RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, FXWX said: Widespread school cancellations will occur given timing... If confidence is high that amounts will verify, we will see schools announce this evening. With it ending west to east during the 4:30 to 7 am period, clean-up time for most schools will not be able to get facilities ready and side / back roads will still need some work. Even with delays, many districts have buses on the road by or shortly after 7 am... Some districts with 3 hour delays may have a shot... Yea I neglected to consider how soft we have gotten with school delays and cancellations. A rogue cumulous cloud can threaten a district’s decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Quick muse... does anyone else recall 2.5 days ago, the Euro had rain on this thing clear to southern VT/MHT latitudes? Impossible to recall through the layers of serotonin and dopamine, half kidding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea I neglected to consider how soft we have gotten with school delays and cancellations. A rogue cumulous cloud can threaten a district’s decision. I've been involved with this end of forecasting for 30+ years and things have certainly changed. But there are a multitude of factors in play now (input from DPW/Police/Politicians/Bus companies/insurance companies/tons of student drivers & PARENTS) that make it an easier and quicker call by superintendents. I do not know of a superintendent that wants to cancel school; but you have no idea about the conversations that go on from all the entities list above. It is almost always a damned if you do and damned if you don't situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Quick muse... does anyone else recall 2.5 days ago, the Euro had rain on this thing clear to southern VT/MHT latitudes? Two days ago it had 1.5" of QPF for Dendrite to Dryslot in CNE on the 12z. The funny thing is every other time it's been amped this season it's been correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 hours ago, Greg said: You were never getting 12" down there with those temps regardless of the brunt of precipitation. Your BL issues were prevalent. I never thought I'd get 4 inches, let alone 12. I would expect an inch of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Latest HRRR has heavy banding still in CT at 09z FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Two days ago it had 1.5" of QPF for Dendrite to Dryslot in CNE on the 12z. The funny thing is every other time it's been amped this season it's been correct. I was more intrigued by the cooling profile ..but yeah, I guess - wasn't sure whether that was related to amplitude specifics. It seems to me it's "looked" pretty much the same since last Tuesday ... flat wave potency rocketing along.. It's just that it seemed to want to rocket it at CON, NH ...now, E. of Logan. Through that correction east, it seemed to be similar lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 21 minutes ago, FXWX said: Widespread school cancellations will occur given timing... If confidence is high that amounts will verify, we will see schools announce this evening. With it ending west to east during the 4:30 to 7 am period, clean-up time for most schools will not be able to get facilities ready and side / back roads will still need some work. Even with delays, many districts have buses on the road by or shortly after 7 am... Some districts with 3 hour delays may have a shot... Really no incentive not to call it, a lot of districts in CT including my kids' school have built-in snow days and they sure as heck haven't burned through them this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 18 hours ago, powderfreak said: Well I appreciate you not banning me over the past several seasons as an offender. EPS matches app. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 This thing looks pretty sweet on satellite. Looking forward to tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Upton still has watches up for the area but ALB has warnings, think they would have hoisted by now, a couple hours from go time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I was more intrigued by the cooling profile ..but yeah, I guess - wasn't sure whether that was related to amplitude specifics. It seems to me it's "looked" pretty much the same since last Tuesday ... flat wave potency rocketing along.. It's just that it seemed to want to rocket it at CON, NH ...now, E. of Logan. Through that correction east, it seemed to be similar lows. Yeah to me the system looks identical as it did days ago, just coming out of the firehose at a different angle. Though the solutions a few days ago likely had larger max amounts as the Euro was advertising the "snow zone" north of the low as being widespread 1-1.5" QPF. Its good to see so many folks in the coastal regions south of the mountains getting a solid event though after getting shut out in Dec/Jan/Feb. Bookend winter. Nov and Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS matches app. Good lord im teetering on the edge of the r/s line. This is my last chance for snow. Good luck weenies! Im moving on to tornadoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, tavwtby said: Upton still has watches up for the area but ALB has warnings, think they would have hoisted by now, a couple hours from go time They started warning down here at 1pm when we were blue skies and 40. Cirrus just starting to creep in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: EPS matches app. DAMMIT GINXY! That site has a warning about posting those images. Better EPS look than 00z, broader strokes on the 6+ there. A true I-95 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 2 minutes ago, metagraphica said: They started warning down here at 1pm when we were blue skies and 40. Cirrus just starting to creep in now. my bad, didn't refresh from the morning update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted March 3, 2019 Author Share Posted March 3, 2019 Funny how bad the AccuWeather snow prediction is, two events ago they predicted 3-5 when we got a dusting, 4-6 when we got an inch and now they predict 2-4 right near the jack zone of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 54 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: For all the older weenies on here what's the largest snow bust you've ever had? 3/19/56. An inch or 2 forecasted and ended up with 1-2 feet. I was in 3rd grade. Apparently 12/26/47 which dumped 26.4 on KNYC was forecast to be flurries but at 1 year old I don’t remember those details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, metagraphica said: Anyone have an idea why Upton has the Winter Storm Warning in effect already for this area? Still blue sky, full sunshine and 40 degrees here. Radar is still showing precip back in PA. I could see a Watch until 6pm or so and then change to Warning. That ain’t how it works. Warnings are issued based on confidence not current weather. Only in rare circumstances are we allowed to hold watches into the last 12 hours before snow starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: That ain’t how it works. Warnings are issued based on confidence not current weather. Only in rare circumstances are we allowed to hold watches into the last 12 hours before snow starts. Thanks much for the explanation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: 3/19/56. An inch or 2 forecasted and ended up with 1-2 feet. I was in 3rd grade. Apparently 12/26/47 which dumped 26.4 on KNYC was forecast to be flurries but at 1 year old I don’t remember those details. Mine is probably 12/23/97....1-3" forecast and we got 18". 12/11-12/92 was really bad too....the big storm part was forecast well but they thought mostly rain...3-6" was forecast and we got almost 3 feet. Lol. The 2/7/03 storm I recall had advisories out for like 3-5/4-6 and a stripe just south of BOS back into RI had 12-18" of fluff. BOS itself was maybe just under a foot. If we were to get a positive bust in this storm, it would likely be of the fluff bomb variety like that '03 storm rather than a sheer QPF bust...someone goes 18 to 1 ratios in a band at 28-30F at 3"/hr or something for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBrosForever Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: That ain’t how it works. Warnings are issued based on confidence not current weather. Only in rare circumstances are we allowed to hold watches into the last 12 hours before snow starts. And we just got ours. 4-7" heavy wet stuff to boot, or to plow. or whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 The 18z NAM is going to have a filthy fronto band move through. It's going to rip and rip heavy for a good 3-4 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: The 18z NAM is going to have a filthy fronto band move through. It's going to rip and rip heavy for a good 3-4 hours It looks f'ing fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 That's a heck of a change for that semi-populated area known as "tri-state" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 It's an old hat conversation topic but yeah... standardization is definitely changed wrt to perception of public safety over the last several decades. It seemed the heftier winters of the mid 1990s really began that trend in culture - and I wonder if it's native to this region of the country, or if all regions that now rejoice in time off at the drop of a sleet pellet. I went to high school back in the 1980s ... and, though we commiserate upon occasion how that tortured decade probably earned its self the apex sore butt award for very worst for winter enthusiast (argumentative of course....) there were times when we did awken to say ... a half foot at 4 am. I recall walking to school in tire cake ruts in the roads of Acton, because few streets had sidewalks, and the ones that did were not getting plowed until sometimes days later. Very rarely did we ever get a day like that off from school. Now? heh... wow... forecasts for winter storms that have higher bust potential are scrollin' tickers for canilations like there must be an air-raid circa 1943 going on... 12 hours before hand, while cirrus has yet to even obscure the stars. I began to notice with my nieces and nephews that were raised in the area, ...oh, circa 2004 to 2010, that lesser and lesser criteria of weather inclemency was needed for delays and time off. I have one niece still in high school, and two years ago they had to attend classes until a week before the 4th of July to make up for all the snow days... I work for the University of Massachusetts circuit of campuses and along side, many colleagues have kids of various age ranges. They're consummately complaining about having to hire special sitters for what is in reality ... really uninspired weather. - I mean, we're talking snow stops at 2am, roads are plowed and just wet, with cling glops falling from the trees, and they gotta work from home because their kids are there. I could see how that would be a pain in the ass... and, we are a culture of litigates. For all our crowning achievements, conceits and arrogances... it seems there is a dual nature behind the time off thing - and it's not just school. My work ops for WFH with pretty pallid reasons, too, sometimes. I think its a collective want that everyone's like "meme" bought into? They act like its a pain, but they want it. And I wonder if the law suit fears is kinda of an excuse to get to sleep in an hour and scratch bum through boxer shorts over home-brew coffee while clicking through morning emails from a cushy couch. For others, ...they need a sitter. But I don't doubt we are in fact litigiously preoccupied, ..perhaps to avoid having to pay for our own mistakes - we abuse the courts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 Pretty sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 3, 2019 Share Posted March 3, 2019 10-14'' in interior SE MA is not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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