• Member Statistics

    15,754
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    TrickBamland
    Newest Member
    TrickBamland
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Rtd208

May 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

i think it's going to trend warmer again with a pacific pattern like this: 
 


ecmwf_z500a_us_7.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

islip's average for the month so far is exactly normal. you'd think it was -5 with all the posts like this. we've gotten so used to above normal that average feels cold

All the clouds, rain, and easterly flow muted the high temperatures this spring so far. A 71 degree max by May 10th is the 2nd coldest on record. People don’t really notice the warmer minimums this time of year. But they do during the summer with day after day of mins above 70 and not being able to open the windows at night.

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to May 13
Missing Count
1 1984-05-13 69 0
- 1978-05-13 69 0
2 2019-05-13 71 1
- 1995-05-13 71 0
3 1988-05-13 72 0
- 1966-05-13 72 0
4 1989-05-13 73 0
- 1968-05-13 73 0
5 1992-05-13 75 0
- 1975-05-13 75 1
- 1969-05-13 75 0
6 1997-05-13 76 0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the more impressive warmth got pushed back by a day or two into early next week. That Pacific fire hose looks like the real deal.

we would eventually get a good severe event in that pattern 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like both Mt.Holly and Upton are starting to hint at the potential for warmer/hotter temps over the weekend and beyond per their discussions. Temps should rebound nicely starting Wednesday with temps in the 60's working their way into the 70's and possibly 80's as we head into the weekend and early next week. Hopefully we are finally turning the corner.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
most of the rain missing the coast, dry slot came in here and the stuff behind looks showery at best.
Definitely not the pouring rain that was predicted this evening, not that it makes much difference

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Looks like both Mt.Holly and Upton are starting to hint at the potential for warmer/hotter temps over the weekend and beyond per their discussions. Temps should rebound nicely starting Wednesday with temps in the 60's working their way into the 70's and possibly 80's as we head into the weekend and early next week. Hopefully we are finally turning the corner.

It's gonna be hard to sustain anything in this pattern. It's more likely that the warm-up is just a temporary break from what we've seen.

Models could also trend cooler too. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, tek1972 said:

Definitely not the pouring rain that was predicted this evening, not that it makes much difference

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

yeah agree-it's still wet, but we certainly didn't need 2-3 inches like some models had a couple days ago....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The max in NYC so far today is 48...the record low max is 49 set in 1914...it was in the mid 90's two weeks later in 1914...I would not mind that happening again...1914 was not a hot summer but its hottest temperatures came in late May and around the first day of fall...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, uncle W said:

The max in NYC so far today is 48...the record low max is 49 set in 1914...it was in the mid 90's two weeks later in 1914...I would not mind that happening again...1914 was not a hot summer but its hottest temperatures came in late May and around the first day of fall...

Continuation of the more impressive low maxes than minimums pattern.

TEMPERATURE (F)
 TODAY
  MAXIMUM         48    259 PM  89    1956  70    -22       54
  MINIMUM         42    313 AM  39    1895  53    -11       52
  AVERAGE         45                        62    -17       53
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, uncle W said:

The max in NYC so far today is 48...the record low max is 49 set in 1914...it was in the mid 90's two weeks later in 1914...I would not mind that happening again...1914 was not a hot summer but its hottest temperatures came in late May and around the first day of fall...

that reminds me of 1996.  Remember we had snow in the Poconos on May 13 and a heavy frost on Long Island on May 14 and then a week later we were near 100 two days in a row lol.  It only hit 90 one more time- in late August.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, probably the Plains first and then eventually East. This raging Pacific Jet since the fall has been amazing. The snow lovers hope that it lets up before next winter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1126559786412183552

Interesting to see the density of #winter storm tracks through the Plains, upper Midwest, generally matching impressive season departure from average #snow totals along and to the north of those tracks, per analysis from

02A6A819-DDCF-403C-9A74-F92ABF4FADB3.png.4f37e6720da04ee06f50593d0fbae480.png

I'm not even thinking about snow right now lol although it's falling in New England and in the Catskills (also heard there was snow this morning in South Boston?)

I would accept 5 below normal snowfall seasons in a row just to get one summer like 2010 again.

I guess all those climate models that predicted an average of 3 100 degree days per summer by 2050 for NYC were wrong?  Instead we'll have 50+ inches of rain every year with temps in the upper 80s, a true tropical rain forest climate complete with tropical diseases and tropical bugs!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2019051300_054@007_E1_knyc_I_NAEFS@EPSGR

 

Good for about 25-30 degrees, from lowest temperature to highest temperature over the next two weeks.     Not very impressive {45-75), plus wind direction will have to be modeled correctly to get this [else BDCF}, unless this is already part of above calculation by the model.    Then the 80's would be possible if model is wrong, and 75 is the worst we will do.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, tek1972 said:

Definitely not the pouring rain that was predicted this evening, not that it makes much difference


 

Between 6:30-7:15 it absolutely poured between Brewster and Danbury. The windshield wipers were barely keeping up and the water on the roads was easily 1/2" deep. Everything is thoroughly saturated, the lower half of my yard is standing water and deep mud. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Today, Central Park recorded a temperature of 42°. That was the coldest reading this late in the season since May 14, 2013 when the temperature also fell to 42°. Central Park also registered a high temperature of 48°, which set a new daily record low maximum temperature. That was the first sub-50° maximum temperature in May since May 12, 2010 when the temperature also peaked at 48°. Today was also only the 3rd day in May with a high temperature below 50° since 1980.

LaGuardia Airport also reached 42°, which set a new daily record low temperature. The old record was 45°, which was set in 1998.

May 13: Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

Islip: 51° (tied record set in 2002 and tied in 2017)
New York City-JFK: 49° (old record: 53°, 2017)
New York City-LGA: 50° (old record: 55°, 2017)
New York City-NYC: 48° (old record: 49°, 1914)
Newark: 50° (tied record set in 1931)
Poughkeepsie: 49° (old record: 52°, 2002 and 2017)

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around May 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.82°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through May in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time.

The SOI was -14.15 today.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.698. Periods when the AO has been at or below -1.500 during the first 10 days of May have typically coincided with readings that are 1.0°-2.5° below normal during the May 11-20 period. The average temperature during the May 11-20, 1981-2010 period was 62.3°. Previously, the modeled figure was as low as 57.3°, which was below what is typical during such patterns and implied a sharper rebound in temperatures toward the end of the period than shown on the guidance. Since then, the guidance has shifted in that direction. It continues to show temperatures reaching the upper 70s as far north as the northern Mid-Atlantic region in the latter part of the May 11-20 period.

Overall, the sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance suggests that the probability of a warmer than normal May has now increased to 51%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.