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SENC

General Severe Weather

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Frequent CG lightning.  I suspect the gusts were around 40-ish at its height. Good start to spring 

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18 hours ago, ragtop50 said:

Did you take those pictures with a drone?

Yes 

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2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Yes 

Those were some amazing pics dude. Congrats on getting picked up by the BBC.

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SPC 30% looks good for MS/AL Saturday. Winds turn with height gradually which creates rather classic forecast hodographs. Low level turning is notable. Instability will rapidly increase as the warm front lifts north. Storm mode will be sloppy along the pre-frontal trough. However discrete supercells could/should develop along the WF in LA/MS/AL. 

Overnight Saturday night looks ugly on the ECMWF. Holds supercells, almost a line of pearls, overnight. Much as I like storms and chasing, I'm rooting against that overnight crap.

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On 4/8/2019 at 7:01 PM, eyewall said:

Had a bit of a pollen haboob in Chapel Hill/Durham:

56744717_10106116423679829_2460268489621

56723907_10106116423624939_7817521553158

 

And before the storms it looked like this in Durham:
56505467_10106115991720479_8719857726366

Dang Jeremy, you're famous!!!  You made national news and the DrudgeReport front page with these pics!  Hope there are some royalties with that.  You just received hundreds of millions of impressions!

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This weekend looks interesting (if you're into severe weather). The forecast discussion from GSP is worth a read as well. Looks like the majority of us will have something to track, especially by Sunday. 

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2 hours ago, ryan1234 said:

This weekend looks interesting (if you're into severe weather). The forecast discussion from GSP is worth a read as well. Looks like the majority of us will have something to track, especially by Sunday. 

Agreed. Also think the sometime around the 18th does as well. Euro and GFS both have a very nice looking troughs with deep surface lows coming into a similar location as the one this weekend. Two active looking periods to watch no doubt. Interested to see if the gulf can recover in time after the first system. Like the look of the 850's for both systems. AL/MS def should be watching those. 

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28 minutes ago, vman722 said:

Agreed. Also think the sometime around the 18th does as well. Euro and GFS both have a very nice looking troughs with deep surface lows coming into a similar location as the one this weekend. Two active looking periods to watch no doubt. Interested to see if the gulf can recover in time after the first system. Like the look of the 850's for both systems. AL/MS def should be watching those. 

Yes, I saw that as well. Definitely not a dull time period coming up, that's for sure. AL and MS should absolutely pay attention. But I wouldn't let my guard down either if I were in GA or the Carolina's. Without any wedging, (besides a few other details) that can't keep these storms going further east. Especially in an El-Nino spring. 

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Another good read for Sunday's event. Very active period upcoming. Once again, I feel like GSP AFD are the best in the country. Compared to many others. They really do a great job!

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
253 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region will
approach from the west on Friday and stall across the area on
Saturday. A second stronger system will bring storms to the area on
Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 pm EDT: A Wind Advisory has been posted for tonight at
elevations above 3500 feet in and around the Great Smoky Mountains.
There is good consensus of 50+ kt 850 mb flow in and near the
Smokies which should provide for decent high elevation gusts despite
the warm advection regime.

Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate through the near-term
forecast period as Atlantic and then Gulf moisture begin to converge
on the area. The stacked low pressure system over the central plains
this afternoon will migrate slowly over the upper Midwest tonight
through Friday. Meanwhile, boundary layer moisture will increase in
the southeasterly low-level flow tonight between offshore high
pressure and the strong cold front advancing into the MS River
Valley. Upslope cloudiness will quickly develop, similar to this
morning, but deeper moisture and better forcing will permit
blossoming rain showers, especially along the Blue Ridge around
midnight, and eventually across much of the area by daybreak.
Anticipate that the upslope precipitation will maximize overnight
into Friday morning, but with PoPs then transitioning into the
piedmont through the afternoon as deep layer southwesterly flow sets
up. In addition, upper-level divergence will improve from the west
over the mountains Friday afternoon to keep PoPs going there, while
instability and weak triggers will provide for better convective
coverage along the I-77 corridor through the latter part of the day.
At peak heating, sbCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are likely east
of the mountains, but mid-levels remain fairly warm so thunderstorms
should be mostly garden variety. Anticipate very warm mins some 15
degree or more above climo overnight, with maximum temperatures one
to two categories above climo despite the clouds Friday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Thu: As a mature low pressure system moves across the
central Great Lakes Friday night, a cold front will lay out along the
southern Appalachians per NAM/GFS. The EC depicts it making it past
the mountains, but the general expectation is that the front`s
progression into our area will be limited by the deep ridge over the
Southeast coast and western Atlantic, and as the next system develops
over Texas along the southern end of the front. Thus, we effectively
will be in the warm sector of the Great Lakes system overnight into
Saturday. Some degree of elevated instability will persist during
this time, within a juicy springtime airmass characterized by
Piedmont/valley temps in the 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. Except for
relatively weak isentropic upglide, however, there may not be much of
a triggering mechanism. A low PoP (and in many areas thunder) will
remain in the fcst. Deep-layer shear still will be in play on account
of a modest upper jet, so the potential does exist for a couple of
stronger cells producing marginally severe hail and wind,
particularly during peak heating Saturday afternoon.

Instability will wane again Saturday night. The aforementioned Texas
system will move into the mid-Mississippi Valley, tracking along the
Ohio River Sunday. The base of the parent shortwave will swing across
the Deep South. As 850mb flow increases ahead of it, precip again
will blossom along the Escarpment. Instability will redevelop after
daybreak Sunday, with similarly warm/moist sfc conditions. This is
particularly concerning given the increasing 850mb flow, culminating
in the 50-60 kt LLJ appearing likely to translate across the area as
sfc based instability peaks.  0-3km shear accordingly will be similar
in magnitude, and with hodographs above that layer being fairly
straight, QLCS segments appear to be a preferred storm mode. SHERB
values calculated from the GFS peak above 1 across the Piedmont.
Timing differences previously had limited our confidence, but the
latest 12z ECMWF is a little faster than the previous run, bringing
it more in line with the other synoptic models. There remain some
differences in how backed sfc winds will be, which keeps confidence
low as to the degree of tornado threat we will experience.
Nonetheless we anticipate parts of our CWFA will continue to be
highlighted for severe risk (esp. damaging wind) on the SPC outlooks
as we approach Sunday. As the low moves by to our north Sunday night,
the cold front will push through the area, and prog soundings suggest
we won`t totally be out of the woods for severe weather until that
occurs; it is possible we will have two rounds of activity, one
during peak heating and another immediately along the cold front. Of
course the latter will depend on how much energy remains following
the first round.

Much cooler temps will return to the mtns behind the front Monday
morning; precip most likely will end before any of it is able to
change to snow or produce rime ice.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Thursday: With the timing of the dry slot
overspreading the region still slated for Sunday night, progressive
drying within the post-frontal airmass is on tap for Monday.  Within
the well-mixed environment, max temperatures will average a few deg
F below the mid-April climo. Atop the SE CONUS for Tuesday, expect
rising upper heights and the passage of a llvl ridge axis providing
another dry day. Developing llvl return flow will boost maximums
well into the 70s.

Throughout Wednesday, as energy ripples eastward from the Southern
Plains and interacts with an increasing gulf moisture tap,
widespread convective rainfall is progged to blossom acrs the gulf
states. The preferred EC mass fields solution keeps pcpn chances
west/sw of the cwfa into Wednesday evening, so sensible wx for us
should be limited to just an increase in clouds and a further boost
to maximums. With deeper level forcing impinging upon the region
next Thursday, robust deep convection has the potential to become
widespread, stay tuned.

 

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Saturday it now appears supercells will make it east to the Delta (flat no trees) of east Louisiana and southeast Arkansas during daylight hours. Euro/NAM have a slow bias and even they put it in range. GFS and ARW (research version of WRF) has always rocked the Delta. SPC seems to agree.

Detailed discussion is in a Central/West thread.

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Deep South, I know, though a MRGL in Central/Piedmont N.C. 

Though look at that MDT! 

D3-DPrnXoAARmN5.jpg

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After the current band of storms passes through...

This HWO is for most of the RAH forecast area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through early evening. The primary severe weather threat 
will be locally strong to damaging wind gusts and large hail. A weak
tornado cannot be ruled out.

A cold front approaching from the west late Sunday into Sunday night will
be accompanied by a band of thunderstorms, some of which may be 
severe. The main severe weather threats will be damaging wind gusts, 
large hail and possibly a weak tornado.

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6 hours ago, LithiaWx said:

Nasty storms incoming to metro Atlanta on Sunday.  Looking pretty ominous now 

Ironically this region is long overdue for an enhanced risk of severe weather and tornado threat.  This idea of a cool air wedge always protecting North Georgia is silly.   It's still in the Deep South, which is known for severe weather. 

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4 hours ago, SENC said:

Deep South, I know, though a MRGL in Central/Piedmont N.C. 

Though look at that MDT! 

D3-DPrnXoAARmN5.jpg

If things stay the same, I expect we'll see a high risk with this one. The SPC day 1 criteria for high risk (45% with sig severe) would be reached. 

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If things stay the same, I expect we'll see a high risk with this one. The SPC day 1 criteria for high risk (45% with sig severe) would be reached. 

 

 

They make Saturday’s event seem more of an issue, than Sunday’s. That’s kinda surprising. Although, timing of the day may make it less of an issue than areas west of the Triangle. I definitely wouldn’t let me guard down anywhere in the Carolina’s for Sunday. It’s quite an impressive setup.

 

 

.

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At 645 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located 8 miles southwest of
Fuquay-Varina, or 10 miles northwest of Lillington, moving northeast
at 30 mph.
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TOG near Fuquay-Varina... was decent for a moment looking at CC

ETA: Solak posted image above 

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5 hours ago, kayman said:

Ironically this region is long overdue for an enhanced risk of severe weather and tornado threat.  This idea of a cool air wedge always protecting North Georgia is silly.   It's still in the Deep South, which is known for severe weather. 

Looks like a wind event with some embedded naders.  We will be on alert for sure. 

1A269B0C-3927-46AE-B1F0-FA3954313161.png

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4 hours ago, ryan1234 said:

 

 

They make Saturday’s event seem more of an issue, than Sunday’s. That’s kinda surprising. Although, timing of the day may make it less of an issue than areas west of the Triangle. I definitely wouldn’t let me guard down anywhere in the Carolina’s for Sunday. It’s quite an impressive setup.

 

 

.

True,  never let your guard down but from this map I see GA and WNC being the most under the gun in the forum.  Dynamics must be much less impressive for central and eastern NC on Sunday. It could change but I bet NE GA and WNC have maximum heating and dynamics coming together.  West Central GA may benefit from morning timing and escape the worst.  That said with enough dynamics, timing in West Central GA won’t matter. 

A757C4D3-AF72-429F-9B9D-1963CE1D7573.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

True,  never let your guard down but from this map I see a GA and WNC being the most under the gun in the forum.  Dynamics must be much less impressive for central and eastern NC. 

A757C4D3-AF72-429F-9B9D-1963CE1D7573.jpeg

Definitely, agree. However, if this thing speeds up, it might end up catching many by surprise. But this might up being one of those I-85 specials. If I were within 50 miles of 85, from just east of the AL/GA line to Charlotte and up to the Triad... I'd be ever so slightly nervous. Our area is well overdue for an outbreak.

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4 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

Definitely, agree. However, if this thing speeds up, it might end up catching many by surprise. But this might up being one of those I-85 specials. If I were within 50 miles of 85, from just east of the AL/GA line to Charlotte and up to the Triad... I'd be ever so slightly nervous. Our area is well overdue for an outbreak.

I don’t care for the term overdue, but it’s true. 

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Latest NAM is pretty nasty for most of the SE this weekend into Monday morning....not sure how bad it would truly be in NC Sunday night but the soundings and stuff look rough....night time tornadic storms are the worse.

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4 hours ago, Solak said:
At 645 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located 8 miles southwest of
Fuquay-Varina, or 10 miles northwest of Lillington, moving northeast
at 30 mph.

Was on 421 on my way to siler city around 6pm and the rain was incredible.glad I wasnt going through there when this happened.

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2 hours ago, downeastnc said:

Latest NAM is pretty nasty for most of the SE this weekend into Monday morning....not sure how bad it would truly be in NC Sunday night but the soundings and stuff look rough....night time tornadic storms are the worse.

Yep, NAM captured my attention earlier this evening. Will be a rough couple days across Dixie Alley.

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14 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Yep, NAM captured my attention earlier this evening. Will be a rough couple days across Dixie Alley.

SPC left tomorrow as a mod risk but man things could get ugly fast in Dixie alley and there will unfortunately probably be several long track strong tornados tomorrow, for us here in NC its much more murky....

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