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tiger_deF

NE snow event March 4th

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30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We need Chris to come in with his ensemble sensitivities.

Im no expert at reading these....but it does seem like the strength of the ridge between the two lows matters a great deal. 

 

SEN_1_NCEP_MSLP_1.5-4day.gif

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5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

This.  The official forecasts are not reflecting the amplitude of tonight.

I'm certainly not expecting a blockbuster, but I still think I manage to eek out between those numbers...  I def understand the concern regarding spacing and surpression, but I'm feeling this one.

 

Stay tuned for more!

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro continues to not like the idea of tonight's event forcing the other south...its gon' be wrong

So does the Euro continue to be the only decent guidance that is still amped for Sunday night?

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25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro continues to not like the idea of tonight's event forcing the other south...its gon' be wrong

6Z Looks south 

9B2FF115-8725-404C-8D99-D1C5D68CED90.png

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48 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Im no expert at reading these....but it does seem like the strength of the ridge between the two lows matters a great deal. 

 

SEN_1_NCEP_MSLP_1.5-4day.gif

I should say that the depth of the march 4th low and the ridging ahead of it are more important than the depth and position of this weekend's low. 

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45 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

He could wind up being right though... Euro has not been the Rock this season.  

In fact it's downright been bad at times...it's been wrong more than I've ever seen it be wrong in the past.

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

In fact it's downright been bad at times...it's been wrong more than I've ever seen it be wrong in the past.

It was all over during that January system if I remember right. Up the Hudson, then scraping the south coast, and so on. Not the stable model it once was.

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6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

It was all over during that January system if I remember right. Up the Hudson, then scraping the south coast, and so on. Not the stable model it once was.

Maybe it has a problem with the fast flow?

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12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Maybe it has a problem with the fast flow?

Possibly.  The Euro tends to struggle in La Nina winters and without a doubt this winter the pattern has been La Nina like at times in regards to fast Pacific flow

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Gfs definitely more northwest on 12z. It was way east at 6z so i believe that’s a good thing. Now let’s just get the EURO a little less tucked and then most will be happy.

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So verbatim those snows would bring me up to average for the season. That would put me in a quandary as far as the grade. Still thinking a D would be reasonable given the total shitshow the core of the season was.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The op GFS really tries to thread the frustration needle for this area.

Gfs is too far south imo.

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Just now, Sn0waddict said:

FV3 is a crush job. 

1.25" from haverhill to newark

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

So verbatim those snows would bring me up to average for the season. That would put me in a quandary as far as the grade. Still thinking a D would be reasonable given the total shitshow the core of the season was.

If both of these systems manage to completely screw some area of SNE, say Hamden/North Haven area, there's going to be some epic meltdowns...maybe even suicides....

If they pan out well and im in the 30s for snowfall, id give it a C/C-, they both suck, both misses, an F or D-. 

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With the shift in the morning models today for tomorrows storm, I'm not going to take any solution on these models seriously for Monday's storm until like Sunday afternoon. Even then I'll be on edge

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