed. I would say IN was about as expected, but the OH forecast was a positive bust. And this isn't a shot at SPC either, there was very little to indicate an increased risk until it was happening. CAMs were not on it, and when they were they were too far north, even as late as 20z. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Was busy/traveling/otherwise not paying a ton of attention this weekend.  Will be interesting to dive into what happened more.  Pulled off the highway for nearly an hour and watched in disbelief on radar as the first tornado went through Dayton. 
My impression was earlier in the afternoon that there was tornado potential near the warm front in Ohio, but that activity likely would grow upscale before getting there and mute the potential.  Seems like it stayed discrete longer than expected, and perhaps instability overperformed a bit?  If you take the 0z ILN sounding's instability and put it on top of the radar detected wind profile closer to 2-3z it's a really prolific environment.  For reasons many others have mentioned, this really was not a good outcome and hoping the death toll is zero or something close to it.


Yeah when that jet ramped up it basically caused the storms to have no outflow. Those southern most cells were absolutely ingesting clean warm air with helicities at 4-500.

As I said earlier as a former Toledoan reminded me so much of June 5-6 2010. Discrete cells with a strengthening low on a warm, muggy night. That big one from Dayton stayed tornadic until 3 AM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, ICEHOCEY77 said:

The USAF museum is right there as well, right? 

Yes it was very close to the AF museum, could have hit it, but haven't heard yet. My office had no damage, but a few hundred yards to the south complete devastation!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.