Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,449
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    wagsphoto
    Newest Member
    wagsphoto
    Joined
HillsdaleMIWeather

Spring/Summer 2019 Complaint/Banter Thread

Recommended Posts

Just once during the spring I would like to feel a true tropical (like 80/75) airmass being advected in on a screaming LLJ the night before a high risk day.

My money's on it's not going to be this one. Chasers trying to stay optimistic for late May but I'll believe it when I see the >200kt GTG couplets on radar.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Have a strange suspicion of a stagnant stationary boundary sitting just south of the MI/IN/OH/IL border in coming days/weeks. 

 

You know.. the kind that keeps it miserable and in the 50’s with low clouds and rain on the north side, meanwhile 50 miles south it’s sunny and 80? Yeah.. I can feel some of that garbage coming... (and see it becoming more persistent on the models). No ******* thanks. I understand it has to set up somewhere, but it always sets up in the same spot every year. Gets old. Bring on summer.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Friday is looking a lot different from the last time I checked the models (a couple days ago).  Now looks like the front could be south.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Boo

lol. 82 at LAF while it is 52 at ORD. Guess you should not have moved up north.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, bowtie` said:

lol. 82 at LAF while it is 52 at ORD. Guess you should not have moved up north.

This is brutal if it verifies

sfct.us_mw.thumb.png.cd27e472493338b43cfe0eaac56f5ec7.png

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This is brutal if it verifies

sfct.us_mw.thumb.png.cd27e472493338b43cfe0eaac56f5ec7.png

Good luck to the DVN/LOT forecast offices with that.  Could either be 80 or 50 depending on where the boundary sets up that day.  Pretty classic May situation we see every year in this area.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Going to a Tigers game on Saturday, expect the cold shitty solution to verify.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This is brutal if it verifies

sfct.us_mw.thumb.png.cd27e472493338b43cfe0eaac56f5ec7.png

I didn't used to mind but this decade particularly the latter half has gotten me to that point. I officially hate living in Wisconsin.

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

The weather or the Tigers?  J/K :lmao:

Both, sadly I wish I was kidding :axe::facepalm:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As of now only 10% of the crop has been planted, this time last year we were at 90%. The 10% total planted is rivaling years of 1984, 1996, 2013. All fields around Central Illinois still remain untouched. I guess the ole saying “knee high by 4th of July” will pertain to this year. 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Serious question: why are the models still so unreliable and so laughably inaccurate in 2019? It's to the point where I can't trust anything more than 24 hours out. Even the ECMWF's performance has been total garbage as of late.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm just about done bitching about Spring.  The one week of it we've had!  With 80's maybe 90 looming I'm ready for the summer thread so I can't bitch about the end of May cool down popping up lol.  I'll take a return to the March April pattern from June to September in a heartbeat.  Be like living in Hawaii.  :sizzle:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/15/2019 at 2:28 AM, Stebo said:

Going to a Tigers game on Saturday, expect the cold shitty solution to verify.

I might go that day too. Cya there buddy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.freep.com/story/weather/2019/05/14/80-degree-temperatures-metro-detroit/3666723002/

Summer-like, 80-degree weather typically arrives at the beginning of May. 

But this year, it has decided to make a late grand entrance, potentially for the first time in 20 years.

May 17, 1999, was the last time southeast Michiganders experienced 80-degree weather this late in the spring.

June 17, 1924, is the latest date on record for 80-degree weather to arrive in metro Detroit, according to the National Weather Service in White Lake.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Potential for a major heat ridge in the 23-26 period with that dipping grinder out on the west coast. Whether it does or not, remains to be seen. Current EPS is like................eh, maybe, maybe not sorta deal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In early May, NWS announced it was planning to release the latest version of its signature forecasting model, the FV3-based Global Forecast System(GFS), Version 15.1. Once the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) completes a 30-day technical test successfully, this version will be the new operational model. The targeted release date is on or about Wednesday, June 12, 2019.

In February, NWS paused its implementation timeline to review user concerns about the excessive snow and a cold bias in the model and to explore other potential improvements. In the following months, NWS modified the model to alleviate excessive snow and cold bias in the model and made three key updates:

-Changed the way snow amounts were calculated and communicated to the land surface model, basing it on the fraction of frozen precipitation falling on the ground rather than on the total precipitation in cold conditions

-Refined the interaction of radiation with cloud particles, allowing for each type of hydrometeor (convective rain, stratiform rain, snow, graupel, and ice) to assume its own physical characteristics as calculated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory microphysics scheme (like particle radius) and interact accordingly with the radiation scheme

-Updated the supersaturation parameter over ice in the data assimilation system.

The results show an improvement over biases previously found in the model.

Additionally major changes include:

-Updating data assimilation to take in NPOESS Preparatory Project Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite ozone

-Placing NOAA-19 Solar Back-scatter Ultraviolet Instrument/2 ozone in monitor

-Assimilating Meteosat-11 Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager Channels 5 and 6

-Updating quality control for GOES Satellite AMVs in preparation for GOES-17.

If GFSv15.1 is implemented in June, GFSv14 model output will remain available through September 30, 2019, on the NCEP Model Analyses and Guidance (MAG) Evaluation website and NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) Para-NOMADS Website.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, IWXwx said:

In early May, NWS announced it was planning to release the latest version of its signature forecasting model, the FV3-based Global Forecast System(GFS), Version 15.1. Once the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) completes a 30-day technical test successfully, this version will be the new operational model. The targeted release date is on or about Wednesday, June 12, 2019.

In February, NWS paused its implementation timeline to review user concerns about the excessive snow and a cold bias in the model and to explore other potential improvements. In the following months, NWS modified the model to alleviate excessive snow and cold bias in the model and made three key updates:

-Changed the way snow amounts were calculated and communicated to the land surface model, basing it on the fraction of frozen precipitation falling on the ground rather than on the total precipitation in cold conditions

-Refined the interaction of radiation with cloud particles, allowing for each type of hydrometeor (convective rain, stratiform rain, snow, graupel, and ice) to assume its own physical characteristics as calculated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory microphysics scheme (like particle radius) and interact accordingly with the radiation scheme

-Updated the supersaturation parameter over ice in the data assimilation system.

The results show an improvement over biases previously found in the model.

Additionally major changes include:

-Updating data assimilation to take in NPOESS Preparatory Project Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite ozone

-Placing NOAA-19 Solar Back-scatter Ultraviolet Instrument/2 ozone in monitor

-Assimilating Meteosat-11 Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager Channels 5 and 6

-Updating quality control for GOES Satellite AMVs in preparation for GOES-17.

If GFSv15.1 is implemented in June, GFSv14 model output will remain available through September 30, 2019, on the NCEP Model Analyses and Guidance (MAG) Evaluation website and NOAA National Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS) Para-NOMADS Website.

Awful news

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/15/2019 at 8:20 AM, cyclone77 said:

The weather or the Tigers?  J/K :lmao:

At least the weather is cooperating 65 and rising with full sunshine

20190518_151749.thumb.jpg.fb6ff7ab20b7de558b9af6acfb4e3ce1.jpg

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Stebo said:

At least the weather is cooperating 65 and rising with full sunshine

20190518_151749.thumb.jpg.fb6ff7ab20b7de558b9af6acfb4e3ce1.jpg

Sun has been a rare commodity these days too, so looks like great weather for the game. Now the Tigers need to get a damn win!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Sun has been a rare commodity these days too, so looks like great weather for the game. Now the Tigers need to get a damn win!

Tbh I'm fine with them losing, this is a lost system so pile on the rocks as we head to the bottom of the sea.

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Warm up for a half a day, tons of rain, clouds, winds, mud, cool down, repeat....Since September. 6 straight months of garbage weather

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel bad for my fellow Toledo and Detroiters, the amount of warmth here in Columbus compared to back home is crazy. Lol my dad actually drove two hours south one day for dinner and mall just to be in 80 degree weather. Unreal how you still have not leafed out completely there

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I feel bad for my fellow Toledo and Detroiters, the amount of warmth here in Columbus compared to back home is crazy. Lol my dad actually drove two hours south one day for dinner and mall just to be in 80 degree weather. Unreal how you still have not leafed out completely there

Calling this May a gradient month would be an understatement. We've been pushing 90*F here for the past several days (10 degrees above normal) with plenty of sun. 

I know one person who's probably not complaining though, lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 5/5/2019 at 12:50 PM, CheeselandSkies said:

Just once during the spring I would like to feel a true tropical (like 80/75) airmass being advected in on a screaming LLJ the night before a high risk day.

My money's on it's not going to be this one. Chasers trying to stay optimistic for late May but I'll believe it when I see the >200kt GTG couplets on radar.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 

I suggest visiting Dallas in April/May.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like a ridge will form, but further southeast than I would like. Its going to be steamy and wet. Very 1993ish type of pattern. The RNA machine that started in February just won't stop. The wetness yry imby is terrible. The ground is beyond saturated, can't handle anymore.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone was panicking yesterday when watches and warnings were thrown up locally for some basic thundershowers. Spotters activated but I continued to work on a project in the garage.  The weather and those forecasting it need to get better.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×