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janetjanet998

May 27-29 Severe Potential

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OK lets have a do over tomorrow from Friday

similar set up over similar area ...active WF (maybe who knows after what has happened so far)

 

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Tomorrow is not necessarily a higher end tornado threat day, but definitely warrants some concern especially for anything riding near the boundary.  Currently think the better threat will be south (maybe around Kankakee southward) but will have to see how the morning plays out.  A lot of people will be outdoors tomorrow so hopefully they are watching. 

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2 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

OK lets have a do over tomorrow from Friday

similar set up over similar area ...active WF (maybe who knows after what has happened so far)

 

Yeah, it does look vaguely familiar to say the least lol

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Was about to say the same thing. UH streaks look concerning

Just now, Hoosier said:

00z HRRR is fairly concerning for Chicagoland, especially southern parts.

 

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46 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

00z HRRR is fairly concerning for Chicagoland, especially southern parts.

24 hours form now:

That MCS not handled well by the modes really killed off that potential,,, blah blah blah,,, etc etc etc

....I'm not going to look at any more data or radar until tomorrow afternoon and only under one condition:

If or when I see Towering CU in an atmosphere that hasn't been disrupted by something....clouds...sinking air....or whatever

It's 1989 and I only got my eyes and NOAA weather radio ......  it's more suspenseful that way 

 

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12 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

24 hours form now:

That MCS not handled well by the modes really killed off that potential,,, blah blah blah,,, etc etc etc

....I'm not going to look at any more data or radar until tomorrow afternoon and only under one condition:

If or when I see Towering CU in an atmosphere that hasn't been disrupted by something....clouds...sinking air....or whatever

It's 1989 and I only got my eyes and NOAA weather radio ......  it's more suspenseful that way 

 

I'll say this... capping looks like less of an issue than Friday.  Something could go wrong of course but I really do expect the frontal zone to light up.

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18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I expect to be called into work tomorrow.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Evening runs looking a bit ominous especially near I-88 southward.  I think the flow off the lake should keep much of Cook and especially Lake IL with a lower tor threat.

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I'll say this... capping looks like less of an issue than Friday.  Something could go wrong of course but I really do expect the frontal zone to light up.

The cap Friday was brutal. Probably as close to a cap bust as you can come while not actually busting, even though many did, especially in IL. If tomorrow isn't disrupted I'll probably be around Galesburg somewhere.

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3 hours ago, janetjanet998 said:

24 hours form now:

That MCS not handled well by the modes really killed off that potential,,, blah blah blah,,, etc etc etc

....I'm not going to look at any more data or radar until tomorrow afternoon and only under one condition:

If or when I see Towering CU in an atmosphere that hasn't been disrupted by something....clouds...sinking air....or whatever

It's 1989 and I only got my eyes and NOAA weather radio ......  it's more suspenseful that way 

 

Love this post. You know we looked up at the sky back then! Love those days. Looks like some potential next few days, got to find those decaying outflow boundaries or WF's to focus lift and near sfc vorticity. Definitely a Now casting kind of spring. These MCS trains sort of remind me of 93, of course they extended well into July that year.

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Well, we have an ENH and a 10% tornado area on the new day 1 outlook.  

Gonna split this period off into a new thread in a min...

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Quote

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1248 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2019  
 
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z  

 
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN  
ILLINOIS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...AS  
WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEAST COLORADO  
THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A RISK FOR TORNADOES, SEVERE HAIL  
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE  
CHEYENNE RIDGE OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, AND PERHAPS SOUTHWARD  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW, NOW  
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF  
THE WEST, WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AFTER  
REACHING THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY BY 12Z THIS MORNING, IT APPEARS  
LIKELY TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COLORADO ROCKIES LATER  
TODAY, THROUGH TONIGHT. AS IT DOES, A BELT OF 60-70+ KT CYCLONIC  
500 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE AROUND ITS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN  
PERIPHERY, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY  
12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF  
WARM ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS  
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION, IN THE WAKE OF AN  
INITIAL PERTURBATION EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE LEAD  
IMPULSE, IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A  
PERSISTENT, PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH (CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN  
GULF OF MEXICO), NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY, THEN  
EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.  
   
..SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
 
 
MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE LEAD IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
ACCOMPANIED BY A BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY, 40-50+ KT FLOW  
IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER, ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR  
ASCENT ALONG A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA  
THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS  
LIKELY TO COINCIDE WITH THE NORTHWARD RETURN OF SEASONABLY MOIST  
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST  
TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO LARGE MIXED-LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF  
2000-3000 J/KG.  
 
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES, REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION  
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY RE-INTENSIFY  
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA, WITH NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG  
THE WARM FRONT INTO ILLINOIS. THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER  
UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SEEMS PROBABLE, BUT THERE MAY BE A  
PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING  
SUPERCELLS. EITHER MODE MAY SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, IN THE  
PRESENCE OF LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG THE  
FRONT. DISCRETE ACTIVITY WOULD SEEM TO POSE A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RISK  
FOR A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS  
PROBABLY WILL TEND TO BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT RISK, AS A COLD POOL  
CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS WITH UPSCALE GROWING CONVECTION. THIS  
IS EXPECTED TO TEND TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WARM  
FRONTAL ZONE, ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
INTO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY

 

swody1_categorical.png

swody1_tornadoprob.png

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Just using the Kankakee forecast sounding as one example to point something out... 

It's not one of those days with obnoxiously strong flow through the column, but it's certainly sufficient along with the nice CAPE.  This is a nicely sheared forecast sounding with good turning with height all the way into the mid levels.

hrrr_2019052704_018_KIKK.thumb.png.5f78d8933b8f40e80bec3e462273321e.png

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Will likely be out tomorrow for the first chase of the season.  The evolution of the AM convection will likely have something to say about where things set up later in the day, but I have a feeling we'll end up out in the La Salle-Pontiac-Kankakee area.  

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Just using the Kankakee forecast sounding as one example to point something out... 

It's not one of those days with obnoxiously strong flow through the column, but it's certainly sufficient along with the nice CAPE.  This is a nicely sheared forecast sounding with good turning with height all the way into the mid levels.

hrrr_2019052704_018_KIKK.thumb.png.5f78d8933b8f40e80bec3e462273321e.png

It just takes one discrete cell to take advantage of that and we will have a big one. Likely will chase locally tomorrow. 

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Just using the Kankakee forecast sounding as one example to point something out... 

It's not one of those days with obnoxiously strong flow through the column, but it's certainly sufficient along with the nice CAPE.  This is a nicely sheared forecast sounding with good turning with height all the way into the mid levels.

hrrr_2019052704_018_KIKK.thumb.png.5f78d8933b8f40e80bec3e462273321e.png

Fat low-level cape and very low LCLs there.  :thumbsup:

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7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Fat low-level cape and very low LCLs there.  :thumbsup:

There's a nice signal in the CAMs for a robust supercell or two.  Wouldn't be surprised to get something EF2+ as the discussion hinted at, but I think they are a bit too generous with the tornado probs on the northern end.  Your target area looks pretty good at this time.

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Note the extremely favorable 200+ 0-3km CAPE on many forecast soundings... one of the single biggest things I think this setup has going for it. 

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22 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

Have to see how the activity near the river beats up the atmosphere 

As long as a huge MCS doesn’t blaze through, it should leave plenty of nice boundaries for intensification. 

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31 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

Have to see how the activity near the river beats up the atmosphere 

My bigger concern is the warm front getting hung up way south (as we have seen 1,000,000 times) and LOT ending up with boring rain and ruining a good local chase day. 

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It's still early and this line is weakening and flying NNE. Should be plenty of time for the WF to move north with destabilization in its wake, provided nothing else blows up for a while.

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