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eureka22

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Everything posted by eureka22

  1. I think that's partly right, the other part is from the social media apps on their phone. Someone sees a 216 hour euro map on Facebook and then sends it to their friends and it keeps getting shared and then everyone bombards the local TV mets pages with, "OMG we're gonna get buried why aren't you warning us about this?" I've noticed for both GHD3 and this upcoming system they're trying to temper the panic. They acknowledge that there may be a storm next week and here's what they know and what they don't know. Keep up with future forecasts but don't set your hair on fire just yet. TWC doesn't help when they show the GFS or Euro snowfall map five days out. There are no numbers but we know the what the color table is, you aren't helping.
  2. ILX is total weenie for my area. I'm sure it was an error but it did wake me up when I saw it. ILZ031-112200- WOODFORD- INCLUDING THE CITY OF EUREKA 436 AM CST FRI FEB 11 2022 .... THURSDAY BLUSTERY, COLDER. RAIN LIKELY, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW. SNOW HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGHS AROUND 40. TEMPERATURE FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
  3. From the 13Z Day 1. ...Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South... A mid-level dry slot on the southern fringe of the Cristobal should continue to develop east-northeastward over southeast Missouri and western portions of Kentucky/Tennessee toward Illinois/Indiana through the afternoon. With a very moist air mass (low 70s F surface dewpoints) also developing northward, dry slot-related cloud breaks and diurnal heating will contribute to weakening inhibition and moderate buoyancy by afternoon, particularly across Illinois into western/central Indiana. The north/northeastward-expanding core of strongest low/mid-level winds will also reside within this same corridor, including an increasing mid-level westerly component this afternoon, which could boost the potential for somewhat longer duration/semi-discrete updraft rotation. A few tornadoes may occur across the region, along with isolated thunderstorm-related wind damage. Portions of Illinois (roughly the eastern half) into Indiana will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for a possible tornado-related risk upgrade (10% Enhanced).
  4. ILX and DVN are doing special soundings now so SPC is likely waiting to see what they reveal before issuing a MCD.
  5. ILX and DVN doing midday soundings per SPC request.
  6. WWUS40 KWNS 201834 WWP9 TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0199 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0132 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 WT 0199 PDS PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES : >95% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : >95% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : >95% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : >95% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 600 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23035 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES && FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU9. $$
  7. WWUS40 KWNS 201734 WWP7 TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0197 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019 WT 0197 PDS PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : >95% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES : 90% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 80% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : >95% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : >95% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 4.0 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 600 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 24035 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : YES && FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU7. $$
  8. I see your point. I might guess that for coordination purposes to mesh with other offices they went with warnings.
  9. WSW criteria are 6 inches in 12 hours OR 8 inches in 24 hours. My point and click shows the main activity (6.2") over an 18 hour period with the highest 12 hour total 3.8". It doesn't meet either requirement. A random click in Peoria shows a similar result.
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