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janetjanet998

May 27-29 Severe Potential

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Lol @ 12 tor reports from IA today with no watch.

Moderate risk yesterday not one tornado report, marginal risk today tornado outbreak... welcome to Iowa lol

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33 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Up to 19 confirmed tornadoes across Ohio now.

Per my research (and I may be wrong here), 19 tornadoes during one event ties this for 2nd all-time since 1950, in terms of the biggest Ohio tornado outbreak, by number of tornadoes:

1. Sunday July 12, 1992 - 29 Ohio tornadoes.  (that's A LOT but unlike all the other events on this list, it doesn't ring a bell AT ALL.  Not sure what the triggers were for this event.  There were a couple of F3 twisters).

2. Evening of May 27, 2019 into morning of May 28, 2019 - 19 Ohio tornadoes.

2. Sunday November 10, 2002 (Van Wert F4 day) - 19 Ohio tornadoes.

Some other historic Buckeye state events:

4. Sunday April 11, 1965 (Palm Sunday) had 11 Ohio tornadoes but they killed 60.  Highest in terms of death count.

5. April 23, 1968 (Wheelersburg F5) had 6 Ohio tornadoes.

6. Tuesday April 3, 1974 (Super Outbreak, Sayler Park and Xenia F5s) had 14 Ohio tornadoes.

7. Friday May 31, 1985 (Northeast Ohio, Niles-Wheatland F5) had 11 Ohio tornadoes.

8. Friday April 9, 1999 (Blue Ash F4) had 5 Ohio tornadoes.

9. Saturday night June 5, 2010 into Sunday Morning (Toledo area-Millbury F4) had 5 Ohio tornadoes.

10. Friday March 2, 2012 (the strongest tornadoes stayed JUST south and west of Cincinnati - though one F3 did clip Moscow, southeast of Cincinnati) had 7 Ohio tornadoes.

 

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We are up to about 40 tornadoes in the subforum for May 27-28, with about 11 EF2+ (I'm not being too precise with the numbers right now since they could increase). 

Fwiw, the June 5-6, 2010 outbreak produced about 45 tornadoes in the sub.    

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I wound up chasing today out on a whim, after not originally planning too. Good idea. 

I had been keeping an eye on a boundary rich in 0-3km CAPE and surface vorticity throughout the day. It was obvious to me that tornadoes would be likely if anything could go up and interact with it, but wasn't terribly confident, and due to other obligations, I couldn't truly chase this day. Though the storms went up late enough that I was able to chase them anyways. I arrived on the original tornado warned storm near Marengo and watched it for a time, it had a nice wall cloud and cycled once or twice, but didn't do too much.

55c4b7aab788c0e6d459cdbfb1fcee74.png

The storm still looked good and I continued to follow it, though noting that new convection was beginning to take shape to the south of this storm and would eventually interfere, but the base still looked alright and it was tornado warned, so I opted to stay with the storm. The storm did come quite close to producing a tornado immediately southwest/over Marengo, but it never did. There never was a pronounced RFD cut with this storm and it never made any well-defined intrusions into the updraft. Had this storm had a bit better of an RFD, it might've been able to close off the circulation associated with this wall cloud and produce.

c02efb1b7b485d1f0580ccff2d8410e1.png

As if responding to my wish, the storm did have a really nice RFD push right after the above picture was taken, but perhaps too nice as it totally undercut the base and caused the storm to go outflow dominant -- which it never recovered from. By this point, I was looking for other storms as this one was toast and decided to head to TEC near Williamsburg, instead of turning around and go SW, I decided the best possible course of action was to continue east until the Amanas and then proceed to screw around on dirt roads. While I was busy being an idiot, multiple tornado reports started to come in from the glorified shower behind the Williamsburg cell. I probably could've seen these, but I was just now finding my way to I-80 after an enjoyable experience with said wet dirt roads. Naturally, I flew west about as fast as reasonably possible and ended up being late to the tornado party this little cell was having, but at least I showed up. I saw the final tornado this cell produced -- a wonderfully contrasted elephant trunk that I saw from 8 or 9 miles away. The tornadoes today weren't from the established supercells, but rather meager convection that was trailing it which I thought was interesting, and my late realization of this fact cost me a few tornadoes, along with my poor road choices. Wasn't my best chase ever, but I'm happy with my result.

 

I'll look through my dash video and see if it caught any better pictures than I snapped on my phone. I presume it did, and if so, I'll edit this post and add them.

42ddc38f94658020d9d0cd8c57867a85.png

 

4ab4e04c7c0c799a92ac0e9d890c84f6.png
 

I should also say that I chased Monday in Northern Illinois, but I didn't see much aside from a birdfart 6 miles away and through the rain --- and only because another chaser was able to confirm this feature. Mediocre structure, mediocre contrast, mediocre everything. Didn't deem it worth doing a little writeup for.

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We had some healthy hail in Putnam County, Ohio from the line of storms that moved through Tuesday afternoon. We get small hail regularly, but hail larger than an inch in diameter is quite unusual. Fortunately, though the hail was large, there wasn't much of it. And, looking on the bright side of a terrible planting season, the ground has been so wet that nobody has corn coming up. :)

 

052819 Hail.jpg

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1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:

I wonder if we can get some spinners around the mid level low in IL today similar to IA yesterday 

Been wondering that myself this morning as I put satellite in motion.  That was sure a tornado fest in Iowa in a marginal risk area yesterday.  Will be watching the radar this afternoon.

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11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

We are up to about 40 tornadoes in the subforum for May 27-28, with about 11 EF2+ (I'm not being too precise with the numbers right now since they could increase). 

Fwiw, the June 5-6, 2010 outbreak produced about 45 tornadoes in the sub.    

No one can complain about lack of active weather, that's for sure.

 

tornado warning tracks.jpg

confirmed tornadoes.gif

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Yup can't complain (except my windshield lol).  Be nice to have a day or two dry.  Looks like things could pick right back up next week Tues-Fri.

Edit:  June is normally IN. most active tornado month I believe.

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We now have our first svr warning of the May 30 episode in IN.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
404 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA  HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN WABASH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  WESTERN GRANT COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 445 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 404 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST  
  OF BUNKER HILL, OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRISSOM AFB, MOVING EAST  
  AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE   
           TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  MARION, GAS CITY, FAIRMOUNT, JONESBORO, SWEETSER, SWAYZEE, SIMS,  
  CONVERSE, AMBOY, HOME CORNER, MICHAELSVILLE, NORMAL, MIER, JALAPA,  
  HERBST, SANTA FE, HANFIELD, WAWPECONG, HACKLEMAN AND RADLEY.  
  

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1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

 

Edit:  June is normally IN. most active tornado month I believe.

Correct.  June is most active with a long term average of about 5 per June, though obviously this can vary tremendously in any given year.  June 2018 only had 2.  The first half of June is a bit more favored than the second half.

April is the second most active month, with May slightly behind April.

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3 minutes ago, DanLarsen34 said:

NWS just upgraded the Dayton tornado to an EF4. We’re now up to two violent tornadoes during this outbreak sequence.

Figured I'd add the official link.

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1 hour ago, DanLarsen34 said:

NWS just upgraded the Dayton tornado to an EF4. We’re now up to two violent tornadoes during this outbreak sequence.

First EF4 in Ohio since June 5, 2010.

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3 hours ago, Indystorm said:

We now have our first svr warning of the May 30 episode in IN.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
404 PM EDT THU MAY 30 2019  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA  HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHWESTERN WABASH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  WESTERN GRANT COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  SOUTHEASTERN MIAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA...  
  
* UNTIL 445 PM EDT.  
  
* AT 404 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST  
  OF BUNKER HILL, OR 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRISSOM AFB, MOVING EAST  
  AT 30 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE   
           TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  MARION, GAS CITY, FAIRMOUNT, JONESBORO, SWEETSER, SWAYZEE, SIMS,  
  CONVERSE, AMBOY, HOME CORNER, MICHAELSVILLE, NORMAL, MIER, JALAPA,  
  HERBST, SANTA FE, HANFIELD, WAWPECONG, HACKLEMAN AND RADLEY.  
  

Took a ride up that way, it tried.  Low level flow was just not coperating.  

 

20190530_171307.jpg

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1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

Took a ride up that way, it tried.  Low level flow was just not coperating.  

 

20190530_171307.jpg

At about the same time you caught that a friend of mine was on the cell northwest of you in Wabash County

61771082_603142176854403_6936850668166578176_o.jpg

61975971_603117763523511_345212750944796672_n.jpg

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24 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Some tiny funnels coming out of the cells here in Dekalb county 

A4FAFA32-864D-4C7C-A967-9A82A9E49566.jpeg

Going to produce a 5 foot wide tornado with that little pencil :lmao:

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7 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Going to produce a 5 foot wide tornado with that little pencil :lmao:

I am standing on the deck watching a small spot in the storm to my south turn slowwwly. Real fun knowing it’s been pouring 3 miles to my south for 20 minutes while we remain dry 

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51 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

West Milton Ohio tornado upgraded to an EF3.

Up to one EF4 and two EF3s in the greater Dayton area alone, plus an additional EF3 in Celina. I am curious to see if the Celina tornado gets an upgrade treatment or not, as it went through a relatively new subdivision (~5 years old) and caused considerable damage to well-built homes, so much so that people are wondering how well said "well-built" homes stuck to updated building codes. My guess is it holds its rank, but I wouldn't be totally shocked to see an upgrade too.

One piece that stands out to me from the preliminary ILN write up on the Celina tornado: 

"One residence was completely lifted, with interior walls largely intact,
from its foundation, and dropped in an adjoining field approximately
70 yards to the north-northeast. This residence was anchored to a
cinder block foundation, with the upper level or two of blocks
breaking from the rest under the force of the wind."

Granted, cinder block foundation, but still...

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2 hours ago, Indystorm said:

That's more of a supercellular spaceship look than I would have imagined given the low level flow.   Nice photo.

Yeah thought the same thing.  I mentioned low level flow as there was rotation, not just this one but a couple more that drifted through, because the storms seemed elevated with the most action.  Low level winds were straight out of the N. even under that thing but about 1k up they were veering nicely.  That entire updraft was rotating at a good clip as were several others just nothing to bring em down.  Maybe if it woulda been in the mtns of WV coulda produced lol.

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16 minutes ago, geddyweather said:

Up to one EF4 and two EF3s in the greater Dayton area alone, plus an additional EF3 in Celina. I am curious to see if the Celina tornado gets an upgrade treatment or not, as it went through a relatively new subdivision (~5 years old) and caused considerable damage to well-built homes, so much so that people are wondering how well said "well-built" homes stuck to updated building codes. My guess is it holds its rank, but I wouldn't be totally shocked to see an upgrade too.

One piece that stands out to me from the preliminary ILN write up on the Celina tornado: 

"One residence was completely lifted, with interior walls largely intact,
from its foundation, and dropped in an adjoining field approximately
70 yards to the north-northeast. This residence was anchored to a
cinder block foundation, with the upper level or two of blocks
breaking from the rest under the force of the wind."

Granted, cinder block foundation, but still...

If that was newer construction there shoulda been some bolts secured in the footers that the base wall plates were anchored to, not just anchored to the cinders on top of the footers.  I can take out a cinder block anchor with the wives picture hanging hammer lol.

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